Rural America Turns Against Trump

The Scene from Whitewater, Wisconsin One often reads that it’s rural America that elected – and will always stand by – Donald Trump.

In fact, Trump’s support in rural communities is in decline. Chris Kahn and Tim Reid report Trump’s popularity is slipping in rural America:

According to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll, the Republican president’s popularity is eroding in small towns and rural communities where 15 percent of the country’s population lives. The poll of more than 15,000 adults in “non-metro” areas shows that they are now as likely to disapprove of Trump as they are to approve of him.

In September, 47 percent of people in non-metro areas approved of Trump while 47 percent disapproved. That is down from Trump’s first four weeks in office, when 55 percent said they approved of the president while 39 percent disapproved.

The poll found that Trump has lost support in rural areas among men, whites and people who never went to college. He lost support with rural Republicans and rural voters who supported him on Election Day.

Where his support was once dominant, he’s now only at parity with those in opposition. Trump’s weaker where he cannot afford to be weaker. It’s easy to see why his national support is so low – he’s losing ground even in places once favorable to him.

All those MAGA signs won’t save an autocratic, lying incompetent whose most important supporters – truly – sit in the Kremlin. No crudely designed and cheaply made hats will prove enough. However long the conflict – and it is likely to be long – those in opposition and resistance have as their armament centuries-long political, philosophical, and religious traditions on this continent that will prove overwhelming against Trumpism.

Marquette Law Poll, March 2017 (First Marquette Poll Since 2016 Election)

Selected results below, from among Wisconsin registered voters; full results are available online.

Trump Approval

Trump Disappproval

Trump’s Judgment

Trump’s Concern

Congressional Health Care Legislation

How Description of Law Influences Respondents’ Views

Undocumented Immigrants

Mexican Border Wall

Marquette Law Poll Results (Final 2016 Election Edition)

The final 2016 Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here key findings from the 10.26.16 to 10.31.16 poll (the full results are available online).

Clinton-Trump, Among LV:

Johnson-Stein, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson, Among LV:

Anderson for Senate, Among LV:

Pres. Obama Approval:

Gov. Walker Approval:

Key Takeaway:

A few quick points:

  • The Marquette Poll has been reliable these last few elections.
  • The key takeaways seem reasonable to me (regarding Wisconsin).
  • Third party candidates typically fade, and this poll reflects that development.
  • Finally, the presidential race is so divisive, and coverage of it so impossible to avoid, that one finds local matters (even important ones) relatively unnoticed by comparison.
  • There are important local races, including a school referendum for Whitewater, but I’ve come to think that in this presidential year, downballot contests will be a matter of (1) level turnout driven by the national race, and (2) the particular composition of that turnout.   That’s caused me to put off until after the election some discussions that I wanted (and originally planned) to post before November 8th.
  • Intense national coverage seems, to me, to obsure everything else.  Better an extended analysis in a quieter time.  One can be patient; there’s all the time in the world.

Friday Poll: What Was That?

In September, a live video cam of an eagle’s nest seemed to capture something else walking below on the ground. There’s now excitement that this might be a recording of a Sasquatch. (In the embedded video, the action occurs in the upper right corner of the recording, and is enhanced and placed in a circle in the center of the screen.)

See, Some see Bigfoot photo-bombing Michigan eagle’s nest cam.

What was that?

Marquette Law Poll Results (Early October ’16 Edition)

The early October Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are two key findings from the 10.6.16 to 10.9.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon).

Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV:

Friday Poll: Playing Pokemon Go in Parliament

So Norway’s Prime Minister, Erna Solberg, was caught playing Pokemon in that country’s parliament during a heated debate. What do you think?

Friday Poll: Three Political Polls

Here are three polls on politics: the winner on the first presidential debate, the upcoming vice-presidential debate, and candidates’ releasing tax returns.

I’ve never run more than one poll at a time, but there are a few current worth pursing at the same time.

Obvious point: these polls are not – and have never been presented as – representative surveys of a community.

(Many of the polls that I publish are intentionally one-sided or simply fun, e.g., extraterrestrial visits, absurd behaviors, etc. That’s one reason the results are often so lopsided, but whatever the result, it’s not a representative sample of the community.

One serious remark: if the City of Whitewater intends to use polling to survey residents, as she is now paying to do, those methods and results are reasonably and legitimately the subjects of a serious critique.)

Marquette Law Poll Results (Mid-September ’16 Edition)

The mid-September Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 9.15.16 to 9.18.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon).

Clinton-Trump, Among LV:

Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV:

Friday Poll: Amtrak’s Seven-Month Response Time

Amanda Carpenter, a sometime political operative and current CNN commentator, became stuck in an Amtrak station elevator in February, and she posted on Twitter at the time to describe her situstion. Seven months later, an Amtrak representative tweeted back to ask if she still needed help:


Carpenter obviously pushed the elevator’s help button also; her tweet was a way to hold Amtrak publicly accountable at the time.

So, was Amtrak surprisingly slow in its response, about as expected, or surprisingly fast in reply (where about expected and surprisingly fast are about your estimation of Amtrak’s abilities, not whether someone should be rescued promptly). Needless to say, the elevator should have been working properly so that passengers never risked being stuck inside.

Polls, Polls, Polls

In the weeks ahead, we’re sure to hear about dramatic results! or shocking details! from presidential or statewide polls. 

Over at FiveThirtyEight, they’ve 13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro.

All thirteen are instructive, but tips 1 and 2 are especially useful guidelines:

  1. Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.” Any poll described thusly is likely to be an outlier, and outlier polls are usually wrong. Remember those American Research Group polls that had Republican John Kasich climbing rapidly in primary after primary? They were pretty much all wrong; stunners usually are. That said, sometimes they’re right, such as the Des Moines Register poll that projected a large Joni Ernst victory in the 2014 Iowa Senate race, when other polls showed a tighter race. So don’t dismiss outliers, either.
  2. Instead, take an average. I don’t just say this because it’s what we do at FiveThirtyEight. I say it because aggregating polls, especially in general elections, is the method that leads to the most accurate projection of the eventual result most often. Put simply, it’s the best measure of the state of the race….

The full list of tips is well worth heeding. There’s no need to be buffeted about by sketchy surveys and dodgy data; these two months will have their share of both.

Friday Poll – Vladimir Putin: Liar or Ignoramus?

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he has no idea who hacked the Democratic Party’s email server. (“But I want to tell you again, I don’t know anything about it, and on a state level Russia has never done this.”) Do you believe him?

Is Putin simply ignorant of the matter, or do you think he’s lying?

Embed from Getty Images

Marquette Law Poll Results (Late August Edition)

The latest Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 8.25.16 to 8.28.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon).

Clinton-Trump, Among LV:

Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among RV:

Feingold-Johnson, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV:

Friday Poll: Stuck Between Buildings, Romantic or Reckless?

Recently, a University of Pittsburgh student tried to impress a woman by leaping from one building to another, but “instead fell into a narrow gap between the buildings near campus and had to be rescued.” He survived the fall:

Crews used a jackhammer and other tools to break through a wall from inside a restaurant on the first floor of one of the buildings. A paramedic was lowered on a rope to check on the man before other paramedics led him to safety, said Emily Schaffer, another spokeswoman with the Department of Public Safety.

The man was bleeding but conscious, and he waved to TV news cameras signaling he was OK as he was wheeled on a gurney to an ambulance. He broke his ankle in the fall and was being treated at a hospital.

Police were considering whether to file criminal charges and did not immediately release the man’s name, Schaffer said.

Chad Brooks, the franchisee who owns the Qdoba restaurant whose wall was broken through, said the eatery will probably be closed for a couple of weeks.

How should one think of the student’s actions: a romantic (but failed) gesture or a reckless act?

Friday Poll: Baboon v. Human

A girl and her family visiting a zoo in North Carolina learned that baboons can throw objects with surprising accuracy. See, The shocking moment young girl has POOP thrown in her face by agitated baboon at North Carolina zoo @ Daily Mail. (The video includes vulgar language after family realizes what’s just happened.)

I’ve set this poll so that respondents have to choose between the baboon and the human: there’s no middle ground in a confrontation so epic, so titanic, as this one.

What do you think?

Friday Poll: Hidden Monkey on Plane

If a passenger sneaks a monkey on to a plane, what should authorities do?

On a flight from Ohio to Nevada, a flight crew discovered that a passenger was concealing a service monkey:

Frontier Airlines spokesman Richard Oliver says the incident happened Tuesday night on a flight from Columbus, Ohio, to Las Vegas.

Oliver says the passenger broke policy by not informing the airline that he was bringing a service animal onboard, and then refused to turn over documents verifying the monkey’s status.

McCarran International Airport spokeswoman Christine Crews says law enforcement officials met up with the plane and determined that the monkey was a certified service animal.

Oliver says the animal was brought surreptitiously onto the plane in a duffel bag and never became loose or uncontained during the flight.

SeeHidden monkey on Las Vegas-bound flight causes stir @ Yahoo! News.

Latest Marquette Law Poll Results 

The latest Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 8.4.16 to 8.7.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon).  Occasionally, I’ve heard some Democrats complain about pollster Charles Franklin (notably Ed Garvey among them), but Franklin’s surveys have had a generally good reputation. 

Clinton-Trump, Among LV:

Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson, Among LV:

Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV: