No surprises here — Like many libertarians, I’ve voted Libertarian today.
The party that advocates “smaller government, lower taxes, and more freedom,” and libertarians beyond it who advocate for “individual liberty, free markets, and peace” offer a hope for a better, more prosperous society.
I’ve posted before about predictive political markets. (See, Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets, and later I started following the market at Intrade.com.)
What do they say for today, as of this writing, based on the trading preferences of large numbers of buyers and sellers at Intrade.com?
Here we go — Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.
Will these traders prove correct? Let’s assume that they’re wrong about a given state, say Ohio — a big place, with 20 electoral votes. Right now, they have bought and sold in a way that says they think Ohio will go to Obama. Even if one or two states slip from one column to another, the overall prediction would be a decisive one in favor of Obama.
(Note: One need not trade in all states; one presumably trades in states about which one has more confidence. The openness of the market, and freedom to pick a choose a single state, is an opportunity for knowledgeable traders. This should only strengthen confidence in the totals.)
They might be wrong; markets are not flawless, just generally better at predictions or allocations than competing predictive or regulatory schemes.
It’s a fairly decisive result traders expect, though.
I’ll offer a guess — traders are right, except for Ohio, so totals of Obama 344, McCain 194.
This means that I’m betting against the Ohio market, but otherwise with these traders on the results. (Traders have less overall confidence in the Ohio result, though, so it’s not as wild as saying that New York will go for McCain.)
Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.
Good morning, Whitewater
It’s the first Tuesday in November.
There is no public meeting to be found anywhere in the City of Whitewater today — there is only the right and necessary power of citizens to choose their representatives.
No one stands in your way, or decides for you.
Far more than one-hundred million across the continent will vote, this election. This, more than what comes after, is the measure of our strength.
Why pass this by?
The National Weather Service forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of 73 degrees, almost identical to yesterday. The Farmers’ Almanac begins a new prediction series with a forecast for “Dry and Cold” conditions.
Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS — it wasn’t stormy at all.
In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1909, from the Wisconsin Historical Society, offers a proud moment in Wisconsin industry: the Nation’s First Commercially Built Airplane:
On this date in Beloit, a plane was assembled and built by Wisconsin’s first pilot, Arthur P. Warner. This self-taught pilot was the 11th in the U.S. to fly a powered aircraft and the first in the U.S. to buy an aircraft for business use. Warner used it to publicize his automotive products.
In this campaign commercial from 1984, entitled, “Inflation,” Reagan reminds Americans — as if they needed a reminder– that under Carter America suffered extraordinary inflation and interest rates, destructive to the economic well-being of every American.
The next administration can, through regulation and excessive spending, bring those miserable conditions back again.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Smaller government and reduced taxes bring prosperity; the alternative is diminished opportunity. Carter made America miserable, yet he schemed and regulated less than many in his party today.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Smaller government and reduced taxes bring prosperity; the alternative is diminished opportunity.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Less than a generation ago, against considerable scorn, a major party candidate defended the confident message of limited government and free choice through markets.
He defeated an incumbent president, and brought his party to control in the Senate.
That party has since drifted far from these sound principles, and in the years ahead, there may be fewer voices to advocate wise policy.
No matter — the message of individual rights, free markets, and peace is the message that libertarians defend to this day, with confidence and conviction.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Libertarians, be confident in this troubled season — here’s a video in which John Wayne narrates a Goldwater commercial entitled, “Symbols.” The commercial is directed, principally but only by implication, against communism.
Johnson branded Goldwater a warmonger, but Johnson’s own foreign policy record from his inauguration in 1965 to leaving office in January 1969 leaves admirers of the Johnson Administration little reason to be proud.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Good morning, Whitewater
There are no public meetings scheduled in Whitewater today.
School’s back in session. Tonight, there’s a special meeting of the school board at 6 p.m., in executive session (not a public meeting) regarding a student disciplinary matter.
In brighter events, there’s a cross country banquet at 5:30 p.m. today at the high school, and a 6:30 p.m. music parents’ meeting, also at the high school.
The National Weather Service forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of 74 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac ends its first prediction series for November with a forecast that it will be “Stormy for the Great Lakes.”
Last Week’s better predictions: Basically even — more detail from the NWS, but otherwise similar in general if not particular.
In Wisconsin History on this date, in 1936, from the Wisconsin Historical Society comes an unsurprising election result, considering the year: FDR carried Rock County, then a Republican stronghold:
On this date Rock County voted Democratic in a presidential election for the first time in 74 years. The county’s 17,987 votes for FDR eclipsed 14,689 for Republican Alf Landon. Janesville and Beloit both voted for Roosevelt, who won in the largest national election landslide in history.
(How big did Roosevelt win nationally? He won slightly over sixty percent of the popular vote, and all but two states’ electoral votes. Only Reagan has carried more states — all but Minnesota, in 1984.)
Libertarians, here is a direct and clear address, the antidote to empty rhetoric in this troubled season. Reagan speaks on behalf of Goldwater against the many errors of the Johnson Administration, in an address called A Time for Choosing. Reagan delivered versions of this speech several times during the campaign.
The full address, and transcript of it, is available online at the McMiller Center for Public Affairs of the University of Virginia. more >>
Libertarians, more cheer in this troubled season — Goldwater speaks against oppressive big government, in Punchcard, one of his 1964 campaign commercials.
Seems silly to some?
Johnson brought neither peace nor lasting prosperity. War, bloated government, administrative corruption, riots and discord — hardly a Great Society.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
In September, it was “Paulson to the Rescue,” and Fortune asked: “The Steely-Eyed Treasury Chief is Betting Billions on Bailouts. Can He Save Us from a Meltdown?’ Now, in November, Fortune sees something different when it asks, “Who Pays for the Bailout? You Do, Of Course!”
“Of Course!” Wait, wait, wait — you breathless cheerlearders smart editors at Fortune didn’t see as much only six weeks ago?
I scanned the September cover weeks ago, because a different story was sure to follow. On the November cover, even the dachshund, with a pasty complexion, looks worried. That dog’s seen his last can of Science Diet® — from here on out, it’ll probably be some no-name dog food from China listing “additional, semi-digestible ingredients.”
For a solid critique of the bailout, delivered around the time of Fortune‘s first cover, see Barry Ritholtz’s video interview, embedded in my post entitled, Four Minutes, Forty Seconds Against a Misguided Bailout.
Libertarians, be cheerful — Goldwater speaks against oppressive big government, in Boy on Bicycle, one of his 1964 campaign commercials.
From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>
Here’s the final segment of a five-part series from Reason.tv entitled, Saving Social Security. The animated video comes from Lineplot, a company that creatively describes financial topics.
I posted the first of the series, Pimp My Walker, on October 4th, the second part, Boom Baby Boom! on October 11th, the third, Policy Warrior on October 18th, and the fourth, Broken Trust on October 25th.
