At a time of large labor protests, the near-victory of a previously-unknown Supreme Court candidate, and the prospect of recall elections against six GOP state senators, can Whitewater’s Democrats have a hard time in 2012?
Yes, for at least two reasons.
First, successful restrictions on public employees’ collective bargaining rights are meant to reduce unions’ coffers for 2012. Don’t think so? Just listen to Wisconsin’s Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald tell Fox News that’s an intended consequence of the legislation. See, Sen. Leader Fitzgerald Declares that GOP Win in Collective Bargaining Battle to Make ’12 Difficult for Obama.
By appellate court approval or by inclusion of bargaining restrictions in a budget bill, the GOP is likely to pass union limitations somehow. If the Republicans are right, that will mean less Wisconsin money for Democrats in ’12.
Second, and significant for a college town like Whitewater, would be a more restrictive photo ID requirement at the polls. Even a supposed lessening of the bill’s original restrictions will make student voting more difficult. See, Elections Board Director Criticizes Voter ID Bill. These restrictions would not be a local matter open to discretion, but the result of a statewide change in voting law.
As the campus has been a greater source of support for Democrats than Republicans, disqualification of student voters under a more restrictive state law would be a greater problem for Democrats.
So what will Whitewater’s Democrats do? They can manage by substituting enthusiasm for money, but there’s no substitute for votes. They’ll have to get students to the polls, and once there make sure that they’re eligible to vote under whatever new requirements apply.
A loss of even a few percent of voters might be decisive to elections in the city and the legislative district of which it is a part.
Local Democrats haven’t had a problem getting student voters to the polls, but they’ve not had these sort of voter ID requirements before. Assuring the same number of voters will require planning unlike that needed for past elections. Other communities with colleges will face these same challenges, but my focus here is Whitewater.
Neither major party in our city has been as structured and disciplined as one might expect in a larger city, with big teams of volunteers.
Even in small-town Whitewater, we may yet see if a major party’s volunteers can be as organized, prepared, and disciplined as the new terrain will require.