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U.S. Senate

Daily Bread for 11.15.24: Eric Hovde’s Bad Math

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 54. Sunrise is 6:47, and sunset is 4:31, for 9 hours, 44 minutes of daytime. The moon is full with 99.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1777, after 16 months of debate, the Continental Congress approves the Articles of Confederation (only coming into force after ratification in 1781).


While Eric Hovde lost the race for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin (see below), he’s doing better with conspiracy theorists on X:

Social media posts about election fraud in Wisconsin have surged since Election Day, surpassing all other battleground states, according to data collected by PeakMetrics, a software analytics company.

Between Nov. 6 and Nov. 12, the number of posts on X, formerly known as Twitter, mentioning election fraud in Wisconsin surged from 2,570 to 22,589 — an approximately 789% increase, according to the report. There has been no evidence to suggest voter fraud is a common issue in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin Republican Eric Hovde has been among those sowing doubts about voting integrity on X following the election, which he lost to Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

See Maia Pandey and Alex Groth, Posts on X about Wisconsin election fraud have increased nearly tenfold since Election Day, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 15, 2024.

Two days ago, I posted on a headline that nicely summarized Eric Hovde’s claims about his election loss: One week after Senate race was called for Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde admits he lost, but won’t concede.

Hovde’s claims about his loss to Tammy Baldwin are easily debunked, as Ricardo Torres writes at the Journal Sentinel:

Hovde went on to say that at 4 a.m. Milwaukee updated its count to include roughly 108,000 absentee ballots and that Baldwin won “nearly 90% of those ballots.”

“Statistically, this outcome seems improbable,” Hovde said. “As it didn’t match the pattern from same day voting in Milwaukee, where I received 22% of the vote.”  

….

Absentee ballots are just a portion of the total votes in any election. But since Hovde is focused on absentee ballots, it’s fairly easy to see his claim is incorrect by going to the city of Milwaukee’s election results page. It should be noted that some absentee voters chose third party candidates for U.S. senate or skipped that race.

Milwaukee received 108,964  absentee ballots by Nov. 5, according to the unofficial count. 

Of that group, Baldwin received 88,229 and Hovde received 17,699 absentee ballots. 

So Baldwin got about 80.9% of the absentee vote and Hovde got about 16.2% of it. 

Clearly Baldwin did not get “nearly 90%” of the absentee ballot vote.

Baldwin’s absentee ballot vote in Milwaukee was similar by proportion to her Election Day in-person vote in Milwaukee. Torres continues:

On Election Day itself, there were 140,043 votes cast in Milwaukee, according to the unofficial count. Of that number Baldwin received 102,598 and Hovde received 29,574.

So Baldwin pulled down 73.2% of the vote on Election Day compared to Hovde’s 21.1% of that vote. 

See Ricardo Torres, Fact check: Hovde’s claim Baldwin won ‘nearly 90%’ of absentee votes is a flop, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, November 15, 2024.

The wide disparities that Hovde claims are false: Baldwin did somewhat better with absentee ballots, but there was no statistically improbable result as Hovde claims.

Previously at FREE WHITEWATERDescribing Eric Hovde Accurately, Hovde’s Out-of-State Bank Recipient of Bogus Positive ReviewsHovde Rationalizes His Ignorance and SlothCalifornia Carpetbagger with a Utah Bank Doesn’t Bother to Read Farm Bill on Which Wisconsin Agriculture ReliesHovde & BaldwinHovde Spreads Lies About Hurricane Response (Of Course He Does)These Aren’t Subtle MenEric Hovde’s Banking Deal with a Cartel-Linked Mexican BankHovde’s Evident, Ignorant RacismEric Hovde Treats Wisconsin as a Side Hustle,  It’s Not Going So Well for HovdeEric Hovde Should Fire His Political Consultants and Hire a TherapistTim Michels 2.0 Eric Hovde Announces U.S. Senate Run, and Another Vanity Candidate.  


Castle appears to ‘float’ in clouds in eastern France:

Drone views show the medieval castle of Haut-Koenigsbourg, as if it were floating in clouds on a foggy day. Built in the 12th century by a Germanic imperial family, the castle was a mountain fortress which was later besieged and pillaged.

Daily Bread for 8.5.24: Baldwin Outraises Hovde 7-1

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 83. Sunrise is 5:52, and sunset is 8:09, for 14h 17m 18s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.0 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School Board goes into closed session shortly after 6 PM and returns to open session at 7 PM.

On this day in 1884, the cornerstone for the Statue of Liberty is laid on Bedloe’s Island (now Liberty Island) in New York Harbor.


If Eric Hovde weren’t spending millions of his own money, he’d already be out of Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race. Few others are ponying up. Baylor Spears reports Baldwin outraises Hovde nearly seven times over last month:

Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin, who is  running for her third term, outraised her opponent, Republican businessman Eric Hovde nearly 7-1 last month, according to recent Federal Election Commission reports. 

Baldwin reported more than $2.5 million in receipts from July 1-24, according to the FEC pre-primary reports. Almost $2.1 million of that came from individual contributions, and according to WisPolitics, of that, $773, 270 came from individuals who contributed less than $200.

Baldwin reported spending about $3.4 million, and ended the period with $6.3 million on hand.

Meanwhile, Hovde trailed the incumbent significantly, reporting $374,000 in contributions in the same time period. He spent nearly $2.7 million, and ended the period with $3.1 million on hand. He has kept up with Baldwin in part because of the $13 million in personal loans he has put into his campaign since February.

Hovde’s lack of appeal isn’t surprising. It’s what happens when Mitch McConnell creates a carpetbagger in a mad scientist’s laboratory.

Previously at FREE WHITEWATER: Hovde’s Evident, Ignorant Racism, Eric Hovde Treats Wisconsin as a Side Hustle,  It’s Not Going So Well for Hovde, Eric Hovde Should Fire His Political Consultants and Hire a TherapistTim Michels 2.0 Eric Hovde Announces U.S. Senate Runand Another Vanity Candidate.


Missing boaters rescued without injuries amid incoming hurricane:

The rescue happened amid unusually strong winds as Hurricane Debby passed by the area.

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