Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a university professor and author of the excellent book, The Black Swan, contends that our economy is worse than it was two years ago. See, Debt Spreading ‘Like a Cancer’: Black Swan Author.
(I’ve read Taleb’s Black Swan; it’s an excellent book.)
Here’s Taleb’s assessment:
The economic situation today is drastically worse than a couple years ago, and the euro is doomed as a concept, Nassim Taleb, professor and author of the bestselling book “The Black Swan,” told CNBC on Thursday.
“We had less debt cumulatively (two years ago), and more people employed. Today, we have more risk in the system, and a smaller tax base,” Taleb said.
“Banks balance sheets are just as bad as they were” two years ago when the crisis began and “the quality of the risks hasn’t improved,” he added….
The Obama administration’s efforts to pull the US out of recession haven’t succeeded, according to Taleb. “It’s not that they make mistakes, it’s that they almost get nothing right.” Moreover, a second major stimulus package may be futile, he warned.
“Obama promised us 8 percent unemployment through stimulus. It hasn’t worked.” There are significantly more liabilities in the US than in other countries around the world, he said.
Just as the stimulus failed nationally, it’s done nothing for us locally. I know, and you know, that we’ve millions in taxpayers’ money for an Innovation Center (and millions more in added debt from municipal bonds). These several millions are useful for producing headlines, not improving bottom lines. One might just as well consider the entire amount a publisher’s advance on a work of fantasy or science fiction.
There’s a way out for us: a huge reduction in the size of local government, a reduction in taxes, and the abolition of many fees and permit charges. I’ll offer suggested cuts in the fall, during municipal budget season (and publish readers’ suggestions, too).
We have huge opportunities before us, if we’d only abandon the failed, government-centric approach that’s left us lagging nearby communities.
If we don’t reform, then we will have only ourselves to blame.