I posted previously about the Iowa Electronic Political Markets, where traders can purchase political futures contracts. I have visited the Iowa Markets over the last few elections.
Recently, I’ve followed the political market at Intrade. Here’s a graph of 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual), for Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election —
I’ve picked Obama because he’s currently commanding a higher price than McCain. I’ll stick with Obama, even if his price falls. The chart shows closing prices over the election campaign.
There’s no magic in this, and traders might foolishly react to rumors, stubborn conventional wisdom, etc. The Iowa Markets claim a strong predictive record in presidential races; Intrade seems more popular with traders this election.
Chart courtesy of Intrade.com.