Good morning.
Constitution Day in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-nine. Sunrise is 6:37 AM and sunset 7:00 PM, for 12h 23m 15s of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous with 89.8% of its visible disk illuminated.Today is the one thousand forty-third day.
The Whitewater School Board’s Policy Review Committee meets at 8:00 AM. Whitewater’s Alcohol Licensing Committee meets at 6:15 PM, and the Whitewater Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.
On this day in 1787, the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia successfully ends.
Recommended for reading in full:
Geoffrey Skelley caution Don’t Use General Election Polls To Try To Predict The Primaries:
First up, do early head-to-head polls like the ones Biden has cited tell us anything about how well a candidate will do in the primary? To test this idea, we collected polls conducted in the last half of the calendar year before the primary (July to December) and built two models to predict how each candidate would ultimately do in the nomination contest: One model used polls of the primary race and candidates’ name recognition, and the other model used those two factors plus incorporated how well the candidates did in head-to-head polls of the general election. We then compared the two models to see if adding in the general election polls improved our modeling. So, to spoil the ending a bit, do head-to-head polls help us predict who will win the nomination when we already know where candidates stand in the primary polls? The short answer is: No, they don’t seem to help much at all.
Ari Berman reports Civil Rights Groups Challenge Trump’s “Racially Discriminatory Scheme” to Skew Redistricting:
On Friday, civil rights groups filed the first lawsuit challenging the executive order, claiming it was “motivated by a racially discriminatory scheme to reduce Latino political representation and increase the overrepresentation of non-Latino Whites, thereby advantaging White voters at Latino voters’ expense.”
For decades, state legislative and Congressional districts have been drawn based on total population. If districts were instead based only on citizens or eligible voters, that could lead to a major shift in power from Democratic to Republican areas, as many Democrats represent areas with concentrations of non-citizens and non-voters, including children. If those people are not counted in legislative apportionment, that would benefit Republicans, who tend to represent whiter, more homogenous areas with fewer non-citizens and young people.
Over the past decade, Republicans have sought to make such a change. The late Republican gerrymandering expert Thomas Hofeller, who also led the behind-the-scenes efforts to add the citizenship question, wrote in a 2015 study that drawing districts based on eligible voters instead of the total population would “would clearly be a disadvantage to the Democrats” and “advantageous to Republicans and Non-Hispanic Whites.”
Handcuffed and Humiliated: North Carolina homeowner detained in own home after false alarm: