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Conspiracy Theories, Daily Bread, Elections, Eric Hovde, U.S. Senate, US Senate Race 2024, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.15.24: Eric Hovde’s Bad Math

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 54. Sunrise is 6:47, and sunset is 4:31, for 9 hours, 44 minutes of daytime. The moon is full with 99.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1777, after 16 months of debate, the Continental Congress approves the Articles of Confederation (only coming into force after ratification in 1781).

While Eric Hovde lost the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin (see below), he’s doing better with conspiracy theorists on X:

Social media posts about election fraud in Wisconsin have surged since Election Day, surpassing all other battleground states, according to data collected by PeakMetrics, a software analytics company.

Between Nov. 6 and Nov. 12, the number of posts on X, formerly known as Twitter, mentioning election fraud in Wisconsin surged from 2,570 to 22,589 — an approximately 789% increase, according to the report. There has been no evidence to suggest voter fraud is a common issue in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde has been among those sowing doubts about voting integrity on X following the election, which he lost to Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

See Maia Pandey and Alex Groth, Posts on X about Wisconsin election fraud have increased nearly tenfold since Election Day, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 15, 2024.

Two days ago, I posted on a headline that nicely summarized Eric Hovde’s claims about his election loss: One week after Senate race was called for Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde admits he lost, but won’t concede.

Hovde’s claims about his loss to Tammy Baldwin are easily debunked, as Ricardo Torres writes at the Journal Sentinel:

Hovde went on to say that at 4 a.m. Milwaukee updated its count to include roughly 108,000 absentee ballots and that Baldwin won “nearly 90% of those ballots.”

“Statistically, this outcome seems improbable,” Hovde said. “As it didn’t match the pattern from same day voting in Milwaukee, where I received 22% of the vote.”  

….

Absentee ballots are just a portion of the total votes in any election. But since Hovde is focused on absentee ballots, it’s fairly easy to see his claim is incorrect by going to the city of Milwaukee’s election results page. It should be noted that some absentee voters chose third party candidates for U.S. senate or skipped that race.

Milwaukee received 108,964  absentee ballots by Nov. 5, according to the unofficial count. 

Of that group, Baldwin received 88,229 and Hovde received 17,699 absentee ballots. 

So Baldwin got about 80.9% of the absentee vote and Hovde got about 16.2% of it. 

Clearly Baldwin did not get “nearly 90%” of the absentee ballot vote.

Baldwin’s absentee ballot vote in Milwaukee was similar by proportion to her Election Day in-person vote in Milwaukee. Torres continues:

On Election Day itself, there were 140,043 votes cast in Milwaukee, according to the unofficial count. Of that number Baldwin received 102,598 and Hovde received 29,574.

So Baldwin pulled down 73.2% of the vote on Election Day compared to Hovde’s 21.1% of that vote. 

See Ricardo Torres, Fact check: Hovde’s claim Baldwin won ‘nearly 90%’ of absentee votes is a flop, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 15, 2024.

The wide disparities that Hovde claims are false: Baldwin did somewhat better with absentee ballots, but there was no statistically improbable result as Hovde claims.

Previously at FREE WHITEWATER: Describing Eric Hovde Accurately, Hovde’s Out-of-State Bank Recipient of Bogus Positive Reviews, Hovde Rationalizes His Ignorance and Sloth, California Carpetbagger with a Utah Bank Doesn’t Bother to Read Farm Bill on Which Wisconsin Agriculture Relies, Hovde & Baldwin, Hovde Spreads Lies About Hurricane Response (Of Course He Does), These Aren’t Subtle Men, Eric Hovde’s Banking Deal with a Cartel-Linked Mexican Bank, Hovde’s Evident, Ignorant Racism, Eric Hovde Treats Wisconsin as a Side Hustle,  It’s Not Going So Well for Hovde, Eric Hovde Should Fire His Political Consultants and Hire a Therapist, Tim Michels 2.0 Eric Hovde Announces U.S. Senate Run, and Another Vanity Candidate.  

Castle appears to ‘float’ in clouds in eastern France:

Drone views show the medieval castle of Haut-Koenigsbourg, as if it were floating in clouds on a foggy day. Built in the 12th century by a Germanic imperial family, the castle was a mountain fortress which was later besieged and pillaged.

Carpetbaggers, Daily Bread, Elections, Entitlement, Eric Hovde, US Senate Race 2024, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.13.24: Describing Eric Hovde Accurately

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Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with evening showers and a high of 54. Sunrise is 6:45, and sunset is 4:33, for 9 hours, 48 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous, with 92.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Lakes Advisory Committee meets at 4:30 PM.

On this day in 1833, the Great Meteor Storm of 1833 takes place:

Although it has been suggested the Leonid meteor shower and storms have been noted in ancient times, it was the meteor storm of November 12–13, 1833 that broke into people’s modern-day awareness. One estimate of the peak rate is over one hundred thousand meteors an hour, while another, done as the storm abated, estimated in excess of 240,000 meteors during the nine hours of the storm, over the entire region of North America east of the Rocky Mountains.

It’s been over a week, in a state where margins of electoral victory survive scrutiny (despite conspiracy theories and speculation), and yet losing candidate Eric Hovde admits he lost, but won’t concede. In this, Hovde is true to form, confirming what critics (as I am) saw about him. Wisconsin Public Radio describes Hovde’s stance accurately:

See Rich Kremer, One week after Senate race was called for Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde admits he lost, but won’t concede, Wisconsin Public Radio, November 13, 2024.

Hovde, accurately described.

Previously at FREE WHITEWATER: Hovde’s Out-of-State Bank Recipient of Bogus Positive Reviews, Hovde Rationalizes His Ignorance and Sloth, California Carpetbagger with a Utah Bank Doesn’t Bother to Read Farm Bill on Which Wisconsin Agriculture Relies, Hovde & Baldwin, Hovde Spreads Lies About Hurricane Response (Of Course He Does), These Aren’t Subtle Men, Eric Hovde’s Banking Deal with a Cartel-Linked Mexican Bank, Hovde’s Evident, Ignorant Racism, Eric Hovde Treats Wisconsin as a Side Hustle,  It’s Not Going So Well for Hovde, Eric Hovde Should Fire His Political Consultants and Hire a Therapist, Tim Michels 2.0 Eric Hovde Announces U.S. Senate Run, and Another Vanity Candidate.  

Cats with Jobs:

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Daily Bread, Elections, Presidential Race 2024, US Senate Race 2024, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.7.24: Wisconsin Turnout High

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Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 56. Sunrise is 6:37, and sunset is 4:39, for 10 hours, 2 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 33.1 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1910,  the first air freight shipment (from Dayton, Ohio, to Columbus, Ohio) is undertaken in a Wright (Brothers) Model B.

The Associated Press reports Wisconsin turnout in presidential race nears 73%:

About 73% of Wisconsin’s voting-age population cast ballots in the 2024 presidential race, with the raw number of voters topping out at the highest in state history, based on unofficial results.

Nearly 3.4 million people in Wisconsin cast ballots in the presidential race won by President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday, and the number is likely to increase slightly as the few remaining outstanding ballots are tabulated. Just over 3.3 million voted for president in the 2020 election.

The turnout percentage of 72.6% in Wisconsin, with a voting-age population of just under 4.7 million people, is just below the 72.9% seen in 2020.

The highest turnout percentage since at least 1948 was 73.2% in 2004, based on records from the Wisconsin Elections Commission.

Fewer people voted in the two other statewide contests in this year’s election. About 30,000 fewer people voted in the race for U.S. Senate between Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Eric Hovde. And more than 193,000 fewer people voted for a constitutional amendment limiting voting to U.S. citizens.

Snacking armadillo:

America, City, Daily Bread, Elections, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.6.24: Eight Years On

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Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 54. Sunrise is 6:36, and sunset is 4:36, for 10 hours, 4 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 23 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1971,  the United States Atomic Energy Commission tests the largest U.S. underground hydrogen bomb, code-named Cannikin, on Amchitka Island in the Aleutians.

Eight years ago, after an election night, I wrote a post entitled Unexpected and Expected. The first paragraph from that post, with a few changes, is fitting yet again:

Last night’s election results are both [generally] unexpected (nationally) and expected (locally), I’d say.  Few thought that Trump would win the presidency, but many of the other results for Wisconsin or Whitewater were easier to predict.

Trump’s victory nationally will be the big topic for years, first about its cause and then about its effects. Because I believe that national shapes local (and that purely hyper-local assessments are short-sighted), Trump’s win (coupled with a Republican Congress [Senate and possibly House] and a conservative Supreme Court) will transform this city as it will much larger places.

None of us can say how this story unfolds, and in any event it matters still more how we in this small city respond to what unfolds. Each day, one begins anew, confronting the challenges of the moment.

For national, state, and local election results see AP Election Results and Journal Sentinel 2024 Wisconsin General Election Results.

NASA’s Perseverance rover captures Martian moon Phobos eclipse the sun:

The Mastcam-Z camera on NASA’s Perseverance rover captured the Martian moon Phobos on Sept. 30, 2024 as it eclipsed the sun.

America, City, Daily Bread, Elections, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.5.24: Election Day

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Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will see afternoon showers with a high of 66. Sunrise is 6:34, and sunset is 4:41, for 10 hours, 7 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 15.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1872, in defiance of the law, suffragist Susan B. Anthony votes for the first time, and is later fined $100.

A wooden ballot box used in the northeastern United States circa 1870. From the National Museum of American History of the Smithsonian Institution in the Vote: The Machinery of Democracy exhibit.

Fireball lights up skies over Ohio, Pennsylvania and Toronto:

The American Meteor Society recieved several reports of fireball in the skies over Ohio, Pennsylvania, Ontario and more on Oct. 21, 2024.

43rd Assembly District, City, Daily Bread, Elections, Legislature

Daily Bread for 11.4.24: In the 43rd District Race, Scott Johnson’s Disqualifying Situation

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Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of 69. Sunrise is 6:33, and sunset is 4:42, for 10 hours, 9 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 8.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1922, British archaeologist Howard Carter and his men find the entrance to Tutankhamun‘s tomb in the Valley of the Kings.

In the 43rd Assembly District, Whitewater resident Brienne Brown is running against Jefferson resident Scott Johnson.

Here is a map of the 43rd Assembly District’s boundaries:

Whitewater, the largest city in the district, is at the northeast corner of the map. Jefferson is in another district.

On April 11th, Scott Johnson published an announcement for his candidacy for the 43rd Assembly seat.

On August 12th, Johnson attended a meeting of the Whitewater Planning Board. At that meeting, Johnson spoke during public comment on a proposed apartment complex on the east side of Whitewater.

Here’s how Johnson began his remarks (with his full remarks available online):

“Good evening. I’m Scott Johnson, I’m not from this local community…”

Johnson does not live in Whitewater, and he does not live anywhere else in the district. It’s lawful to do what Johnson is doing, but it’s irresponsible and selfish.

The proper order for a candidacy goes like this: live in the district, learn about the district, and run only after you have lived here.

This reasonable & responsible sequence applies to Republicans, Democrats, and independents.

All the rest — claims and counterclaims, opposition research and replies — should be secondary and subordinate to a candidate’s residency in this community before he runs for office.

I have always — always — encouraged people to move to Whitewater. Johnson should first sell his out-of-district residence, move here to Whitewater (his best option) or elsewhere in the district (a second-best choice), live here with us, and only then consider a candidacy after living with us.

It’s beautiful here. Whitewater has options for homes and apartments, including among them several senior living facilities.

If Johnson does not believe this district is good enough for a residency-first approach, then this district is too good for Johnson.

No yielding whatever on this fundamental point.

Uncovering a lost mountain metropolis:

An isolated plateau in the highlands of southeastern Uzbekistan in Central Asia, looks like an expanse of rolling hills. But look closer and a shard of pottery or the stony remnant of an ancient wall might hint at an archaeological secret hidden for hundreds of years. Now a team of archaeologists have used drone-mounted LiDAR to virtually peel back the layers of sediment and vegetation. Revealing two ancient cities, much larger than previously imagined, built 2,000 metres above sea level. The finding of these urban centres, called Tashbulak and Tugunbulak, at such high altitudes, may mean that highland areas may have played a more important role in medieval trade than previously thought. Read the paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158…

Daily Bread, Elections, Law, Presidential Race 2024, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.3.24: Monitors for Wisconsin Election

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Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of 60. Sunrise is 6:32, and sunset is 4:44, for 10 hours, 12 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 4.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1943, five hundred aircraft of the U.S. 8th Air Force devastate Wilhelmshaven harbor in Germany.

Here’s Part Two of best to have a plan, best to adopt the plan before the election. Rich Kremer reports US DOJ sending staff to monitor Wisconsin election Tuesday:

The U.S Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division will post election monitors in four Wisconsin locations Nov. 5. The news comes as Wisconsin’s top elections administrator says local clerks have been preparing for any potential election day problems since 2020.

The DOJ announced Friday it will “monitor compliance with federal voting rights laws” in the cities of Milwaukee, Wausau and the Rusk County Towns of Lawrence and Thornapple during Tuesday’s presidential election.

The DOJ sued the Towns of Lawrence and Thornapple in September, accusing local officials of breaking federal law for not making at least one accessible voting machine available to voters with disabilities during elections in April and May. The Town of Thornapple is currently appealing a preliminary injunction requiring it to bring the accessible voting machine back for the upcoming election.

In Wausau, the Wisconsin Department of Justice has taken over an investigation into whether the city’s mayor broke the law by removing a ballot drop box outside city hall Sept. 22.

Wisconsin wouldn’t need federal monitors it didn’t have crackpots and conspiracy theorists interfering or lying about voting in the state. Yet, as we do have crackpots and conspiracy theorists interfering and lying about voting here, it’s best to have monitors.

“We Made Glastonbury Festival’s Biggest Spider”:

Arcadia turns military scrap into iconic Glastonbury stages like the Spider and Dragonfly. Founded by Bertie Cole and Pip Rush, their creations host DJs like Fatboy Slim, thrilling festival audiences worldwide.

Daily Bread, Elections, Law, Presidential Race 2024, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 11.2.24: Wisconsin Approves Recount Guidance

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Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 57. Sunrise is 7:31, and sunset is 5:45, for 10 hours, 14 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 1.1 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The UW-Whitewater Homecoming Parade takes places at 10 AM, beginning at the corner of Prince and Main and ending at the corner of Prairie Street and Starin Road.

On this day in 1960, Penguin Books is found not guilty of obscenity in the trial R v Penguin Books Ltd, the Lady Chatterley’s Lover case.

Best to have a plan, best to adopt the plan before the election. Baylor Spears reports that the Wisconsin Elections Commission approves presidential recount guidance:

Commissioners unanimously approved the communication, which includes information about recount deadlines, information needed to determine recount fees, minor revisions to the recount manual and about how commission staff plans to compile unofficial county results to track recount margins.

A recount must be requested within one business day of the elections commission receiving all the completed county canvasses. The deadline for a recount would be Nov. 30.

“We’ve presented a timeline that shows exactly when the various aspects of a recount would take place, so that again our local election officials and any potential parties to a recount would be able to prepare for that possibility and understand when that recount could potentially occur,” Wolfe said.

The communication will also include information to help clerks make preliminary estimates of the cost of a recount. Wolfe said election officials should plan ahead so that if a candidate is within the recall margin and asks for a recount, officials can produce a cost estimate quickly, which the candidate must pay for. In 2020, former President Donald Trump paid $3 million for recounts in Milwaukee and Dane Counties, which confirmed President Joe Biden’s victory.

“We don’t want to be thinking about it for the first time when there is some type of recount pending,” Wolfe said. “We want to think about it ahead of time and make sure that everybody’s prepared to provide that information in a very expedited way.”

Wisconsin has a decentralized election system with 1,850 Municipal clerks and 72 County clerks — a total of 1,922 local election officials. On election night, municipal clerks will report unofficial results to their county clerks. The Commission plans to go to each county’s website, see the unofficial results that have been posted, and enter the data in a spreadsheet for the federal contest and for any other state-level contest where the margin may be close and post it publicly.

What’s Up: November 2024 Skywatching Tips from NASA:

This month, catch planetary views of Saturn, Jupiter, and Mars, witness a close pass of the Parker Solar Probe by Venus, and get ready for an occultation of the bright star Spica by the Moon. 0:00 Intro 0:20 November planet highlights 1:38 Venus & Parker Solar Probe’s flyby 3:03 Occultation of Spica 4:25 October photo highlights 4:38 November Moon phases.

Daily Bread, Elections, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.28.24: Wisconsin Elections Are Fundamentally Secure

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Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 65. Sunrise is 7:24, and sunset is 5:51, for 10 hours, 27 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent, with 13.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School Board holds a budget hearing at 5:45 PM, goes into closed session shortly after 6:15 PM, and resumes open session at 7 PM. Whitewater’s Urban Forestry Commission meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1886,  US president Grover Cleveland dedicates the Statue of Liberty.

While no one knows the future, we should be able to assess the present accurately. Henry Redman reports Experts, officials confident in voting system despite efforts from Trump, others to sow distrust:

Unlike most other states, Wisconsin’s election system is decentralized. Administration of elections is handled by the 1,850 municipal clerks working across the state. Each clerk is responsible for the election within their community. 

At a virtual event hosted on Friday by Keep Our Republic — an organization that has spent four years trying to rebuild trust in the election system by explaining to skeptics exactly how the system works — former Wisconsin Congressman Reid Ribble said that if a person can’t trust politicians that the system is safe and secure, they should trust their local clerk and their friends and neighbors who volunteer as poll workers. 

“Elections in Wisconsin are fair and safe and the 1,800 county and municipal clerks that are running those elections, and the thousands and thousands of local volunteers and poll workers, are working very hard to do their jobs in a non-partisan manner,” Ribble said. “I’ve often told friends of mine and other citizens … I get it if you don’t trust politicians. One person you should be able to trust is that — usually a senior citizen — poll worker at your local precinct that’s checking your ID and giving you a ballot and making sure that everything is done correctly. You often see these people at your grocery store. They might sit two or three rows in front of you at church and these are your friends. They’re your neighbors. They’re people that are concerned about defending democracy and seeing it unfold in front of their very eyes.”

Once polls close on Election Day and the votes are tallied, unofficial results get sent to county clerks, who report those preliminary numbers. It’s from those initial reports that media organizations use statistical processes to “call” races, declaring who has won. But the actual winners aren’t officially declared until the results are certified at multiple levels. 

This multi-step process gives election experts another layer of assurance that despite continued conspiracy theories, Wisconsin’s system is resistant  to meddling. 

No one can be certain, but we in Wisconsin can be confident.

Cheetahs:



Daily Bread, Elections, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.27.24: Early Voting in Wisconsin Up 40%

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Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 59. Sunrise is 7:23, and sunset is 5:53, for 10 hours, 30 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent, with 20.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1682,  Philadelphia is founded in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Mary Spicuzza reports Early voting in Wisconsin sees 40% increase, election officials say:

Early voting in Wisconsin has increased by nearly 40% over 2020 as of Friday, Wisconsin elections officials said.

Early in-person absentee voting began Tuesday in the state, and as of Friday morning 292,702 people had voted, the Wisconsin Elections Commission said. That’s compared to 209,665 as of the morning of Friday, Oct. 23, 2020.

Nearly 1 million absentee ballots have been requested by Wisconsin voters and more than 715,000 ballots have already been returned to clerks, either by mail or by those voting in-person absentee, elections officials said.

Voters cast a total of some 640,100 absentee ballots in 2008, then 665,340 absentee ballots in 2012; 824,736 absentee ballots in 2016; and about 1.9 million absentee ballots in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Election officials said Friday that 921,832 total absentee ballots had requested so far for the 2024 election.

The type of early voting (prior to 11.5) may shift between absentee balloting and early in-person voting, especially as against a pandemic year. The trend toward voting before Election Day, however, so that Election Day becomes Election Days, is undeniable.

See also from FREE WHITEWATER Nearly 100,00 Ballots Cast on First Day of In-Person Early Voting.

Deft, very deft:

America, Conspiracy Theories, Daily Bread, Elections

Daily Bread for 10.25.24: Conspiracy Theories & Lies Grip Nation

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 61. Sunrise is 7:21, and sunset is 5:56, for 10 hours, 35 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent, with 38.3 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Adlai Stevenson shows the United Nations Security Council reconnaissance photographs of Soviet ballistic missiles in Cuba.

Matt Vasilogambros reports ‘Firehose’ of election conspiracy theories floods final days of the campaign:

In the final days of the presidential election, lies about noncitizens voting, the vulnerability of mail-in ballots and the security of voting machines are spreading widely over social media.

Fanned by former President Donald Trump and notable allies such as tech tycoon Elon Musk, election disinformation is warping voters’ faith in the integrity of the democratic process, polls show, and setting the stage once again for potential public unrest if the Republican nominee fails to win the presidency. At the same time, federal officials are investigating ongoing Russian interference through social media and shadow disinformation campaigns.

The “firehose” of disinformation is working as intended, said Pamela Smith, president and CEO of Verified Voting, a nonpartisan group that advocates for responsible use of technology in elections.

“This issue is designed to sow general distrust,” she said. “Your best trusted source is not your friend’s cousin’s uncle that you saw on Twitter. It’s your local election official. Don’t repeat it. Check it instead.”

Although human affairs are disordered, some happy traditions carry on. Animals enjoy eating pumpkins before Halloween:

Daily Bread, Elections, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.24.24: Nearly 100,00 Ballots Cast on First Day of In-Person Early Voting

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Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 64. Sunrise is 7:19, and sunset is 5:57, for 10 hours, 38 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent, with 48.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

By U.S. Army – White Sands Missile Range/Applied Physics Laboratory [1]https://chaoglobal.wordpress.com/2015/03/01/nasa-15/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=12004314

On this day in 1946, a camera on board the V-2 No. 13 rocket takes the first photograph of earth from outer space.

Henry Redman reports Nearly 100k voters cast ballots on first day of early voting:

The first day of in-person early voting in Wisconsin saw 97,436 people cast ballots for the Nov. 5 election. So many people voted on Tuesday that it caused a slowdown of the state election software system, leading to long lines in some places. 

The number of ballots cast on the opening day of early voting far surpassed other recent elections. In the 2022 midterm election, which had gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races on the ballot, 33,644 people cast ballots on the first day of early voting. In the 2020 presidential election 79,774 people showed up on the first day of early voting. 

Despite Tuesday’s high turnout, the popularity of absentee voting in general still lags behind the 2020 presidential election when the COVID-19 pandemic pushed many voters to vote remotely. 

After more than four years of Republicans and Donald Trump attacking the voting system and making accusations that any voting methods other than  going to the polls on Election Day are vulnerable to fraud, the GOP nonetheless encouraged Republicans this year to vote early. 

Early voting in Wisconsin, Florida, Texas, Illinois and Georgia show lines outside polls:

Daily Bread, Elections, Politics, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.23.24: Wisconsin Senate Outlook

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Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 59. Sunrise is 7:18, and sunset is 5:59, for 10 hours, 40 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous, with 57.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Finance Committee meets at 4 PM.

On this day in 1868, having taken the shogunate’s seat of power at Edo and declared it his new capital as Tokyo, Mutsuhito proclaims the start of the new Meiji era.

Anya Van Wagtendonk, Joe Schulz, and Evan Casey report Fight for control of state government runs through 3 Wisconsin Senate districts (‘Races for the 14th, 30th and 8th state Senate districts have been hotly contested’). They highlight three Senate districts: 14th District (Democrat Democrat Sarah Keyeski and Republican incumbent Joan Ballweg), 30th District (Democrat Jamie Wall and Republican Jim Rafter), and the 8th District (Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin and Republican incumbent Duey Stroebel). These races will not alone be enough to determine Wisconsin Senate control this year, but outcomes will suggest longer-term trends.

The story offers snapshots of each district:

[The 14th] district now encompasses all of Richland and Sauk counties and portions of several others, including Dane County, a Democratic stronghold. It includes the communities of Richland Center, Reedsburg, Baraboo, Spring Green, Sauk City, Lodi, Portage, Columbus and the Wisconsin Dells. Part of the district also dips into the city of Madison.

According to data compiled by Marquette University, Democratic Gov. Tony Evers would have won the district by about 10 points in 2022, and President Joe Biden would have carried it by about 4 points in 2020.

….

Before redistricting, the 30th Senate District stretched north to Marinette, and favored Republicans. It’s been held by Sen. Eric Wimberger, R-Green Bay, since 2021, but this year, he’s running in the adjacent 2nd Senate District, a seat with a strong Republican lean.

In recent elections, the 30th District has leaned Democratic. In 2022, Evers would have carried it by about 7 points. Four years ago Biden would have won it by about 3.

….

Wisconsin’s 8th Senate District includes parts of Milwaukee County and also Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties, also known as the WOW Counties. The area has historically been a Republican stronghold, but it’s been trending Democratic in recent years.

The test this fall is whether redrawn districts like these will lead to partisan changes.

How To Win A Nobel Prize: A three minute guide:

Daily Bread, Elections, Harris-Walz, Never Trump, Politics, Presidential Race 2024, Republicans, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 10.4.24: Harris, Cheney, and Wisconsin Republicans

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Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 70. Sunrise is 6:56, and sunset is 6:29, for 11 hours, 34 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent, with 2.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1957, Sputnik 1 becomes the first artificial satellite to orbit the Earth.

There’s no one who now knows, truly, what will be the outcome of the 2024 presidential race, in Wisconsin or anywhere else. It’s enough to take a position, first to hold that position against opposition, and thereafter to advance from it against opposition. One watches and acts without foreknowledge of the final result. A letter yesterday is like that, as Erik Gunn reports Wisconsin GOP group launches pro-Harris campaign with open letter:


Two dozen Wisconsin Republicans, including former lawmakers, other former elected officials and a GOP sitting district attorney, have signed an open letter declaring their support for Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris in her campaign for president and condemning the Republican nominee former President Donald Trump.

The Harris campaign released the letter early Thursday, describing it as the product of months of outreach by the campaign and by the Democratic Party of Wisconsin to Republicans.

“We, the undersigned, are Republicans from across Wisconsin who bring the same message: Donald Trump does not align with Wisconsin values,” the letter says. “To ensure our democracy and our economy remain strong for another four years, we must elect Kamala Harris and Tim Walz to the White House.”

The letter was released as part of the launch of a formal Wisconsin Republicans for Harris-Walz organization, with just over a month to go before the Nov. 5 election.

“Wisconsin Republicans for Harris-Walz will play a pivotal role in facilitating Republican-to-Republican voter contact,” said the Harris-Walz campaign announcement Thursday. Through phone banking and networking with “Republican organizations, businesses, and community groups,” the GOP-oriented group will focus “in part on the more than 120,000 Wisconsinites who voted against Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary earlier this year,” the campaign announcement said.

Trump’s Wisconsin primary opponent, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, finished with more than 16% of the vote in Ozaukee, 12% in Washington and 14% in Waukesha counties.

Liz Cheney joins Harris rally at historic birthplace of the GOP in swing state Wisconsin: