Charles Franklin’s latest Marquette Law School Poll is out today, with polling on the governor’s race, attorney general’s race, and on several key political issues.
Although the Wisconsin gubernatorial election is a huge topic within the state, there’s not much polling on it beyond the Marquette Poll.
The poll has its critics, too. Democrat Ed Garvey has for years said it’s biased. More recently, there’s been surprise that prior results in 2014 surveys have gone the way they have (with Walker ahead among registered voters, but Burke ahead among likely voters – a counter-intuitive result for some analysts).
Still, this poll is the biggest game in town, so to speak.
(One of my predictions for 2014, made in January, is that Gov. Walker will win statewide but that, locally, Mary Burke will carry the City of Whitewater solidly.)
The 9.17.14 poll has Walker 49, Burke 46 among likelies, tied at 46 among registered voters, and within the statistical margin of error. In the end, that’s really, as Franklin writes, a ‘statistical dead heat.’
Franklin sees a greater percentage of Republicans as likely voters than Democrats (80% over 73%), and in this latest poll sees a greater enthusiasm among GOP voters (67% to 60% for Democrats).
It’s early, and Franklin’s polling (with what little public polling there is from others) will begin to emphasize likely voters as the election gets closer.
Statewide results like those in today’s poll, if distributed as one would expect across the state, would give Burke Whitewater and Walker the towns around the city. There’s nothing surprising about today’s survey.
On our school referendum, I still think that the most important influence will be the governor’s race, by such a measure that local issues will get far less attention. Local issues elsewhere will be mostly the same: it’s the gubernatorial race that will drive voting.
There are two exceptions to the gubernatorial race as a driver of local voting in Whitewater: if someone says something utterly nutty, or if no one makes any detailed case for the referendum.
First, it’s highly improbable that there will be any truly nutty policy statements. On the contrary, this is likely to be an undramatic discussion.
Second, there will have to be some policy discussion: it would be oddly lazy to coast only on an expected blue wave in the city. Even someone who thinks that the gubernatorial race will be paramount (as I do) wouldn’t be inclined to think that for proponents providing no discussion would be a sensible plan.
The example in this, recently, is the failed Blackhawk Technical College referendum. That measure had the strong support of labor, conservative business-development advocates, the Gazette‘s conservative editorial board, and politicians on both sides of the aisle. Conservative and liberal voters turned it aside, however, as there was little explanation of why the request was important.
In my own case, I’m genuinely interested in the details behind the referendum, and more generally the curriculum in our schools.
Those looking at this only as a matter of winning and losing will not find their man in me – serious topics deserve serious discussion. The vote has significance for our high school (and other places), but it’s more than a high school election, so to speak.
A dumbed-down political discussion is the last thing this town needs; Whitewater should have better than the recent use of a few numbers or slogans carelessly thrown about.
For today, though, we’ve more polling suggesting that the gubernatorial election before us is likely to be close, and so will be the key political topic for weeks to come.