The Libertarian Party chose Bob Barr, a former GOP congressman turned LP member, as its standard-bearer to present a more moderate libertarian image to America. This sparked concern among left-leaning libertarians, but party leaders were sure it was the correct, and right, direction.
Surely Barr would be able to attract a wider level of support than previous LP candidates, especially among disaffected Republicans who would see that McCain was far from libertarian in outlook and policies. In June or July, this sort of thinking made some sense; Barr might have doubled or tripled the LP’s average level of electoral support.
It makes less sense now: Sarah Palin’s nomination may mean that there will be fewer disaffected Republicans on whom Barr can count. First, the few social conservatives who wanted to vote a protest against McCain will not vote against McCain-Palin ticket. Second, independent-minded voters in the Western states will find Palin more interesting than Barr ever could be.
I’d guess that Palin probably caps the likely November libertarian vote for Barr not far from where the LP vote was in 2004, and thus far below expectations only a few months ago. McCain-Palin may not win this election, but they’ll likely have inflicted significant collateral damage on Bob Barr and the LP.