There’s a story at the GazetteXtra.com about nearby Rock County’s unemployment rate, now at a staggering 10.8%. That’s up from 10.4%.
Rock County’s unemployment rate, a year ago, was 13.2%.
Here’s what Wisconsin’s chief economist had to say about the current, 10.8% rate:
“That’s to me … pretty good news,” said Dennis Winters, chief labor economist for the state. “Things are a bit on the mend. Would we like to see it go faster than it is? Sure. We think this recovery will continue at a slow but steady (pace).”
What a foolish thing to say. Unemployment in Rock County increased from last month, and remains at destructively high levels. Winters might think that Rock County’s condition is an example of “on the mend,” but that’s hardly what a sensible person would think.
If a man has a fever of 106, it drops to 102, and then increases again to 102.4, would you say he’s “on the mend.” Of course not — he’s still sick, and his condition just got a bit worse. He might get better, but with measurements like these, would you be sure when and how?
The national forecasts for unemployment are so terrible on cannot imagine that they’re numbers that describe the American economy. A headline from CNN describes succinctly our troubled condition: White House: Unemployment at 9% until 2012.
Two quick, significant additional points.
First, these unemployment forecasts from the White House, itself, assume growth of 4% in 2011. Even with growth at that level, the White House still expects unemployment to remain over 9% through 2012. Unemployment that high, for years yet to come, will ruin many people’s lives. Many more won;’t even show up in these figures, as they’ll be too discouraged even to seek work.
Second, let no one doubt the power of tax cuts to spur growth — even the White House believes it. Consider how the White House explains its 2011 estimate for 4% growth when the Congressional Budget Office see only 2.4% growth:
Romer explained why the White House’s GDP forecast for 2011 is higher than that of the Congressional Budget Office, which forecast 2.4% versus the administration’s 4%. The reason: The CBO forecast assumes all the Bush tax cuts will expire by Jan. 1, whereas the White House has proposed they be extended for the majority of Americans.
There you are: An acknowledgment from this federal administration that tax cuts, or the extension of tax cuts, can boost economic growth.
Of course they can, and will. Libertarians have been saying as much since there have been libertarians. We’ve said it because it’s true that keeping money in the hands of those who earned it is the best place that money could be, for people to spend and invest using their own, sound judgment. Individuals and society benefit from lower taxes and greater private opportunity.
And that way, by the way, is how an economy will be, truly, on the mend.