Here is my early January 2010 post with predictions for the year. How did I do?
Results below the post….
Here’s my local, amateur version of (the now late) William Safire’s tradition of offering annual predictions, when he was at the New York Times. The list for 2010:
1. In 2010, the University will win the following number of national sports championships:
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two
2. A new Innovation Center will, during the year, produce
A. Cold Fusion
B. the Flux Capacitor
C. More press and publicity than actual benefit
D. More actual benefit than press and publicity
3. Of the following print publications, how many will fold in 2010? (Daily Union, Janesville Gazette, Good Morning Advertiser, Whitewater Register, City of Whitewater Newsletter as Utility Bill Insert, Newsweek.)
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two
4. This year, how many incumbent Common Council members will be defeated in their bids for office?
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. Three
5. During the year, how often will Whitewater politicians and bureaucrats use the phrases “in my years of municipal experience,” “I don’t know who would do such a thing,” “he said it was in the Constitution already,” or “move on to other business?”
A. Never
B. Occasionally
C. Often
D. Too often
6. During the year, how many high-placed city officials will leave office?
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. Not enough
7. By year’s end, most residents will likely conclude that enforcement of city codes and ordinances is
A. Fair and impartial as always
B. Sometimes unfair and biased as currently
C. Much improved
D. Much worse
8. Retail vacancies across the city will at year’s end will be
A. Far fewer than now
B. Slightly fewer than now
C. About the same as now
D. Greater than now
9. The 2011 Whitewater city budget, adopted in the late fall, will
A. Lead to a slight net tax decrease for city residents
B. Lead to a slight net tax increase for city residents
C. Lead to a significant net tax decrease for city residents
D. Lead to a significant net tax increase for city residents
10. Tax Incremental District 4 will be a candidate for
A. Not much of anything
B. Distressed status, should the state pass relevant legislation in 2010
C. A newly-created General Motors Award for sound financial management
D. Designation as a prairie habitat
Adams’s guesses for 2010:
1. In 2010, the University will win the following number of national sports championships:
B. One
2. A new Innovation Center will, during the year, produce
C. More press and publicity than actual benefit
3. Of the following print publications, how many will fold in 2010? (Daily Union, Janesville Gazette, Good Morning Advertiser, Whitewater Register, City of Whitewater Newsletter as Utility Bill Insert, Newsweek.)
C. Two (Note to the Phantom Stranger: I think this will be the year.)
4. This year, how many incumbent Common Council members will be defeated in their bids for office?
A. None
5. During the year, how often will Whitewater politicians and bureaucrats use the phrases “in my years of municipal experience,” “I don’t know who would do such a thing,” “he said it was in the Constitution already,” or “move on to other business?”
D. Too often
6. During the year, how many high-placed city officials will leave office?
C. Two (Although ‘not enough’ is right choice, too, a priori.)
7. By year’s end, most residents will likely conclude that enforcement of city codes and ordinances is
B. Sometimes unfair and biased as currently (that is, no improvement at all)
8. Retail vacancies across the city will at year’s end will be
D. Greater than now
9. The 2011 Whitewater city budget, adopted in the late fall, will
D. Lead to a significant net tax increase for city residents
10. Tax Incremental District 4 will be a candidate for
B. Distressed status, should the state pass relevant legislation in 2010
We’ll see how I did at predicting at year’s end.
Here’s how I think that I did —
1. Correct — There was a national football championship for the university.
2. Correct— For the Innovation Center, there was more publicity than accomplishment (and some of that publicity showed how lacking in accomplishment this project truly is).
3. Wrong — Only one of those publications went under, not two. Newsweek did go under as a standalone publication, and is now in a merger with The Daily Beast website. The rest are still around.
4. Correct— No Common Council incumbents were defeated.
5. Correct— How often will Whitewater politicians and bureaucrats use certain phrases? Too often! City Manager Brunner touts his years of municipal experience, while all around one sees examples of his municipal incompetence. Every time he argues on behalf of his tenure, in the face of his many missteps, one wonders: What were you learning, lo those many years?
6. Wrong. Two officials didn’t leave in 2010.
7. Correct. I think this is true – there’s little confidence in the fair enforcement of city regulations. One of the reasons I think so is that to try to prove support for city policies, Whitewater’s resorted to using skewed and dodgy survey samples. If the city were confident of support, why not use a representative sample? I think it’s because a representative sample would yield unfavorable results.
8. Correct. I would guess that retail vacancies are up, in every part of the city, at least at prominent and visible locations. The west side may yet see more vacancies.
9. Correct, I think. This is, however, a matter of interpretation. I think that a 2.5% increase during the deepest Recession since the Great Depression is significant.
10. Correct. The legislation for a Distressed TID designation is now law, and TID 4 is an over-committed mess.
So, a good year for predictions, with an 80% success rate. Woo! (That’s up from last year, when I was only fifty-fifty. Still, I’m the one who wrote the questions in the first place!)
Tomorrow: Predictions for 2011.