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Author Archive for JOHN ADAMS

Free Markets

A Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174

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I’ve posted before about predictive political markets. (See, Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets, and later I started following the market at Intrade.com.)

What do they say for today, as of this writing, based on the trading preferences of large numbers of buyers and sellers at Intrade.com?

Here we go — Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.

Will these traders prove correct? Let’s assume that they’re wrong about a given state, say Ohio — a big place, with 20 electoral votes. Right now, they have bought and sold in a way that says they think Ohio will go to Obama. Even if one or two states slip from one column to another, the overall prediction would be a decisive one in favor of Obama.

(Note: One need not trade in all states; one presumably trades in states about which one has more confidence. The openness of the market, and freedom to pick a choose a single state, is an opportunity for knowledgeable traders. This should only strengthen confidence in the totals.)

They might be wrong; markets are not flawless, just generally better at predictions or allocations than competing predictive or regulatory schemes.

It’s a fairly decisive result traders expect, though.

I’ll offer a guess — traders are right, except for Ohio, so totals of Obama 344, McCain 194.

This means that I’m betting against the Ohio market, but otherwise with these traders on the results. (Traders have less overall confidence in the Ohio result, though, so it’s not as wild as saying that New York will go for McCain.)

Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.

Daily Bread

Daily Bread: November 4, 2008

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Good morning, Whitewater

It’s the first Tuesday in November.

There is no public meeting to be found anywhere in the City of Whitewater today — there is only the right and necessary power of citizens to choose their representatives.

No one stands in your way, or decides for you.

Far more than one-hundred million across the continent will vote, this election. This, more than what comes after, is the measure of our strength.

Why pass this by?

The National Weather Service forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of 73 degrees, almost identical to yesterday. The Farmers’ Almanac begins a new prediction series with a forecast for “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS — it wasn’t stormy at all.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1909, from the Wisconsin Historical Society, offers a proud moment in Wisconsin industry: the Nation’s First Commercially Built Airplane:

On this date in Beloit, a plane was assembled and built by Wisconsin’s first pilot, Arthur P. Warner. This self-taught pilot was the 11th in the U.S. to fly a powered aircraft and the first in the U.S. to buy an aircraft for business use. Warner used it to publicize his automotive products.

Libertarians

Reagan ’84: Against Inflation

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In this campaign commercial from 1984, entitled, “Inflation,” Reagan reminds Americans — as if they needed a reminder– that under Carter America suffered extraordinary inflation and interest rates, destructive to the economic well-being of every American.

The next administration can, through regulation and excessive spending, bring those miserable conditions back again.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Libertarians

Reagan ’80: Reagan’s Record

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Less than a generation ago, against considerable scorn, a major party candidate defended the confident message of limited government and free choice through markets.

He defeated an incumbent president, and brought his party to control in the Senate.

That party has since drifted far from these sound principles, and in the years ahead, there may be fewer voices to advocate wise policy.

No matter — the message of individual rights, free markets, and peace is the message that libertarians defend to this day, with confidence and conviction.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Libertarians

Goldwater ’64: Symbols

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Libertarians, be confident in this troubled season — here’s a video in which John Wayne narrates a Goldwater commercial entitled, “Symbols.” The commercial is directed, principally but only by implication, against communism.

Johnson branded Goldwater a warmonger, but Johnson’s own foreign policy record from his inauguration in 1965 to leaving office in January 1969 leaves admirers of the Johnson Administration little reason to be proud.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Daily Bread

Daily Bread: November 3, 2008

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Good morning, Whitewater

There are no public meetings scheduled in Whitewater today.

School’s back in session. Tonight, there’s a special meeting of the school board at 6 p.m., in executive session (not a public meeting) regarding a student disciplinary matter.

In brighter events, there’s a cross country banquet at 5:30 p.m. today at the high school, and a 6:30 p.m. music parents’ meeting, also at the high school.

The National Weather Service forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of 74 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac ends its first prediction series for November with a forecast that it will be “Stormy for the Great Lakes.”

Last Week’s better predictions: Basically even — more detail from the NWS, but otherwise similar in general if not particular.

In Wisconsin History on this date, in 1936, from the Wisconsin Historical Society comes an unsurprising election result, considering the year: FDR carried Rock County, then a Republican stronghold:

On this date Rock County voted Democratic in a presidential election for the first time in 74 years. The county’s 17,987 votes for FDR eclipsed 14,689 for Republican Alf Landon. Janesville and Beloit both voted for Roosevelt, who won in the largest national election landslide in history.

(How big did Roosevelt win nationally? He won slightly over sixty percent of the popular vote, and all but two states’ electoral votes. Only Reagan has carried more states — all but Minnesota, in 1984.)

Libertarians

Goldwater ’64: Reagan’s Time for Choosing for Goldwater

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Libertarians, here is a direct and clear address, the antidote to empty rhetoric in this troubled season. Reagan speaks on behalf of Goldwater against the many errors of the Johnson Administration, in an address called A Time for Choosing. Reagan delivered versions of this speech several times during the campaign.

The full address, and transcript of it, is available online at the McMiller Center for Public Affairs of the University of Virginia. more >>

Libertarians

Goldwater ’64: Punchcard

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Libertarians, more cheer in this troubled season — Goldwater speaks against oppressive big government, in Punchcard, one of his 1964 campaign commercials.

Seems silly to some?

Johnson brought neither peace nor lasting prosperity. War, bloated government, administrative corruption, riots and discord — hardly a Great Society.

From the Museum of the Moving Image. more >>

Economy, Free Markets

Fortune Comes Around on the Bailout

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In September, it was “Paulson to the Rescue,” and Fortune asked: “The Steely-Eyed Treasury Chief is Betting Billions on Bailouts. Can He Save Us from a Meltdown?’ Now, in November, Fortune sees something different when it asks, “Who Pays for the Bailout? You Do, Of Course!”

“Of Course!” Wait, wait, wait — you breathless cheerlearders smart editors at Fortune didn’t see as much only six weeks ago?

I scanned the September cover weeks ago, because a different story was sure to follow. On the November cover, even the dachshund, with a pasty complexion, looks worried. That dog’s seen his last can of Science Diet® — from here on out, it’ll probably be some no-name dog food from China listing “additional, semi-digestible ingredients.”

For a solid critique of the bailout, delivered around the time of Fortune‘s first cover, see Barry Ritholtz’s video interview, embedded in my post entitled, Four Minutes, Forty Seconds Against a Misguided Bailout.

Economy, Free Markets, Libertarians

Saving Social Security: Run, Sonny, Run

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Here’s the final segment of a five-part series from Reason.tv entitled, Saving Social Security. The animated video comes from Lineplot, a company that creatively describes financial topics.

I posted the first of the series, Pimp My Walker, on October 4th, the second part, Boom Baby Boom! on October 11th, the third, Policy Warrior on October 18th, and the fourth, Broken Trust on October 25th.

Holiday

Boo! Scariest Things in Whitewater 2008

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Here’s the FREE WHITEWATER list of the scariest things in Whitewater for 2008. Last year’s edition is available for comparison.

The list runs in reverse order, from mildly frightening to horrifying.

10. Nostalgia. Why is it necessary to describe everything today as a reminder of what some small, humble person in town did forty three years, seven months, and four days ago? Not merely describe it that way, but likely see it that way — so that the present is only visible through a hodgepodge of scenes from the past?

9. Temporal Imperialism. Much worse than seeing everything though a sepia-colored lens, is the idea that everything was better way-back-when. Yes, yes, I am sure that you think everyone in Whitewater was out of Norman Rockwell decades ago, as though that were a better life. They weren’t, it wasn’t, and it’s all just so much self-flattery and self-deception to think so.

8. Cheerleaders. Not just silly, but wrong, is the idea that the best a politician can do for this community is to be a cheerleader for it. A serious man would be humiliated to think this way, but it passes for profound here. If it makes so much sense to think this way, then why not dress the part, for the full effect? I’ll spring for the costume — just email your address to adams@freewhitewater.com. I won’t even charge for shipping.

7. Jaywalkers. Why even bother with an explanation — isn’t it obvious that these no-good, lawbreaking punks are a problem that should be restrained through easier ticketing? Fine away!

6. Squirrels. They’re still walking freely around here. A whole year, and what’s been done? Nothing — these beady-eyed demons should have been stopped long ago. Yet, our local politicians have done nothing. Set a few coyotes out in the downtown, and the problem will be solved.

5. Markets. Why have buyers and sellers, freely choosing, when you can have regulators, picking and deciding for us?

Leave it to the super-smart politicians on Council. You hush up, they’ll run Whitewater for you.

4. Conflicts of Interest. Like poltergeists, they’re invisible here. No one in Whitewater has ever seen a conflict of interest. One cannot see what is so easily rationalized and wished away.

Politicians and press, sycophantic friends on boards, etc. — they’re not conflicts if the town fathers insist that they’re not. It’s just that simple. Houdini couldn’t make things disappear so quickly.

3. Parental Homeowners. People from sick, disgusting communities like Waukesha, New Berlin, and Whitefish Bay are buying homes in Whitewater for their college-attending children. Can’t you stop this, town fathers? They’ve made our neighbors a wasteland, dead, Dead, DEAD!

2. Foreign Homeowners. Did you know, really did you, that there are — right here in our midst — foreign homeowners? Yes, not even God-fearing, red-blooded American parents, but people who grew up beyond our Republic. Worse, they came here. Worse still — nearly unbearable — some of them bought property in our very city.

Any other community would be happy to have willing buyers — for Whitewater, it’s an invasion.

By the way, who were all the ancestors of the local residents of our community, a few generations ago? Were their villages in Europe communities of milk and honey, streets paved with gold, fair maidens everywhere, in Germany or Scandinavia?

No, I think not — why leave if that were so?

My best guess — some vulgar, dark European rat’s nest, an overweight woman milking a scrawny cow, and not a bar of soap to be seen within a hundred miles.

They arrive here, and suddenly they’re all transformed into local versions of the Vanderbilts.

1. The Police and Fire Commission. Last year’s Number 1 was our police chief, and a year of even greater buffoonery places him as a permanent, Hall of Fame member. For this year, it’s the worst, most embarrassing board or commission in the city. Suitable for any small, reactionary town, the PFC never fails to act as a living cliché.

Why, by the way, the conjunction AND in the Commission’s title? It serves no purpose.

The PFC is a B-movie version of a rubber-stamp body, in contrast with the good and open traditions of our state.

Film these meetings, and we’ll have our own horror-movie industry, suitable for this or any other Halloween.