Here is my amateur version of the late William Safire’s long-standing tradition of offering annual predictions.
Let’s see how I did on predictions for 2012. The list for last year appears below, with my guesses in blue, and the correct answer in red. The guesses weren’t about what I (necessarily) wanted to happen, but what I thought would happen.
The list for 2012:
1. In 2012, UW-Whitewater will win the following number of national sports championships:
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two
Adams’s guess: C. Two. Same number of wins as in 2011.
Correct answer: D. There were four national championship teams: men’s basketball, women’s gymnastics, and men’s & women’s wheelchair basketball.
2. The Whitewater citywide vote for president will be
A. A clear win for the GOP nominee
B. A close win for the GOP nominee
C. A clear win for Pres. Obama
D. A close win for Pres. Obama
Adams’s guess: C. A clear win for Pres. Obama.
Correct answer: C. As in past years, the Democratic presidential nominee will swept the city.
3. In the Wisconsin presidential vote, the results will show
A. A clear win for the GOP nominee
B. A close win for the GOP nominee
C. A clear win for Pres. Obama
D. A close win for Pres. Obama
Adams’s guess: B. A close win for the GOP nominee.
Correct answer: C. Wisconsin wasn’t close. The only battleground state Gov. Romney won was North Carolina.
4. The national vote for president will be
A. A clear win for the GOP nominee
B. A close win for the GOP nominee
C. A clear win for Pres. Obama
D. A close win for Pres. Obama
Adams’s guess: B. A close win for the GOP nominee.
Correct answer: C. I assumed Romney would be the GOP nominee, but he didn’t perform well. There was no late-into-the-night uncertainty of the outcome as the results unfolded.
5. In Wisconsin’s 43rd Assembly district, the winner will be
A. Incumbent Evan Wynn easily
B. Incumbent Evan Wynn in a close race
C. The Democrat easily
D. The Democrat in a close race
Adams’s guess: D. The Democrat in a close race.
Correct answer: C. Rep. Jorgensen won easily; I underestimated the composition of the new district. It’s a ‘leans Democratic’ seat now. Wynn’s voting record was out-of-step for the district, his re-election campaign attacks were simply embarrassing, and Jorgensen is likeable and hardworking. A Republican could still take the district someday, but not on a version of Wynn’s platform.
6. In a recall election,
A. Gov. Walker will be recalled by a large margin
B. Gov. Walker will be recalled by a small margin
C. Gov. Walker will not be recalled
D. There will be no gubernatorial recall
Adams’s guess: B. Gov. Walker will be recalled by a small margin
Correct answer: C. Gov. Walker won easily, by a better margin over Barrett in ’12 than in ’10.
7. Whitewater’s North Street Bridge will be
A. finished in the first half of 2012
B. finished in the second half of 2012
C. never be finished
D. never be finished but become Whitewater’s leading tourist attraction (‘The Amazing and Exceptional Virtual Bridge’), complete with a large construction crane in the middle of the street
Adams’s guess: A. finished in the first half of 2012, but there’s an outside chance that it will D. never be finished but become Whitewater’s leading tourist attraction (‘The Amazing and Exceptional Virtual Bridge’), complete with a large construction crane in the middle of the street.
Correct answer: A.
8. In the Wisconsin State Senate recalls,
A. the Democrats will retake the Senate
B. the GOP will retain the Senate
C. the Democrats will retake the Senate but lose the majority again in November
D. there will be no Senate recalls
Adams’s guess: C. the Democrats will retake the Senate but lose the majority again in November. Redistricting matters.
Correct answer: C.
9. After spring elections, Whitewater’s Common Council will be
A. more conservative
B. more liberal
C. about the same
D. there’s no left or right in Whitewater’s local politics
Adams’s guess: C. about the same, and in any event, D. There’s really no left or right in Whitewater’s local politics
Correct answer: C. (But once can expect a left-right split to emerge slowly, where both left and right look different from yesterday’s politicians.)
10. In the US Senate race from Wisconsin, the winner will be
A. Tammy Baldwin
B. Tommy Thompson
C. Mark Neumann
D. Jeff Fitzgerald
Adams’s guess:
B. Tommy Thompson. Thompson defeats Neumann and Fitzgerald, and then wins against Baldwin.
Correct answer: A. As with the Wisconsin presidential results, the vote wasn’t close. Tommy ran a phone-it-in campaign; it wasn’t nearly adequate to the task.
This wasn’t a strong year for my predictive prowess, with only 4 of 10 right. That’s a cause of chagrin, as I’m the one who writes the questions….
I’ll try to do better next year. Since next year is only a day away, I’ve some crystal-ball gazing to do, pronto.