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The Who: Won’t Get Fooled Again

The Who may not be my favorite band, but here’s a clip of them performing Won’t Get Fooled Again, about the limits of polltical change — a very satisfying song —



We’ll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again

The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the foe, that’s all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain’t changed
‘Cause the banners, they all flown in the next war

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
No, no!

I’ll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I’ll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotized never lie

Do ya?

There’s nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I’ll get on my knees and pray
We don’t get fooled again
Don’t get fooled again
No, no!

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss more >>

Contrasting Barr and Nader on Obama’s Victory

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr had this to say about Obama’s election victory:

It just illustrates the tremendous demographic changes, generational changes in this country. This really is a very different country, in some ways much better country, than it was several years ago.

Grandstanding septuagenarian crackpot independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader had a different prespective on Obama’s victory:

His choice, basically, is whether he’s going to be Uncle Sam for the people of this country, or Uncle Tom for the giant corporations.

Nader’s run for president quite a few times, and, it’s now evident, at least once too often. I am confident in declaring that one-hundred percent of the voters who supported Nader were Grade-A jackasses.

Remembering Marshall Fritz, Defender of Liberty

You may not have heard of Marshall Fritz, who passed away in California this week after a battle with pancreatic cancer, aged 65. Fritz was no ordinary Californian, or American — he was a proud member of the libertarian movement, having fought for its principles for over three decades decades since coming up from liberalism.

Fritz was author of the World’s Smallest Political Quiz, a measurement of political affiliation well-known, if not its author. (I posted the on the Quiz in August.)

Fritz was far more — he ran for Congress, fought to preserve a space for private education in a nation with a vast public-school lobby, was a scholar of comparative theology, traveler, and devoted parent.

A fine tribute to Fritz’s school-reform efforts may be found at “Marshall Fritz, R.I.P.:
Remembering one of the most devoted and principled school reformers of all time
.”

He will be greatly missed. Others will carry on more easily having felt his encouraging influence.

Reason.tv: Economist Lee Ohanian Explains the “Bailout Puzzle”

Note 1: Ohanian and colleague Harold Cole calculated in 2004 that “FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by 7 years,” as announced in a UCLA press release.

Note 2: The actual study — not a press release — is considerable. Although the University of Chicago’s online version of the Journal of Political Economy is a subscription-only journal, the full text of the Ohanian-Cole study is available through BadgerLink, a hyperlink available on the website of the Irvin Young Memorial Library. Full Study Title: “New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis.” (It’s an academic study, but accessible to any audience, and well worth reading.)

Daily Bread: November 7, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

There are no municipal public meetings scheduled in City of Whitewater for Friday. You have a clear path to the weekend.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts that today will be colder, with a high in the 40s. The Farmers’ Almanac ends a multi-day series with a prediction of “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS.

In our schools today, it’s activity night at the Middle School at 7 p.m.

This date in 1932, Wired reports, is the anniversary of the date that “Radio Enters the 25th Century“:

Space adventurer Buck Rogers debuts on CBS radio. The science fiction show, eventually called Buck Rogers in the 25th Century, will delight loyal fans over a span of 15 years and inspire aficionados for decades more.

Writer Phil Nowlan unveiled space swashbuckler Buck Rogers in a story called “Armageddon — 2419,” which was published in Amazing Stories magazine in August 1928. Nowlan collaborated with John F. Dille and Dick Calkins on a newspaper comic strip that started Jan. 7, 1929.

Daily Bread: November 6, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

In the City of Whitewater today there’s a meeting of the Common Council at 6:30 p.m. The agenda is available online.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts a 100% chance of showers a high temperature of 66 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts “Dry and Cold” conditions.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1837, a strange moment from our past: Burlington, Iowa Selected as Temporary Capital of Wisconsin Territory:

On this date Burlington, Iowa was chosen as a temporary capital of the Wisconsin Territory. A year earlier, legislators offered a bill making Madison the capital with a temporary capital in Dubuque until which time a permanent building could be constructed in Madison. Legislators also proposed the City of Belmont as a temporary capital. One month later, on December 12th, a fire destroyed the two-story temporary capital in Burlington. The new legislature moved its headquarters to the Webber and Remey’s store in Burlington where they conducted government affairs until June 1838.

Predictive Political Markets — Predictive, Indeed

Yesterday, I posted about the political trading market at Intrade.com as a predictive political market. See, Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174. (For an earlier post on this topic, see also Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets.)

What did the traders say, as of yesterday morning?

Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.

Here’s where the totals stand this morning (Nov 5th), with two states still too-close-to-call:

Obama 349, McCain 163.

What about my guess? I chose against the traders yesterday, and allocated Ohio to McCain, for a prediction of Obama 344, McCain 194.

I should not have bet against their collective buying and selling — Ohio also went for Obama.

The political markets produced a predictive result much like the real results, two states still undecided.

Reassuring, in this season of anti-market criticism and, too often, hysteria.

Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.

Daily Bread: November 5, 2008

Good morning, Whitewater

Well, it really is a new day, today. Over one hundred million people, having chosen freely, look in a different direction.

In the City of Whitewater today there’s a meeting of the Landmarks Commission at 5 p.m.

In our schools today, it’s the end of the first quarter — three more to go. At 7 p.m. tonight, there will be an FFA meeting at the high school.

The National Weather Service forecast predicts a breezy day with a high temperature of 72 degrees. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts a day of “Dry and Cold” conditions. They’ll not both be right, although both might be wrong.

Yesterday’s better prediction: NWS — it wasn’t cold. The FA was so far off yesterday, that I could make all its forecasts up. That’s the problem about trying to forecast the day’s weather a year in advance. It’s not a challenge of weather, it’s a challenge of planning and prediction.

In Wisconsin history on this date, in 1912, a predictable result, from the Wisconsin Historical Society: Women’s Suffrage Voted Down:

n this date Wisconsin voters (all male) considered a proposal to allow women to vote. When the referendum was over, Wisconsin men voted women’s suffrage down by a margin of 63 to 37 percent. The referendum’s defeat could be traced to multiple causes, but the two most widely cited reasons were schisms within the women’s movement itself and a perceived link between suffragists and temperance that antagonized many German American voters. Although women were granted the vote in 1920 by the 19th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, Wisconsin’s own constitution continued to define voters as male until 1934.

The Wisconsin Historical Society’s assessment is too funny, really — a link with ‘temperance that antagonized many German American voters.’ I’m not suggesting the Historical Society assessment is wrong, but that it’s embarrassing that voters might have thought this way. One might not have been a supporter of the temperance movement, but of suffrage regardless.

At least, that’s the hope. Beer and suffrage — perfect together.

Live from Barr Campaign Headquarters on Election Night

Live from Barr Campaign Election Headquarters on Tuesday Evening — 11/4/08. It’s not the posh Phoenix Biltmore where the McCain campaign’s set up, nor the half of Chicago that the Obama campaign rented for its celebration, but it’s a place of clear principle.

Update — 8:06 PM — Characteristic of this year for the LP, the connection is loading only intermittently. One might say that’s a sign of popularity, and an underestimation of capacity needed. Alternatively, perhaps somewhere in transmission difficulty is the difference between the $1.2 million raised and the $20 million proudly expected this spring.

No matter — at least one of the major campaigns will find that millions more were still insufficient.

Update — 8:14 PM — Back up — can’t keep a good Party, and a good party, down!

A Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174

I’ve posted before about predictive political markets. (See, Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets, and later I started following the market at Intrade.com.)

What do they say for today, as of this writing, based on the trading preferences of large numbers of buyers and sellers at Intrade.com?

Here we go — Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.

Will these traders prove correct? Let’s assume that they’re wrong about a given state, say Ohio — a big place, with 20 electoral votes. Right now, they have bought and sold in a way that says they think Ohio will go to Obama. Even if one or two states slip from one column to another, the overall prediction would be a decisive one in favor of Obama.

(Note: One need not trade in all states; one presumably trades in states about which one has more confidence. The openness of the market, and freedom to pick a choose a single state, is an opportunity for knowledgeable traders. This should only strengthen confidence in the totals.)

They might be wrong; markets are not flawless, just generally better at predictions or allocations than competing predictive or regulatory schemes.

It’s a fairly decisive result traders expect, though.

I’ll offer a guess — traders are right, except for Ohio, so totals of Obama 344, McCain 194.

This means that I’m betting against the Ohio market, but otherwise with these traders on the results. (Traders have less overall confidence in the Ohio result, though, so it’s not as wild as saying that New York will go for McCain.)

Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.