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Presidential race 2016

Campaign of Fraud

NBC reports on a deal between prosecutors in the federal Southern District of New York and AMI, the publisher of the pro-Trump National Enquirer: AMI, National Enquirer’s parent company, admitted it made $150,000 Cohen payment “in concert” with “a candidate’s presidential campaign” in order to “ensure that the woman did not publicize damaging allegations about…

Update: James Surowiecki on What the Press Missed About Trump’s Win

I posted yesterday on James Surowiecki’s contention that Trump’s success with non-college whites was predictable, but that Trump’s better-than-expected success with college-educated whites is what the press missed. See, James Surowiecki on What the Press Missed About Trump’s Win. Surowiecki makes a few follow-up remarks to his tweet-stream of yesterday. First, Surowiecki is not saying that…

Marquette Law Poll Results (Final 2016 Election Edition)

The final 2016 Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here key findings from the 10.26.16 to 10.31.16 poll (the full results are available online). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866080833921024 Johnson-Stein, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866345557454850 Feingold-Johnson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866560112918528 Anderson for Senate, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866871720316933 Pres. Obama Approval: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793877833588301824 Gov. Walker Approval: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793995424977666048 Key Takeaway: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793878844767866880…

Where Libertarians Stand on the Presidential Race

Libertarians have a political philosophy, and may also be members of a political party using that same name.  For those of us who are both ideologically libertarian and members of the national party (as I am), the statement yesterday from Libertarian vice presidential candidate Bill Weld (a former Republican governor of Massachusetts), summaries nicely our…

Marquette Law Poll Results (Early October ’16 Edition)

The early October Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are two key findings from the 10.6.16 to 10.9.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786255865674276864 Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/786256376905412608

Preparation

I’ve posted observations from Stuart Stevens, a GOP consultant and writer not affiliated with any presidential candidate this year. Here’s another, after last night’s debate: Saw last night why campaign managers focus on helping their candidates prepare for debates & don’t live on tv talking about debates. — stuart stevens (@stuartpstevens) September 27, 2016 Preparation…

Marquette Law Poll Results (Mid-September ’16 Edition)

The mid-September Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 9.15.16 to 9.18.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778645810653306880 Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778646197305217024 Feingold-Johnson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778647023847411715 Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/778647378228310016

Polls, Polls, Polls

In the weeks ahead, we’re sure to hear about dramatic results! or shocking details! from presidential or statewide polls.  Over at FiveThirtyEight, they’ve 13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro. All thirteen are instructive, but tips 1 and 2 are especially useful guidelines: Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.” Any poll described thusly is…

Marquette Law Poll Results (Late August Edition)

The latest Marquette Law School poll results are out, and here are a few key findings from the 8.25.16 to 8.28.16 poll (the full results will be available online later this afternoon). Clinton-Trump, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/771035593916747776 Clinton-Trump-Johnson-Stein, Among RV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/771035882145144832 Feingold-Johnson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/771036784482394112 Feingold-Johnson-Anderson, Among LV: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/771037003181948928