One way to predict the outcome of the presidential race is through a market.
The University of Iowa operates an electronic futures market where investors can purchase futures in a presidential candidate. The market fluctuates as the value of those contracts rise or fall with a candidate’s prospects.
Here’s a description of the market:
“The Iowa Electronic Markets are small-scale, real-money futures markets where contract payoffs depend on economic and political events such as elections.”
I follow the markets regularly – right now they show Obama with a slight edge in vote share, but a reasonably larger value in the winner take all market.
Here’s the link to the markets:
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/
quotes/Pres08_quotes.html