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Daily Bread for 1.18.24: No, Wisconsin’s Presidential Primary Won’t Matter

 Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 15. Sunrise is 7:20 and sunset 4:50 for 9h 29m 34s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 54% of its visible disk illuminated.

 The Whitewater’s Community Development Authority meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1977, scientists identify a previously unknown bacterium as the cause of the mysterious Legionnaires’ disease.


  So, one reads this morning the question Will Wisconsin’s presidential primary matter? Experts say we’ll see:

While presidential primaries began this week with the Iowa caucuses, both parties may have already selected their nominees by the time Wisconsin voters have a say. 

Wisconsin’s primary elections take place April 2. Most experts expect the nominations to be decided by then, barring some unforeseen event that reshapes the race. 

Most experts are probably right expecting the nomination to be decided by April, without needing a “we’ll see.” Epistemologically, it’s correct to say the significance of the April 2nd presidential primary in Wisconsin will depend on the vote tally on that day measured against any claims about that vote tally. In this way, “we’ll see” is the right answer from either experts or laypeople. “We’ll see,” however, in the title of the story so evades consideration of probabilities (including those from experts cited in this very story) that it’s not much of an answer.

This libertarian blogger will wade into these waters: the April 2nd Wisconsin presidential primary will not matter to the outcome of either major party’s nomination contest. 


Kobe the Husky Saves Philadelphia Neighborhood from Potentially Explosive Gas Leak:

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