The latest Marquette Law School Poll is out today, with just over a month before the gubernatorial election. The last poll was 9.17.14.
The 10.1.14 poll has Walker 50, Burke 45 with likely voters, and 46-45 to Walker’s favor among registered voters.
The race is now just outside the poll’s statistical margin of error.
I’ve thought that the most important local issue in Whitewater will be, paradoxically, the statewide gubernatorial race; I still think so. The schools referendum – no matter how important as policy – isn’t nearly so attention-getting.
Still, even with limited local election data, one could construct a reasonable upper and lower limit for the referendum’s chances. Results from the district’s communities in statewide races over the last few years, checked against referendum voting in relation to party voting during the most recent spring referendum, would give (I think) the rough boundaries of a referendum’s high and low levels.
Hardly a model, but still a reasoned approach, let’s say.
Why would upper and lower limits matter?
There’s a good reason: although the referendum will sail on statewide currents, there will be an independent local influence, too. It’s not as though nothing said locally will matter.
If it should be true that the vote is likely to be close, and likely to be close because the November 4th statewide contests will limit a lopsided result one way or the other, then a remaining question is how persuadable local voters will be on the referendum question.
If it’s likely to be lopsided persuasion won’t matter; if it’s a fixed and decided electorate persuasion will matter little.
A close race and a persuadable electorate will make advocacy more important than it would be otherwise.
I’ll always favor high-quality, high-octane advocacy – more information of good quality benefits a community.
It’s worth crunching prior election results over the next week, to estimate the limits of the vote, and consequently the importance of solid advocacy.