The final 2016 Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here key findings from the 10.26.16 to 10.31.16 poll (the full results are available online).
Clinton-Trump, Among LV:
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
Johnson-Stein, Among LV:
Libertarian Gary Johnson supported by 4%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 3%. Johnson support down as election nears. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
Feingold-Johnson, Among LV:
US Senate race in WI: New Marquette Law School Poll finds 45% for Russ Feingold, 44% for Ron Johnson. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
Anderson for Senate, Among LV:
In Senate race, Libertarian Phil Anderson now supported by 3%. He was at 4% earlier in Oct. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
Pres. Obama Approval:
President Obama job approval now at 52% favorable, 44% unfavorable. In early Oct., it was 52% and 43%. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
Gov. Walker Approval:
We reversed numbers here: approve is 42, disapprove 51. Last time was 44-51. Sorry for the slip up. https://t.co/GOOAgkIIQl
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 3, 2016
Key Takeaway:
Key takeaways, @PollsAndVotes says: Prez race been stable, Senate race has tightened. Modest shifts in views of candidates. #mulawpoll
— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) November 2, 2016
A few quick points:
- The Marquette Poll has been reliable these last few elections.
- The key takeaways seem reasonable to me (regarding Wisconsin).
- Third party candidates typically fade, and this poll reflects that development.
- Finally, the presidential race is so divisive, and coverage of it so impossible to avoid, that one finds local matters (even important ones) relatively unnoticed by comparison.
- There are important local races, including a school referendum for Whitewater, but I’ve come to think that in this presidential year, downballot contests will be a matter of (1) level turnout driven by the national race, and (2) the particular composition of that turnout. That’s caused me to put off until after the election some discussions that I wanted (and originally planned) to post before November 8th.
- Intense national coverage seems, to me, to obsure everything else. Better an extended analysis in a quieter time. One can be patient; there’s all the time in the world.