Reason.tv offers a nine-minute interview with historian Joel Kotkin on Why America Will Still Lead the World in 2050.
I have no doubt that America can and will remain the envy of the world in the middle of this century. Our greatness lies in the freedom of our people, and the openness and fairness of our institutions. A continental republic committed to individual liberty, free markets, limited government, and peaceful relations with other countries is assured of good prospects.
I’d offer only two cautions about a broad demographic analysis. The first is that so very many public officials have drifted America’s fundamental ideals, as I have listed them, and the effort to preserve our freedom and prosperity is not yet won. Some of the hardest battles are at the sate and local level, where an entire generation of middling bureaucrats has come to see public finance as a playground for proud schemes and vanity projects.
Most are incapable of change; America will have to wait for their retirement, and the criticism that the next generation will inevitably heap on their many failures.
The second is that although demographic trends may doom a nation, I’m not convinced that they assure success. I agree with Kotkin that America’s demographic future looks bright, especially compared with international competitors. There’s plenty of room for more Americans, and a population of four hundred million (up over ninety million from today), will be advantageous for America in so many ways.
I’d caution, however, that if demographics were destiny, Imperial Germany would have avoided the First World War, continued an upward trend of economic and population growth, and spared Europe catastrophe (twice). That’s not what happened, despite favorable economic and population trends — Germany ignored a positive path to peaceful greatness, and committed herself to the very opposite.
Of course, Kotkin knows this — he writes with the assumption, one we all hope to be true, that America will not squander her demographic good fortune.
I simply think that it will, overall, take lots of work to reap the full benefits of an encouraging demographic trend.
Here’s the video: