Daily Bread for 4.25.23: Baldwin as the Prohibitive Favorite

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 48. Sunrise is 5:56 AM and sunset 7:48 PM for 13h 52m 38s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 28.8% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1898, Congress declares that a state of war between the U.S. and Spain existed since April 21, when an American naval blockade of the Spanish colony of Cuba began.

It’s too soon to tell what the 2024 presidential race nationally or in Wisconsin will look like. That’s not true of the U.S. Senate race for Wisconsin. Writing from Washington, Jennifer Rubin observes Tammy Baldwin has picked the lock on split-ticket voters:

To explain her success, she shared two anecdotes. At a roundtable at a dairy farm, she met with a crowd that doesn’t frequently vote for Democrats. One voter needled her a bit. “Is that your truck out there?” she asked. “Well I have one just like it.” Touting her support for rural development and infrastructure, she said, “Potholes aren’t red or blue.” Asked after the event if he would vote Republican, the voter said no. “Did you listen to her? She’s working on my issues.”

Similarly, at a forge company, an operator responsible for pouring molten iron into molds asked in reference to then-President Donald Trump, “Why you always picking on my president?” She joked back, “Sometimes he deserves it!” She got a small smile out of him. She then went on to talk about her support for “Buy American” to ensure government purchases come from U.S. companies. Asked afterward who he would vote for, the voter said Baldwin. He explained his rationale for being pro-Trump and pro-Baldwin: “They both are for Buy American.”


Baldwin’s success is proof of some basic political nostrums. If you work incredibly hard, pay close attention to your state and solve people’s daily problems, partisan labels means less. Moreover, framing social issues as matters of “rights and freedoms” allows her to reach voters who don’t normally consider themselves to be “progressive.”

Next year in Wisconsin, it’s Baldwin’s race to lose. 

War in Ukraine: Russia failed to achieve its offensive goals, says ISW:

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