FREE WHITEWATER

Daily Bread for 10.8.26: What Everyone Except One Ignorant Man and His Enablers Knew — Americans Pay the Tariffs

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 70. Sunrise is 6:59 and sunset is 6:25 for 11 hours 26 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waning crescent with 10.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Downtown Whitewater Activation Initiative holds an open house at 8:30 AM.

On this day in 1862, Union forces successfully halt the Confederate invasion of Kentucky after the Battle of Perryville.


Earlier this year, Donald J. Trump, having lived his whole life off an inherited real estate business from his father, declared of tariffs that “I believe the tariffs, paid for by foreign countries, will, like in the past, substantially replace the modern-day system of income tax, taking a great financial burden off” Americans. See Address Before a Joint Session of Congress on the State of the Union, Feb. 24, 2026, transcript reproduced in PBS NewsHour.

No and no again. On the contrary, these many burdensome tariffs that Trump has imposed are paid by Americans, whether businesses or consumers. Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University recently published an important study estimating how tariffs truly affect consumer prices. Tariffs raise consumer prices:

A tariff raises the price a U.S. importer (which could be a firm or a consumer) pays for a foreign good, unless the foreign exporter cuts its price to absorb some of the cost. In a previous post, we found that foreign exporters lowered their prices very little, so that nearly 90 percent of the 2025 tariffs were passed through to U.S. import prices. We find the same result here using data through February 2026. The effect is immediate: import prices rise almost one for one with tariffs in the first month after a tariff is raised. Our conclusion is unchanged when we account for exchange-rate movements: the dollar depreciated over this period, which also raised import prices, but we still estimate a tariff pass-through of around 90 percent.

[…]

Our estimates attribute this increase [in consumer goods prices] to the tariffs: by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly.

Tariffs Raised Consumer Goods Price Inflation

 Line chart tracking the actual change in consumer prices for the goods in the authors’ sample (solid red) and the authors’ estimate of the contribution of tariffs (dashed blue) in percentage (vertical axis) from 2022 to 2026 (horizontal axis); the authors estimate that by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods’ price inflation, and without them, goods’ prices would have fallen slightly.
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Statistics; U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; authors’ calculations.
Notes: The solid line is the twelve-month change in consumer prices for the sixty-seven non-oil goods categories in our sample, weighted by 2022 consumer expenditure. The dashed line subtracts our estimate of the contribution of tariffs, shown by the shaded area. The estimates compare goods that were more exposed to tariffs with goods that were less exposed, holding economy-wide factors fixed.

(Emphasis added.) See Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein, How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices?, Liberty St. Econ., October 6, 2026.

Consumer goods price inflation was falling quickly in 2023 and 2024, but began to rise (to a level now higher than in 2024) after Trump’s so-called “Liberation Day” imposition of tariffs.

Launching an ill-considered, ill-planned war in the Persian Gulf has done nothing to improve our economy. It has, however, done much to weaken Wisconsin’s economy. See FREE WHITEWATER, Wisconsin, Dependent on Canadian Trade, Braces for More Tariffs and Wisconsin’s Economy Depends on Diesel (and Now Diesel Costs Much More).


‘I hadn’t heard about a hurricane,’ Trump says on plans to watch Georgia-Alabama game:

Forecasts have the storm menacing the Gulf Coast. That might affect Alabama in coming days.

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