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Monthly Archives: November 2008

Daily Bread: November 7, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

There are no municipal public meetings scheduled in City of Whitewater for Friday. You have a clear path to the weekend.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts that today will be colder, with a high in the 40s. The Farmers’ Almanac ends a multi-day series with a prediction of “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS.

In our schools today, it’s activity night at the Middle School at 7 p.m.

This date in 1932, Wired reports, is the anniversary of the date that “Radio Enters the 25th Century“:

Space adventurer Buck Rogers debuts on CBS radio. The science fiction show, eventually called Buck Rogers in the 25th Century, will delight loyal fans over a span of 15 years and inspire aficionados for decades more.

Writer Phil Nowlan unveiled space swashbuckler Buck Rogers in a story called “Armageddon — 2419,” which was published in Amazing Stories magazine in August 1928. Nowlan collaborated with John F. Dille and Dick Calkins on a newspaper comic strip that started Jan. 7, 1929.

Daily Bread: November 6, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

In the City of Whitewater today there’s a meeting of the Common Council at 6:30 p.m. The agenda is available online.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts a 100% chance of showers a high temperature of 66 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1837, a strange moment from our past: Burlington, Iowa Selected as Temporary Capital of Wisconsin Territory:

On this date Burlington, Iowa was chosen as a temporary capital of the Wisconsin Territory. A year earlier, legislators offered a bill making Madison the capital with a temporary capital in Dubuque until which time a permanent building could be constructed in Madison. Legislators also proposed the City of Belmont as a temporary capital. One month later, on December 12th, a fire destroyed the two-story temporary capital in Burlington. The new legislature moved its headquarters to the Webber and Remey’s store in Burlington where they conducted government affairs until June 1838.

Predictive Political Markets — Predictive, Indeed

Yesterday, I posted about the political trading market at Intrade.com as a predictive political market. See, Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174. (For an earlier post on this topic, see also Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets.)

What did the traders say, as of yesterday morning?

Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.

Here’s where the totals stand this morning (Nov 5th), with two states still too-close-to-call:

Obama 349, McCain 163.

What about my guess? I chose against the traders yesterday, and allocated Ohio to McCain, for a prediction of Obama 344, McCain 194.

I should not have bet against their collective buying and selling — Ohio also went for Obama.

The political markets produced a predictive result much like the real results, two states still undecided.

Reassuring, in this season of anti-market criticism and, too often, hysteria.

Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.

Daily Bread: November 5, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

Well, it really is a new day, today. Over one hundred million people, having chosen freely, look in a different direction.

In the City of Whitewater today there’s a meeting of the Landmarks Commission at 5 p.m.

In our schools today, it’s the end of the first quarter — three more to go. At 7 p.m. tonight, there will be an FFA meeting at the high school.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts a breezy day with a high temperature of 72 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a day of “Dry and Cold” conditions. They’ll not both be right, although both might be wrong.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS — it wasn’t cold. The FA was so far off yesterday, that I could make all its forecasts up. That’s the problem about trying to forecast the day’s weather a year in advance. It’s not a challenge of weather, it’s a challenge of planning and prediction.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1912, a predictable result, from the Wisconsin Historical Society: Women’s Suffrage Voted Down:

n this date Wisconsin voters (all male) considered a proposal to allow women to vote. When the referendum was over, Wisconsin men voted women’s suffrage down by a margin of 63 to 37 percent. The referendum’s defeat could be traced to multiple causes, but the two most widely cited reasons were schisms within the women’s movement itself and a perceived link between suffragists and temperance that antagonized many German American voters. Although women were granted the vote in 1920 by the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Wisconsin’s own constitution continued to define voters as male until 1934.

The Wisconsin Historical Society’s assessment is too funny, really — a link with ‘temperance that antagonized many German American voters.’ I’m not suggesting the Historical Society assessment is wrong, but that it’s embarrassing that voters might have thought this way. One might not have been a supporter of the temperance movement, but of suffrage regardless.

At least, that’s the hope. Beer and suffrage — perfect together.

Live from Barr Campaign Headquarters on Election Night

Live from Barr Campaign Election Headquarters on Tuesday Evening — 11/4/08. It’s not the posh Phoenix Biltmore where the McCain campaign’s set up, nor the half of Chicago that the Obama campaign rented for its celebration, but it’s a place of clear principle.

Update — 8:06 PM — Characteristic of this year for the LP, the connection is loading only intermittently. One might say that’s a sign of popularity, and an underestimation of capacity needed. Alternatively, perhaps somewhere in transmission difficulty is the difference between the $1.2 million raised and the $20 million proudly expected this spring.

No matter — at least one of the major campaigns will find that millions more were still insufficient.

Update — 8:14 PM — Back up — can’t keep a good Party, and a good party, down!

A Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174

I’ve posted before about predictive political markets. (See, Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets, and later I started following the market at Intrade.com.)

What do they say for today, as of this writing, based on the trading preferences of large numbers of buyers and sellers at Intrade.com?

Here we go — Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.

Will these traders prove correct? Let’s assume that they’re wrong about a given state, say Ohio — a big place, with 20 electoral votes. Right now, they have bought and sold in a way that says they think Ohio will go to Obama. Even if one or two states slip from one column to another, the overall prediction would be a decisive one in favor of Obama.

(Note: One need not trade in all states; one presumably trades in states about which one has more confidence. The openness of the market, and freedom to pick a choose a single state, is an opportunity for knowledgeable traders. This should only strengthen confidence in the totals.)

They might be wrong; markets are not flawless, just generally better at predictions or allocations than competing predictive or regulatory schemes.

It’s a fairly decisive result traders expect, though.

I’ll offer a guess — traders are right, except for Ohio, so totals of Obama 344, McCain 194.

This means that I’m betting against the Ohio market, but otherwise with these traders on the results. (Traders have less overall confidence in the Ohio result, though, so it’s not as wild as saying that New York will go for McCain.)

Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.

Daily Bread: November 4, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

It’s the first Tuesday in November.

There is no public meeting to be found anywhere in the City of Whitewater today — there is only the right and necessary power of citizens to choose their representatives.

No one stands in your way, or decides for you.

Far more than one-hundred million across the continent will vote, this election. This, more than what comes after, is the measure of our strength.

Why pass this by?

The National Weather Service forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of 73 degrees, almost identical to yesterday. The Farmers’ Almanac begins a new prediction series with a forecast for “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS — it wasn’t stormy at all.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1909, from the Wisconsin Historical Society, offers a proud moment in Wisconsin industry: the Nation’s First Commercially Built Airplane:

On this date in Beloit, a plane was assembled and built by Wisconsin’s first pilot, Arthur P. Warner. This self-taught pilot was the 11th in the U.S. to fly a powered aircraft and the first in the U.S. to buy an aircraft for business use. Warner used it to publicize his automotive products.

Reagan ’84: Against Inflation

In this campaign commercial from 1984, entitled, “Inflation,” Reagan reminds Americans — as if they needed a reminder– that under Carter America suffered extraordinary inflation and interest rates, destructive to the economic well-being of every American.

The next administration can, through regulation and excessive spending, bring those miserable conditions back again.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Reagan ’80: Reagan’s Record

Less than a generation ago, against considerable scorn, a major party candidate defended the confident message of limited government and free choice through markets.

He defeated an incumbent president, and brought his party to control in the Senate.

That party has since drifted far from these sound principles, and in the years ahead, there may be fewer voices to advocate wise policy.

No matter — the message of individual rights, free markets, and peace is the message that libertarians defend to this day, with confidence and conviction.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Goldwater ’64: Symbols

Libertarians, be confident in this troubled season — here’s a video in which John Wayne narrates a Goldwater commercial entitled, “Symbols.” The commercial is directed, principally but only by implication, against communism.

Johnson branded Goldwater a warmonger, but Johnson’s own foreign policy record from his inauguration in 1965 to leaving office in January 1969 leaves admirers of the Johnson Administration little reason to be proud.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>