I’ve posted before about predictive political markets. (See, Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets, and later I started following the market at Intrade.com.)
What do they say for today, as of this writing, based on the trading preferences of large numbers of buyers and sellers at Intrade.com?
Here we go — Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.
Will these traders prove correct? Let’s assume that they’re wrong about a given state, say Ohio — a big place, with 20 electoral votes. Right now, they have bought and sold in a way that says they think Ohio will go to Obama. Even if one or two states slip from one column to another, the overall prediction would be a decisive one in favor of Obama.
(Note: One need not trade in all states; one presumably trades in states about which one has more confidence. The openness of the market, and freedom to pick a choose a single state, is an opportunity for knowledgeable traders. This should only strengthen confidence in the totals.)
They might be wrong; markets are not flawless, just generally better at predictions or allocations than competing predictive or regulatory schemes.
It’s a fairly decisive result traders expect, though.
I’ll offer a guess — traders are right, except for Ohio, so totals of Obama 344, McCain 194.
This means that I’m betting against the Ohio market, but otherwise with these traders on the results. (Traders have less overall confidence in the Ohio result, though, so it’s not as wild as saying that New York will go for McCain.)
Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.