Daily Bread for 4.26.18

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of sixty-six. Sunrise is 5:54 AM and sunset 7:50 PM, for 13h 55m 47s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 86.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Community Involvement and Cable TV Commission meets at 5 PM, and the Community Development Authority at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1777, Sybil Ludington proves herself a heroine of the Revolution: “On the night of April 26, 1777, at the age of 16, she rode to alert militia forces in villages of Putnam County, New York and Danbury, Connecticut, to the approach of the British regular forces. The ride was similar to those performed by William Dawes and Paul Revere (Massachusetts, April 1775), and Jack Jouett (Virginia, 1781). Ludington rode more than twice the distance of Revere and was much younger than the men.”

Recommended for reading in full —

➤ Alan Auerbach, William G. Gale, and Aaron Krupkin reviews The federal budget outlook: Even crazier after all these years:

On balance, the medium-term (10-year) outlook has worsened over the past year.  The 2017 tax cut, the 2018 spending deals, and higher projected interest rates raise projected deficits and debt, while expectations of a stronger economy (in large part attributable to the fiscal stimulus from policy changes) and lower health care spending work in the opposite direction. The net effect is that CBO now projects a debt-GDP ratio of 94.5 percent in 2027 under current law, compared to a similar projection of 91.2 percent last June.^[1] Nevertheless, the fiscal situation, already very problematic, has become more so. In “The federal budget outlook: Even crazier after all these years” (PDF), Alan Auerbach, William Gale, and Aaron Krupkin examines the budget outlook, given new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections that incorporate the 2017 tax act and the 2018 spending deals.^[2]

First, in an odd twist, the strong projected economy makes the projections of large deficits more worrisome. CBO projects that cumulative actual and potential GDP will be equal, on average, over the 2018-2028 period. The strong economic performance is due in significant part to the implementation of the tax legislation. But it also means that the higher projected deficits and debt are essentially full-employment deficits. If (when?) the economy falls into recession, the medium-term fiscal outlook is likely to look significantly worse.

Second, under a “current policy” scenario, the problem is considerably worse, as CBO acknowledges. Whereas current-law projections examine the impact of Congress essentially making no further changes over the projection period, “current policy” projections estimate the impact of what might be termed “business-as-usual” assumptions regarding tax and spending choices—in particular, that policy makers routinely extend temporary provisions.^[3] Under current law, CBO projects a debt-GDP ratio of 96.2 percent by 2028. Under current policy, the authors project a debt-GDP ratio of 106.5 percent in that year, which would be the highest ratio in U.S. history.

➤ Stephen Collinson reports After the hugs and kisses, Macron rips Trumpism:

On Wednesday, before a joint session of of Congress, the charismatic French leader turned around and repudiated the US President’s political philosophy and worldview.

The startling contrast between Macron palling around with Trump on a state visit and his velvet hammer speech — effectively defending the world order from “America First” nationalism — encapsulated his intricate US strategy.

Macron wants to bind the Trump administration into the existing Western international system, to convince it to dive back into multilateral efforts to shut down Iran’s nuclear program, to battle climate change and to safeguard globalization and free trade.

➤ Erin Kelly reports Cambridge Analytica whistleblower: Steve Bannon used data to discourage Democratic turnout:

Democrats from the House Judiciary Committee and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee asked Wylie in a closed-door session on Tuesday whether Bannon had specifically talked about voter disenfranchisement or disengagement.

“Yes,” Wylie responded, according to the transcript released by the Democrats. “If by that term you mean discouraging particular types of voters who are more prone to voting for Democratic or liberal candidates, if that’s what you mean by that term, then yes.”

…

Wylie testified that Bannon directed Cambridge Analytica in 2014 to test images and concepts for an American audience relating to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian expansion in Eastern Europe. He said Putin was the only foreign leader used in the testing.

➤ Honest to goodness, Trump is a vulgar new man, as Daniel Dale recounts:

➤ Just in case, here’s How To Survive An Alligator Attack: