Public Policy Polling, a solid pollster, has a poll out today that puts Eric Hovde (28%) in the lead for the GOP Senate race, with Mark Neumann and Tommy Thompson (25%) tied closed behind.
There are two weeks to go, and these are close findings, with more campaigning and money yet to be spent.
Still, a few questions —
Could Tommy Thompson really lose this race?
Other GOP incumbents or insiders have lost seats in primaries across America, but Tommy, too? There would be another, brightly-lettered sign of profound change in the WISGOP. Despite PPP’s findings, I’d still guess that Thompson will win a close primary. Close would have been unthinkable a few years ago.
If you’re a Republican, do you really want to run Hovde against Baldwin?
I’m not a Republican, but I’d run any of the other three against Baldwin before I’d run Hovde. His long stay in Washington, his lack of prior electoral experience, and a hedge-fund background that Baldwin will target day after day will make Republicans wish for any of the other three candidates in late October.
If you’re a down-ballot Wisconsin Republican, would you rather have Romney and Thompson/Neumann/Fitzgerald or Romney and Hovde on the ballot?
Fitzgerald has lagged behind his GOP rivals, but wouldn’t he be better, for the GOP, than Romney and Hovde?
At the beginning of this year, I predicted a Romney win in Wisconsin and America, but the Wisconsin part of that predication looks likely to be wrong. Yet, there are degrees of winning and losing, and if you’re a Republican, wouldn’t you think Romney would do better in Wisconsin with Thompson or Neumann or Fitzgerald? I’m not sure why Hovde’s presence wouldn’t only intensify a WisDems attack on the GOP as a rich person’s party.
(By contrast, Paul Ryan as Romney’s vice-presidential nominee would be sure to boost GOP spirits down the ballot, as he’s particularly popular among Wisconsin Republicans. The US Senate nominee would mean far less with a Wisconsin on the ticket with Romney.)
We’ll know the slate in less than two weeks.
yeah, thompson will lose probably
he looks old and tired and republicans need energy to win
Tommy’s the safe bet for sure. He won’t get creamed on election day but he isn’t exciting to people anymore. Hovde’s got the advantage of energy. He’s got charisma that the others don’t. He looks better to Republicans because he seems excited and interested in the job. People may think Baldwin’s too liberal but in November voters will want a guy who looks like he won’t sleep at his desk.
Tommy will win a close race despite Hovde’s endless ads
I’m surprised that Thompson is locked in a tight primary with a novice and candidate (Neumann) that many dislike for having opposed Gov. Walker in 2010. If he gets through the primary, I’d say he’s the GOP’s best bet for November, with Baldwin a favorite (by respectively varying degrees) against any of the other GOP candidates.