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Economy
Economy
Weak Jobs Data Dash Hopes of Accelerating Recovery
by JOHN ADAMS •
We are likely to find ourselves in the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression. The way out is to allow people to keep more of their own earnings. There’s a new unemployment report out, and it shows an increase in national unemployment to 9.8%, with the “broader measure of the unemployment rate,…
Economy
Few Businesses Sprout, With Even Fewer Jobs – WSJ.com
by JOHN ADAMS •
In the early months of the economic recovery, start-ups of job-creating companies have failed to keep pace with closings, and even those concerns that do get launched are hiring less than in the past. The number of companies with at least one employee fell by 100,000, or 2%, in the year that ended March 31,…
Economy
Number of the Week: $10.2 Trillion in Global Borrowing – Real Time Economics – WSJ
by JOHN ADAMS •
Aside from Japan, which has a huge debt hangover from decades of anemic growth, the U.S. is the most extreme case. Next year, the U.S. government will have to find $4.2 trillion. That’s 27.8% of its annual economic output, up from 26.5% this year. By comparison, crisis-addled Greece needs $69 billion, or 23.8% of its…
Economy
Broader U-6 Rate at 17%: The Long-Term Unemployed and the Dark Side of Jobs Report – WSJ
by JOHN ADAMS •
The U.S. jobless rate was flat at 9.6% in October, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment dropped slightly to 17%, possibly due to long-term unemployed dropping out of the labor force…. The comprehensive gauge of labor underutilization, known as the “U-6″ for its data classification by the Labor Department, accounts for people who have…
Economy, Poverty
Nitty Gritty Numbers Suggest Downward Spiral – Forbes.com
by JOHN ADAMS •
In unemployment, emergency benefits to extend 99 weeks (almost two years) of unemployment benefits are running out or for some 4 million to 5 million people from December through April. This is proof positive that we are on the cusp of a deepening poverty at the very moment of political stalemate. Rosenberg [David Rosenberg of…
Economy
Economists React: Growth Remains ‘Too Weak’ – Real Time Economics – WSJ
by JOHN ADAMS •
Nowhere near enough: Real GDP is still 0.8% below the prior cyclical peak, which was 11 quarters ago. Such a result is considerably worse than prior cyclical experience. Other “recent” recessions (since the 1970s) show that real GDP is usually more than 6% above the previous peak by now. Softer than usual consumption, housing, commercial…
Economy, Government Spending
Reason.tv: Where are the Jobs? The Parallels between Today and the Great Depression
by JOHN ADAMS •
Reason considers our economic situation today and compares it with one from the ’30s. I don’t think the New Deal brought private jobs back, but I will say this much for FDR (as I have before): his New Dealers cared more about results than any local official hawking an empty idea like a so-called ‘Innovation…
Economy
Goldman Sachs: U.S. GDP Forecasts Are Still Way Too High
by JOHN ADAMS •
Forecasts from Goldman Sachs of growth way too low for a meaningful recovery — We expect US growth to remain sluggish next year, as the temporary boosts from inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus wanes while final demand remains weak. If our view is correct, 2011 consensus expectations will move significantly over the months to come.…
Economy, Government Spending
Reason.tv: Porker of the Month for October 2010 – Debbie Wasserman Shultz
by JOHN ADAMS •
It’s time for Reason’s Porker of the Month, and this month’s winner is Debbie Wasserman Shultz. Reason explains: Reason.tv presents: Citizens Against Government Waste’s Porker of the Month for October 2010: Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz! What do you do when you and your friends in congress go on a taxpayer funded spending binge, only to…
Economy, Government Spending, Politics, Taxes/Taxation
Number of the Week: Slow Growth Adds to Deficit – Real Time Economics – WSJ
by JOHN ADAMS •
If, for example, the U.S. economy grows at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 1.7% — about the rate it’s currently growing — government debt will reach 122% of annual economic output as of 2015, up from 93% now. Annual growth of 2.7% would cut that estimate to 110%. The difference equates to about $2.2 trillion,…
Economy, Government Spending, Libertarians, Planning
Wait, Herbert Hoover Wasn’t a Libertarian? – Reason Magazine
by JOHN ADAMS •
No, he wasn’t! Yet, one often hears — erroneously — that Hoover was a laissez faire Republican, and that Roosevelt’s election marked a sharp break from those policies. That’s not only false, but wildly false. Hoover was a big-government Republican. (It was Coolidge — who had numerous disagreements with Hoover — who was a defender…
Economy, Free Markets
“Free Market” Doesn’t Mean “Pro-Business” – Art Carden – The Economic Imagination – Forbes
by JOHN ADAMS •
No, it certainly doesn’t. Art Carden, at Forbes‘s Economic Imagination blog, explains the difference: Is a “free market” agenda the same thing as a “pro-business” agenda? Economists of a libertarian persuasion find this frustrating because our enthusiasm for free markets is often mistaken as enthusiasm for specific businesses or corporate interests. But just because something…
Economy
Foreclosure forecast is dim — Walworth County Today
by JOHN ADAMS •
Foreclosure filings on Walworth County homes could jump nearly 11 percent this year, a bad indicator for the middle class, the group that’s struggling to keep up with mortgage payments. The trend appears to contradict talk this summer that the housing market was turning around and the recession subsiding. See, Foreclosure forecast is dim —…