I’ll take the topics from yesterday’s election preview post in reverse order.

Wisconsin.

Justice Prosser did far better than I guessed; Asst. A.G. Kloppenburg certainly didn’t win comfortably. I would have thought Kloppenburg by 2-3 percent, outside the range of a recount.

There will be a recount, with results now showing Kloppenburg with 739,589 and Prosser with 739,354, a mere 235 vote-lead for Kloppenburg (with the small Town of Lake Mills still counting some ballots).

However this develops, Kloppenburg did well against a sitting justice, and Prosser did well despite considerable criticism.

This morning, I heard a representative of the conservative MacIver Institute declaring Prosser’s performance better than anyone expected, and a disappointment for the left. One part of that is wrong, the other part yet decided.

It’s simply not true that no one saw a solid Prosser showing. Conservative bloggers, James Wigderson among them, thought Prosser would win a close race, and right-leaning bloggers were confident in a Prosser win of some sort. At the same time, some liberal bloggers guessed that the race would be too close to call (like Jack Craver at the Isthmus), again refuting the idea that no one thought Prosser would do well.

I thought that Kloppenburg would have done better, but others got it about right.

On the spokesman’s second point, that the results are a disappointment for the left, we’ll know more … after a recount.

There were very few demonstrations on the right, and those that took place were small, yet still conservatives did well statewide with Prosser. There’s not Nixon’s supposed (large) silent majority in favor of the right, but there may be the slenderest of majorities.

For conservatives, there’s reason to hope that they can hold on at the state level. (That won’t be true in some counties were recalls will take place.)

Former mayor Soglin did win in Madison, ousting the more moderate, soon-to-be Former Mayor Dave [Cieslewicz].

In Milwaukee County, Abele did trounce Republican Jeff Stone.

Walworth County.

If you’re a Walworth County conservative, you must feel great today. Prosser won with 14,233 votes to Kloppenburg’s 8,929. In 2008, Gableman beat Butler 8,122 to 5,655 and in 2009 Abrahamson defeated Koschnick 6,735 to 5,464.

Prosser alone received more votes than both candidates combined from either of the last two Walworth County totals for our highest court.

City of Whitewater.

At-large council candidate Marilyn Kienbaum had a solid showing at 1804, with just more than the number of votes for the citywide municipal judge, Richard Kelly at 1792.

Quite a few Kloppenburg voters must have also voted for Kienbaum and Kelly, neither of whom is like Kloppenburg ideologically.

Local trumps ideology.

Local, I’d say, for the city proper; I don’t think the same has been, or would be, true of an Assembly race.

Before the polls close, a few questions of note about the spring election for the City of Whitewater, Walworth County, and Wisconsin.

City of Whitewater

What’s Whitewater’s turnout today?

Assuming that JoAnnne Kloppenburg carries Whitewater, by what margin will she do so? (If she can’t carry places like the City of Whitewater, she’s likely in trouble regardless of turnout in Madison and Milwaukee.)

How does Kloppenburg run in the city compared with the vote for at-large councilmember Marilyn Kienbaum? No one — that’s no one on the planet — thinks they’re ideologically similar. If Kienbaum receives more votes than Prosser’s total, then she will have received a good number of pro-Kloppenburg votes. Prosser and Kienbaum would be more likely to have similar totals, but I doubt that will happen. I’d guess Kienbaum will get the support of both Prosser and Kloppenburg voters, indicating that ideology only goes so far locally.

Walworth County

How strong is Prosser in Walworth County? If he runs poorly in a GOP-dominated county, what does it say about Republican enthusiasm?

Wisconsin

In Madison, if former mayor Paul Soglin wins, it will be on the strength of a marked left-of-center turnout, among voters who find even Mayor Dave [Cieslewicz] not progressive enough. Either candidate is left-of-center, but how big (and frustrated) will the Madison electorate be? Until Gov. Walker’s restrictions on collective bargaining, I would have been certain that Mayor Dave would be re-elected. I’m not certain now, even though both mayoral candidates oppose the governor’s plan.

In Milwaukee County, Abele will likely trounce Jeff Stone. Prosser will do poorly there, too.

Where does that leave Prosser?

It leaves him needing strong turnouts in GOP counties like Walworth, and even stronger turnouts in GOP counties up north. If he gets that support, it won’t be from people who’ve previously demonstrated it, as demonstrations on the right have been small, and pro-Prosser gatherings tiny. To believe Prosser will prevail today, one would have to believe that there truly is a silent majority in favor of Prosser, and of Governor Walker.

Possible, but improbable. It’s more likely that recent political polls are accurate, and Walker has lost support since the November election.

I’d guess that Kloppenburg will win comfortably.

We’ll see.