Here is my early January 2009 post with predictions for the year. How did I do?
Results below the post….
Here’s my local, amateur version, in honor of former columnist [the late] William Safire’s long-standing tradition, of offering annual predictions. The list for 2009:
1. In 2009, the University will win the following number of national sports championships:
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two
2. The land adjacent to Whitewater’s award-winning roundabout will be
A. Fully developed
B. Partially developed
C. Proposed, but undeveloped, along an entirely new plan
D. As it is now, with no additional development proposed or undertaken
3. Of the following print publications,how many will fold in 2009? (Daily Union, Janesville Gazette, Good Morning Advertiser, Whitewater Register, City of Whitewater Newsletter as Utility Bill Insert, Journal of the American Medical Association.)
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two
4. This year, how many current Common Council members will be defeated in their bids for office?
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. Three
5. Following last year’s prediction — between now and year’s end, the unemployment rate in Whitewater will
A. Drop
B. Increase slightly
C. Increase significantly — up 25% or more as a percentage increase year-over-year
D. No change
6. Of these choices, it is most likely that the Whitewater City Manager will
A. Reduce unemployment in the city
B. Reduce poverty in the city
C. Increase opportunities for small businesses
D. Write the introduction to the next edition of Emily Post’s Etiquette
7. During the current recession, nearby Fort Atkinson and Delavan will fare, compared against Whitewater in economic health,
A. Worse than Whitewater
B. The same as Whitewater
C. Better than Whitewater
D. Far better than Whitewater
8. The City of Whitewater’s Administration will form a task force to study
A. Super-shrewd techniques in public relations
B. Wearing of plaid in the off-season
C. Use of false humility to win friends and influence people
D. The easier formation of task forces
9. Following last year’s prediction, market-penetration rate of the Whitewater Register will
A. Remain unchanged
B. Decline slightly
C. Decline significantly
D. Increase
10. The new District Administrator, after Dr. Steinhaus, for the Whitewater Unified School District will be
A. A current WUSD principal
B. Chief Jim Coan — no other teaches so well
C. An outside candidate
D. Dr. Steinhaus, again — will she really offer less in retirement than she does now? Stick with the known!
Adams’s guesses for 2009:
1. In 2009, the University will win the following number of national sports championships:
C. Two
2. The land adjacent to Whitewater’s award-winning roundabout will be
C. Proposed, but undeveloped, along an entirely new plan
3. Of the following print publications,how many will fold in 2009? (Daily Union, Janesville Gazette, Good Morning Advertiser, Whitewater Register, City of Whitewater Newsletter as Utility Bill Insert, Journal of the American Medical Association.)
B. One
4. This year, how many current Common Council members will be defeated in their bids for office?
C. Two
5. Following last year’s prediction — between now and year’s end, the unemployment rate in Whitewater will
B. Increase slightly
6. Of these choices, it is most likely that the Whitewater City Manager will
D. Write the introduction to the next edition of Emily Post’s Etiquette
7. During the current recession, nearby Fort Atkinson and Delavan will fare, compared against Whitewater in economic health,
C. Better than Whitewater
8. The City of Whitewater’s Administration will form a task force to study
D. The easier formation of task forces
9. Following last year’s prediction, market-penetration rate of the Whitewater Register will
C. Decline significantly
10. The new District Administrator, after Dr. Steinhaus, for the Whitewater Unified School District will be
C. An outside candidate
We’ll see how we did at predicting at year’s end.
Here’s how I’d say I did —
1. Correct — football and wheelchair basketball.
2. Wrong — I was wrongly optimistic — there wasn’t any meaningful plan — it’s just vacant land, except for a realtor’s sign.
3. Wrong — Each publication is still around.
4. Wrong — Only one current Council member was defeated, and that’s because it was a race between two current members. Incumbency won yet again.
5. Wrong — On an annual basis, unemployment is up significantly almost everywhere in Wisconsin, by large percentages over last year. See, November Local Unemployment Rates Announced, WI DWD. Again, I was overly optimistic.
6. Correct. I didn’t predict what would happen, merely what was most likely. I am proved correct: it was and is more likely that City Manager Kevin Brunner would write the introduction to the next edition of Emily Post’s Etiquette than reduce unemployment, reduce poverty, or increase opportunities for small businesses. I think he’s more likely to become an astronaut than do any of those positive things. When conditions improve, it will have been in spite of his polices.
7. Correct. I think this is true – that where poverty is greater (with us) conditions will have been worse than where it has been less (with neighboring towns).
8. Wrong, but only so far. The city’s fickle and inconstant attentions have drifted to a Tech Park, but that interest will fade, and there’ll be another object of ardent attention soon enough. Then, perhaps, the need to manage task forces will present itself again.
9. Correct, I think. I would guess that the Register has declined year over, yet again. Unfortunately, Wisconsin is tardy in updating official circulation numbers through a state website. When someone at the state finally decides to update a project that was once updated monthly, then one will have a better understanding. If there’s any group that could stand an increase in unemployment, it’s the State of Wisconsin’s workforce.
10. Correct. The WUSD chose an outside candidate.
So, fifty-fifty for this year, I’d say. Not great forecasting, but great fun in the writing, surely.
Next: Predictions for 2010.