Although Trump carried Wisconsin in ‘16, and although 2020 is likely to see a hard fight against him in Wisconsin, Trump has significant obstacles he did not have in the last election.
On Twitter, Joe Handrick (@joeminocqua) offers a sound analysis of Trump’s electoral position in the Badger State. Embedded below is the first of Handrick’s five tweets in a thread. (Jump over to Twitter to see the rest.)
For Trump, 1.4 million votes was enough in 2016. But remember Clinton fell 238,000 votes from Obama. If 2020 turnout returns to 2012 levels, Trump will need 1,515,000 to win. That's 110,000 more than he received in '16 or an increase of 8%. #wiright
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) January 19, 2020
No one should underestimate Trump; at the same time, no one should doubt that Trump has meaningful electoral vulnerabilities.