The Marquette Poll has been reliable these last few elections.
The key takeaways seem reasonable to me (regarding Wisconsin).
Third party candidates typically fade, and this poll reflects that development.
Finally, the presidential race is so divisive, and coverage of it so impossible to avoid, that one finds local matters (even important ones) relatively unnoticed by comparison.
There are important local races, including a school referendum for Whitewater, but I’ve come to think that in this presidential year, downballot contests will be a matter of (1) level turnout driven by the national race, and (2) the particular composition of that turnout. That’s caused me to put off until after the election some discussions that I wanted (and originally planned) to post before November 8th.
Intense national coverage seems, to me, to obsure everything else. Better an extended analysis in a quieter time. One can be patient; there’s all the time in the world.
In September, a live video cam of an eagle’s nest seemed to capture something else walking below on the ground. There’s now excitement that this might be a recording of a Sasquatch. (In the embedded video, the action occurs in the upper right corner of the recording, and is enhanced and placed in a circle in the center of the screen.)
Here are three polls on politics: the winner on the first presidential debate, the upcoming vice-presidential debate, and candidates’ releasing tax returns.
I’ve never run more than one poll at a time, but there are a few current worth pursing at the same time.
Obvious point: these polls are not – and have never been presented as – representative surveys of a community.
(Many of the polls that I publish are intentionally one-sided or simply fun, e.g., extraterrestrial visits, absurd behaviors, etc. That’s one reason the results are often so lopsided, but whatever the result, it’s not a representative sample of the community.
One serious remark: if the City of Whitewater intends to use polling to survey residents, as she is now paying to do, those methods and results are reasonably and legitimately the subjects of a serious critique.)
Carpenter obviously pushed the elevator’s help button also; her tweet was a way to hold Amtrak publicly accountable at the time.
So, was Amtrak surprisingly slow in its response, about as expected, or surprisingly fast in reply (where about expected and surprisingly fast are about your estimation of Amtrak’s abilities, not whether someone should be rescued promptly). Needless to say, the elevator should have been working properly so that passengers never risked being stuck inside.
All thirteen are instructive, but tips 1 and 2 are especially useful guidelines:
Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.” Any poll described thusly is likely to be an outlier, and outlier polls are usually wrong. Remember those American Research Group polls that had Republican John Kasich climbing rapidly in primary after primary? They were pretty much all wrong; stunners usually are. That said, sometimes they’re right, such as the Des Moines Register poll that projected a large Joni Ernst victory in the 2014 Iowa Senate race, when other polls showed a tighter race. So don’t dismiss outliers, either.
Instead, take an average. I don’t just say this because it’s what we do at FiveThirtyEight. I say it because aggregating polls, especially in general elections, is the method that leads to the most accurate projection of the eventual result most often. Put simply, it’s the best measure of the state of the race….
The full list of tips is well worth heeding. There’s no need to be buffeted about by sketchy surveys and dodgy data; these two months will have their share of both.
Crews used a jackhammer and other tools to break through a wall from inside a restaurant on the first floor of one of the buildings. A paramedic was lowered on a rope to check on the man before other paramedics led him to safety, said Emily Schaffer, another spokeswoman with the Department of Public Safety.
The man was bleeding but conscious, and he waved to TV news cameras signaling he was OK as he was wheeled on a gurney to an ambulance. He broke his ankle in the fall and was being treated at a hospital.
Police were considering whether to file criminal charges and did not immediately release the man’s name, Schaffer said.
Chad Brooks, the franchisee who owns the Qdoba restaurant whose wall was broken through, said the eatery will probably be closed for a couple of weeks.
How should one think of the student’s actions: a romantic (but failed) gesture or a reckless act?
The latest Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 8.4.16 to 8.7.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Occasionally, I’ve heard some Democrats complain about pollster Charles Franklin (notably Ed Garvey among them), but Franklin’s surveys have had a generally good reputation.
Clinton-Trump, Among LV:
Among likely voters in WI, Clinton 52%, Trump 37%, with 10% supporting neither. In July, it was 45%/41%/14%. #mulawpoll