Before the polls close, a few questions of note about the spring election for the City of Whitewater, Walworth County, and Wisconsin.
City of Whitewater
What’s Whitewater’s turnout today?
Assuming that JoAnnne Kloppenburg carries Whitewater, by what margin will she do so? (If she can’t carry places like the City of Whitewater, she’s likely in trouble regardless of turnout in Madison and Milwaukee.)
How does Kloppenburg run in the city compared with the vote for at-large councilmember Marilyn Kienbaum? No one — that’s no one on the planet — thinks they’re ideologically similar. If Kienbaum receives more votes than Prosser’s total, then she will have received a good number of pro-Kloppenburg votes. Prosser and Kienbaum would be more likely to have similar totals, but I doubt that will happen. I’d guess Kienbaum will get the support of both Prosser and Kloppenburg voters, indicating that ideology only goes so far locally.
Walworth County
How strong is Prosser in Walworth County? If he runs poorly in a GOP-dominated county, what does it say about Republican enthusiasm?
Wisconsin
In Madison, if former mayor Paul Soglin wins, it will be on the strength of a marked left-of-center turnout, among voters who find even Mayor Dave [Cieslewicz] not progressive enough. Either candidate is left-of-center, but how big (and frustrated) will the Madison electorate be? Until Gov. Walker’s restrictions on collective bargaining, I would have been certain that Mayor Dave would be re-elected. I’m not certain now, even though both mayoral candidates oppose the governor’s plan.
In Milwaukee County, Abele will likely trounce Jeff Stone. Prosser will do poorly there, too.
Where does that leave Prosser?
It leaves him needing strong turnouts in GOP counties like Walworth, and even stronger turnouts in GOP counties up north. If he gets that support, it won’t be from people who’ve previously demonstrated it, as demonstrations on the right have been small, and pro-Prosser gatherings tiny. To believe Prosser will prevail today, one would have to believe that there truly is a silent majority in favor of Prosser, and of Governor Walker.
Possible, but improbable. It’s more likely that recent political polls are accurate, and Walker has lost support since the November election.
I’d guess that Kloppenburg will win comfortably.
We’ll see.