Snowboarder Alex Yoder searches to the ends of the earth for the lost art of “snow-surfing” only to find the answers he seeks on Bottom Turn Island.
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.28.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Sunday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 45. Sunrise is 6:41 AM and sunset 7:17 PM, for 12h 35m 43s of daytime. The moon is full with 99.9% of its visible disk illuminated.
On this day in 1979, a coolant leak at the Three Mile Island‘s Unit 2 nuclear reactor outside Harrisburg, Pennsylvania leads to the core overheating and a partial meltdown.
Recommended for reading in full —
Samuel Weinstein writes The Antitrust Cases Against Facebook And Google: In Search of a Smoking Gun:
For an antitrust plaintiff, the most powerful pieces of evidence often can be the defendant’s own documents. Customer and competitor testimony can be helpful to understand the competitive impact of a merger or specific conduct, though both customers and rivals may have biases that color their views of the case. Third-party testimony—from industry analysts, for example—also can be persuasive. But when the defendant’s own words support the plaintiff’s theory of the case, that can be outcome shifting. In the Microsoft case, the government effectively used Bill Gates’ emails and other internal Microsoft documents against the company. Doug Melamed, the Antitrust Division’s Acting Assistant Attorney General at the time the case was litigated, stated in a recent interview that the government’s case “was built on these emails.”
By this measure, the FTC’s Facebook complaint bodes well for its case. It is replete with powerful Facebook documents that directly support the FTC’s theory of the case. The agency alleges that Facebook engaged in a combination of anticompetitive acquisitions (Instagram and WhatsApp) and exclusionary conduct involving access conditions on its application programming interfaces (APIs). Its case with regard to Facebook’s acquisition strategy is neatly summarized by a line from a 2008 email from Mark Zuckerberg: “it is better to buy than compete.” This statement has the same pithy (and damaging) quality as the line attributed to a Microsoft executive that the company’s strategy was to “cut off Netscape’s air supply.”
Kelly Mena reports Former Trump chief of staff calls ex-President’s Capitol riot claims ‘manifestly false’:
Mick Mulvaney, who stepped down as Trump’s special envoy to Northern Ireland after the insurrection, called Trump’s comments that his supporters were “hugging and kissing” police officers and posed “zero threat,” despite widespread violence, “manifestly false.”
“I was surprised to hear the President say that. Clearly there were people who were behaving themselves, and then there were people who absolutely were not, but to come out and say that everyone was fine and there was no risk, that’s just manifestly false — people died, other people were severely injured,” Mulvaney told CNN’s Pamela Brown on “Newsroom.”
“It’s not right to say there was no risk, I don’t know how you can say that when people were killed,” he added.
Ari Berman writes John Roberts Said “Things Have Changed Dramatically” in the South. Georgia Shows Why He’s Wrong:
“Things have changed dramatically” in the South, Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in 2013 when he authored the majority opinion gutting the Voting Rights Act, ruling that states with a long history of discrimination no longer needed to have changes to their voting procedures approved by the federal government.
Voter suppression in Georgia is Exhibit A for why he is wrong.
After Joe Biden carried the state in November and Black voters turned out in record numbers in the January runoffs to elect Democrat Raphael Warnock as the state’s first Black senator and Democrat Jon Ossoff as the state’s first Jewish senator, Georgia Republicans passed a sweeping rewrite of the state’s election laws on Thursday to make it harder for Democratic constituencies to vote and have their ballots counted.
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.27.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Saturday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of 52. Sunrise is 6:43 AM and sunset 7:16 PM, for 12h 32m 49s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 97.8% of its visible disk illuminated.
On this day in 1981, the Solidarity movement in Poland stages a warning strike, in which at least 12 million Poles walk off their jobs for four hours.
Recommended for reading in full —
Shawn Hubler, Tim Arango, and Anemona Hartocollis report U.S.C. Agrees to Pay $1.1 Billion to Patients of Gynecologist Accused of Abuse (‘The staggering sum — a combination of three sets of settlements with hundreds of alleged victims of Dr. George Tyndall — sets a record for collegiate sex abuse payouts’):
“On one hand, it really exemplifies the gravity of what Tyndall’s survivors had to experience, and really set in stone our truth as to what occurred,” said Ms. Morgan, now a 27-year-old lawyer. “But it’s also a really grueling reminder of the price tag U.S.C. was willing to put on our safety and our mental health.”
John C. Manly, who represented the third group of plaintiffs, said that “the reason U.S.C. paid this money was that there was culpability — they knew early on, in the early ’90s and all the way through his tenure that this was happening.”
This week’s settlement, which he said would be distributed among the plaintiffs in awards ranging from about $250,000 to several million dollars, will provide by far the largest per-victim payout, he said. But combined, the outcome of the litigation sends a message, he added: “If you’re an institution of higher education, you will pay if you do this.”
Anne Applebaum describes The Science of Making Americans Hurt Their Own Country:
The problem is not only the outgrowth of the peculiar climate created by Donald Trump—however simple and satisfying such an explanation might be. Think, for a moment, about why the Russian state indulges in this kind of activity, year in and year out, despite the political costs and the risk of sanctions: Because it’s very cheap, it’s very easy, and a lot of evidence suggests that it works.
For decades now, Russian security services have studied a concept called “reflexive control”—the science of how to get your enemies to make mistakes. To be successful, practitioners must first analyze their opponents deeply, to understand where they get their information and why they trust it; then they need to find ways of playing with those trusted sources, in order to insert errors and mistakes. This way of thinking has huge implications for the military; consider how a piece of incorrect information might get a general to make a mistake. But it works in politics too. The Russian security services have now studied us and worked out (it probably wasn’t very hard) that large numbers of Americans—not only Fox News pundits and OANN broadcasters but also members of Congress—are very happy to accept sensational information, however tainted, from any source that happens to provide it. As long as it suits their partisan frames, and as long as it can be used against their opponents, they don’t care who invented it or for what purpose.
As a result, supplying an edited audiotape or a piece of false evidence to one of the bottom-feeders of the information ecosystem is incredibly easy; after that, others will ensure that it rises up the food chain. Russian disinformation doesn’t succeed thanks to the genius of Russians; it succeeds thanks to the sharp partisanship of Americans. Russian disinformation works because Americans allow it to work—and because those same Americans don’t care anymore about the harm they do to their country.
Adventure, Cats
Friday Catblogging: Gary the Adventure Cat
by JOHN ADAMS •
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.26.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Friday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 51. Sunrise is 6:45 AM and sunset 7:15 PM, for 12h 29m 55s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 92.7% of its visible disk illuminated.
On this day in 1945, the Battle of Iwo Jima ends as the island is officially secured by American forces.
Recommended for reading in full —
Sarah Binder writes Mitch McConnell is wrong. Here’s the filibuster’s ‘racial history’:
Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) argued Tuesday that the Senate filibuster “has no racial history at all. None. There’s no dispute among historians about that.”
That’s false. Historians know the filibuster is closely intertwined with the nation’s racial past and present. To be sure, senators have filibustered issues other than civil rights over the Senate’s history. But it is impossible to write that history without recognizing the centrality of race.
….
To study filibusters after the Senate created cloture in 1917, Smith and I counted up measures “killed” by a filibuster. We sought evidence that a majority of the House, a majority of the Senate, and the president favored a measure — and yet it still died after debate on the Senate floor.
In doing so, we found that, of measures derailed by filibusters in the 20th century, civil rights measures dominated. Of the 30 measures we identified between 1917 and 1994, exactly half addressed civil rights — including measures to authorize federal investigation and prosecution of lynching, to ban the imposition of poll taxes and to prohibit discrimination on the basis of race in housing sales and rentals.
Keep in mind, the 20th century filibuster scorched many civil rights measures beyond those that it killed outright. Senators secured passage of several celebrated measures to addressing racial equity — such as the Civil Rights Act of 1964 — after defeating filibusters by segregationist senators. That history is surely why former president Barack Obama last year called the filibuster a “Jim Crow relic.”
Murray Waas reports Trump aide concealed work for PR firm and misled court to dodge child support:
Jason Miller – who remains close to Trump, and who today serves as a senior adviser to the former president – also later appears to have misled a Florida court about this employment status, asserting in a sworn statement that he could no longer comply with a court order requiring him to pay child-support payments because of an alleged “major financial setback” and was effectively out of work.
Miller cited his termination as a reason he could not meet court-mandated payments – even though he had secretly agreed to a new contract with Teneo that meant doing the same work for the same fee.
Miller resigned as a managing editor of Teneo, the powerhouse corporate advisory firm, on 21 June 2019, after posting a series of obscenity-laced tweets about the Democratic congressman Jerrold Nadler, the chairman of the House judiciary committee.
“I have parted ways with Teneo by mutual consent and look forward to … my next move,” Miller said in a statement he provided to the New York Times and other news outlets.
But Miller’s departure from Teneo was a sham. Previously undisclosed confidential records from inside Teneo show that on the same day Miller signed a formal “separation agreement and general release” from Teneo, he signed a new contract with the firm, whereby Teneo agreed to secretly engage Miller as a consultant, through a hastily formed LLC, at the very same base compensation of nearly $500,000 doing the very same work.
How a Mysterious Ship Helps North Korea Evade Oil Sanctions:
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.25.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Thursday in Whitewater will see scattered showers with a high of 49. Sunrise is 6:46 AM and sunset 7:13 PM, for 12h 27m 00s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 85.8% of its visible disk illuminated.
Whitewater’s Community Development Authority meets via audiovisual conferencing at 5:30 PM.
On this day in 1965, civil rights activists led by Martin Luther King Jr. successfully complete their 4-day, 50-mile march from Selma to the capitol in Montgomery, Alabama.
Recommended for reading in full —
Daphne Chen reports Appeals court weighs lawsuit over naming businesses linked to COVID-19 outbreaks:
A Wisconsin appeals court heard arguments Wednesday over a lawsuit regarding the release of data on businesses linked to COVID-19 cases — records first requested by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel more than nine months ago.
Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce, the state’s largest business lobby, sued in October to stop the release of the information to media outlets, arguing that disclosure of the information would “irreparably harm” businesses.
The Madison-based District IV Court of Appeals agreed to take on the case after a Waukesha County circuit judge sided with WMC and temporarily blocked the state health department from releasing the data.
….
Lawyers for the Journal Sentinel and the state have argued that the business lobby is not one of the groups awarded the right to challenge the release of public records as defined by the state Legislature.
However, on Wednesday, WMC attorney Ryan Walsh argued that the organization has the standing to sue because the data — which does not contain the names of people — is derived from confidential medical records.
“It can’t be that any record in the government’s possession is an open record,” Walsh said. “(The state) has all kinds of records that can’t be released. What I’m asking the court to consider is the broad implications of this case.”
Judges Kloppenburg and Fitzpatrick questioned Walsh on whether the WMC can speak for businesses who are not members of the association, and whether the WMC represents business owners or employees.
“We don’t understand how you can be also taking on the mantle of speaking for the interest of the employees,” Kloppenburg said, adding that some employees “might want the public to know that there have been a lot of COVID cases where they’re working.”
Greg Sargent writes How Trump is exposing the ugly truth about the GOP plan to retake power:
The focus-grouped phrase justifying all this is “election integrity.” That’s the name of a new group, run by the Republican National Committee, that is developing more such proposals for export to states.
But Trump has already told us what standing for “election integrity” really means: making it harder to vote for the express purpose of making it easier for Republicans to win future elections.
Trump made this explicit during his Conservative Political Action Conference speech. He declared that the GOP must be the party of “election integrity” and that this means reversing efforts to make it easier to vote wherever possible and that this is an “urgent” matter facing the GOP.
Speaking about the 2020 election, Trump said: “We can never allow this to happen again.”
It is “urgent” for the GOP to make it harder to vote wherever possible, in the name of “election integrity,” and the 2020 election loss drove this home.
Christina Jewett and Lauren Weber report Former Covid official Deborah Birx joins company behind hazardous air-cleaners banned in California:
The former top White House coronavirus adviser under President Donald Trump, Dr Deborah Birx, has joined an air-cleaning company that built its business, in part, on technology that is now banned in California due to health hazards.
Dolphins Spotted Swimming in New York’s East River Tuesday Morning:
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.24.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Wednesday in Whitewater will see occasional showers with a high of 55. Sunrise is 6:48 AM and sunset 7:12 PM, for 12h 24m 04s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 77.4% of its visible disk illuminated.
Whitewater’s Pedestrian and Bicycle Advisory Committee meets via audiovisual conferencing at 5 PM.
On this day in 1895, Joshua Slocum, the first person to sail single-handedly around the world, sets sail from Boston, Massachusetts aboard the sloop Spray.
Recommended for reading in full —
Brian Klaas writes of Peter Pomerantsev in He worked in Russian media. He recognizes the same tactics at Fox News:
In a newly released report, U.S. intelligence agencies outline how Russia yet again sought to subvert American democracy. The findings confirm that the Kremlin tried to plant damaging disinformation about Joe Biden among associates of then-President Donald Trump.
That report and others that preceded it are important, because the foreign threat to American democracy is real and growing. But they should not distract us from a disturbing reality: The most serious danger to the United States from the Russian propaganda playbook doesn’t come from Moscow. It comes from Manhattan, where Fox News prime-time hosts broadcast conspiracy theories and disinformation while mimicking tactics that insiders in Russian media easily recognize.
….
Specifically, Pomerantsev points to two major areas of strategic overlap. First, there’s a shared war on facts that tries to convince the viewer that accountability is a fool’s errand because true objectivity does not exist.
“There’s this kind of pop-postmodernism, where Sean Hannity will say things like objectivity doesn’t exist, everybody’s biased,” Pomerantsev says. He points to Hannity’s infamous interview with Ted Koppel, in which he contrasted his own style with what he sees as the charade of “objective” facts in other areas of the press. “I don’t pretend that I’m fair and balanced and objective,” Hannity bizarrely boasted.
“That’s exactly the same argument the Russians make,” Pomerantsev says. He recalls a famous phrase uttered by Dmitry Kiselev, a prime-time TV host who was also appointed by Vladimir Putin to run Kremlin’s international propaganda network, Rossiya Segodnya. “Objectivity is a myth that is proposed and imposed on us.”
….
Pomerantsev sees another commonality between Fox News and Russian media. Both, he argues, treat news as entertainment, complete with characters designed to depict those who hold opposing viewpoints as buffoonish caricatures. “They turn everything into a Jerry Springer show. … Essentially, Tucker Carlson has ‘idiot liberals’ on.” Fox, he says, likes to present extreme left-wingers whose positions can be easily caricatured; Russian TV uses cartoonish members of the opposition as objects of ridicule.
Sam Levine reports Republicans wage ‘coordinated onslaught’ on voting rights:
Republicans have openly talked about their intentions. “Everybody shouldn’t be voting,” John Kavanagh, a Republican in the Arizona state legislature, told CNN earlier this month. “Quantity is important, but we have to look at the quality of votes, as well.”
Some Republicans say that their efforts to put new voting restrictions in place are part of an effort to restore confidence in elections and prevent voter fraud, which is extremely rare.
But others have shown that their motivation is anti-democratic. Trump dismissed proposals to make it easier to vote last year by saying: “You’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.” And this month, Michael Carvin, a lawyer representing the Arizona Republican party, said something similar when Justice Amy Coney Barrett asked him what interest the party had in defending two Arizona voting restrictions. Lifting those restrictions, Carvin said, “puts us at a competitive disadvantage relative to Democrats. Politics is a zero-sum game.”
(Video link updated) Suez Canal Blocked by Stuck Container Ship:
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.23.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Tuesday in Whitewater will see scattered showers with a high of 64. Sunrise is 6:50 AM and sunset 7:11 PM, for 12h 21m 10s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 68.1% of its visible disk illuminated.
On this day in 1909, Theodore Roosevelt leaves New York for a post-presidency safari in Africa. The trip is sponsored by the Smithsonian Institution and National Geographic Society.
Recommended for reading in full —
Erin Cunningham reports NIH questions AstraZeneca trial data, calls it ‘incomplete’:
British-Swedish pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca may have only used partial data when it announced the results from a U.S. trial of its coronavirus vaccine, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said Tuesday in a highly unusual rebuke.
The agency, part of the National Institutes of Health, said in a statement that it was concerned AstraZeneca used outdated information from the large-scale trial when it reported the results Monday, “which may have provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data.”
It urged the company, which developed its vaccine with Oxford University, to work with the U.S. Data Safety and Monitoring Board to review the data and release the updated information “as quickly as possible.” AstraZeneca had said Monday that the vaccine was shown to be 79 percent effective against symptomatic covid-19 — and that it was 100 percent effective against severe illness.
Michael Gerson writes Ron Johnson isn’t a Republican outlier:
There have always been bigots with access to a microphone. But in this case [Johnson’s remarks on Black Lives Matter], Johnson did not face the hygienic repudiation of his party. Republican leaders preferred a different strategy: putting their fingers in their ears and humming loudly. Republicans have abolished their ideological police.
The reason is simple. After four years of Donald Trump, Johnson’s sentiments are not out of the Republican mainstream. They are an application of the prevailing Republican ideology — that the “real” America is under assault by the dangerous other: Violent immigrants. Angry Blacks. Antifa terrorists. Suspicious Muslims. And don’t forget “the China virus.”
Trump did not create such views. But he normalized them in an unprecedented fashion. Under Trump’s cover, this has been revealed as the majority position of Republicans, or at least engaged, activist Republicans. A recent New York Times poll found 65 percent of people who identify with the GOP to still be Trump “die-hards,” Trump “boosters” or captive to conspiracy theories. And most of the rest find nothing disqualifying in Trump’s pathologically divisive performance as president.
(Gerson is right that Johnson is not an outlier among ordinary Republicans on race, or among other false notions he holds. He is, however, notably eager among the Senate’s GOP caucus to peddle these views at any opportunity.)
Danielle Kaeding reports Audubon Plan Aims To Restore Nearly 300K Acres Of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands To Benefit Birds:
A new report from the Great Lakes regional arm of the National Audubon Society is outlining its plan to restore and protect a dozen areas that support region’s birds. Climate change, development and invasive species are threatening coastal areas of the Great Lakes region that is home to 350 bird species.
Great Lakes Audubon has identified 12 regions and nearly 300,000 acres of coastal wetlands for protection and restoration to benefit 14 marsh bird species that have been on the decline. Shrinking bird populations in the region are part of a larger trend as North America has lost nearly 3 billion birds since 1970.
….
The 12 sites include 10 projects in Green Bay and the St. Louis River estuary in the Twin Ports where the black tern hasn’t been seen since the 1990s. The largest project prioritized in the estuary seeks to restore 850 acres of marsh in Allouez Bay in Superior that would support the species.
‘You can’t escape the smell’: mouse plague grows to biblical proportions across eastern Australia:
Bigotry, Conspiracy Theories, Covidiocy, Crackpots, Disinformation, Sen. Ron Johnson, Trumpism, U.S. Senate, Unfit
Sen. Ron Johnson: ‘An all-access purveyor of misinformation’
by JOHN ADAMS •
Ron Johnson, one of the two United States senators representing Wisconsin, has earned a new epithet:
BROOKFIELD, Wis. — Senator Ron Johnson incited widespread outrage when he said recently that he would have been more afraid of the rioters who rampaged the Capitol on Jan. 6 had they been members of Black Lives Matter and antifa.
But his revealing and incendiary comment, which quickly prompted accusations of racism, came as no surprise to those who have followed Mr. Johnson’s career in Washington or back home in Wisconsin. He has become the Republican Party’s foremost amplifier of conspiracy theories and disinformation now that Donald Trump himself is banned from social media and largely avoiding appearances on cable television.
Mr. Johnson is an all-access purveyor of misinformation on serious issues such as the pandemic and the legitimacy of American democracy, as well as invoking the etymology of Greenland as a way to downplay the effects of climate change.
In recent months, Mr. Johnson has sown doubts about President Biden’s victory, argued that the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was not an armed insurrection, promoted discredited Covid-19 treatments, said he saw no need to get the coronavirus vaccine himself and claimed that the United States could have ended the pandemic a year ago with the development of a generic drug if the government had wanted that to happen.
(Emphasis added.)
See also a dedicated category chronicling Johnson’s accelerating decline.
Music
Monday Music: Lana Del Rey, Not All Who Wander are Lost
by JOHN ADAMS •
Lana Del Rey is, in the language of our time, a complicated woman, with all the contradictions immanent in complication. The passage from Elizabeth Woolridge Grant to Lana Del Rey was unlikely to lead elsewhere.
Daily Bread
Daily Bread for 3.22.21
by JOHN ADAMS •
Monday in Whitewater will be mostly cloudy with a high of 60. Sunrise is 6:52 AM and sunset 7:10 PM, for 12h 18m 14s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 58.4% of its visible disk illuminated.
Downtown Whitewater, Inc. meets via audiovisual conferencing at 6 PM.
On this day in 1993, the Intel Corporation ships the first Pentium chips (80586), featuring a 60 MHz clock speed, 100+ MIPS, and a 64-bit data path.
Recommended for reading in full —
Robin Stein, Haley Willis, Danielle Miller, and Michael S. Schmidt report ‘We’ve Lost the Line!’: Radio Traffic Reveals Police Under Siege at Capitol (‘The Times obtained District of Columbia police radio communications and synchronized them with footage from the scene to show in real time how officers tried and failed to stop the attack on the U.S. Capitol’):
Katie Benner reports Evidence in Capitol Attack Most Likely Supports Sedition Charges, Prosecutor Says:
Evidence the government obtained in the investigation into the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol most likely meets the bar necessary to charge some of the suspects with sedition, Michael R. Sherwin, the federal prosecutor who had been leading the Justice Department’s inquiry, said in an interview that aired on Sunday.
The department has rarely brought charges of sedition, the crime of conspiring to overthrow the government.
But in an interview with “60 Minutes,” Mr. Sherwin said prosecutors had evidence that most likely proved such a charge.
“I personally believe the evidence is trending toward that, and probably meets those elements,” Mr. Sherwin said. “I believe the facts do support those charges. And I think that, as we go forward, more facts will support that.”
….
The statute on seditious conspiracy also says that people who conspire to “oppose by force the authority” of the government or use force “to prevent, hinder or delay the execution of any law of the United States” can be charged with sedition.
Sophie Carson reports Wisconsin QAnon believer shot paintball gun at Army Reserve members in Pewaukee, threatened ‘mass casualty’ event, prosecutors say:
A heavily armed Waukesha County man and QAnon believer who recently traveled to Washington, D.C., and promised violence there was twice taken into custody and released before being arrested Friday on federal charges.
Prosecutors say Ian Alan Olson, 31, of Nashotah drove a car spray-painted with QAnon slogans to the Wisconsin Army Reserve Center in Pewaukee on March 15 and shouted, “This is for America,” before he fired paintball rounds at two reservists nearby.
He also told intake staff at the Waukesha County Jail that he would “cause mass casualty” if he were released, according to a criminal complaint filed in federal court.
“I am ready for this. How many people need to die for a message to get across,” he said, according to the complaint.
Video of the volcanic eruption at Iceland’s Geldingardalur valley in Reykjanes peninsula:
A new video of the eruption at Geldingardalur valley in Reykjanes peninsula. Taken from the Coast Guard helicopter. #Reykjanes #Eruption #Fagradalsfjall pic.twitter.com/B862heMzQL
— Icelandic Meteorological Office – IMO (@Vedurstofan) March 19, 2021
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Coronavirus, Culture, Documentary
Frontline: Death Is Our Business
by JOHN ADAMS •
How COVID-19 reshaped the grieving process at Black-owned funeral homes in New Orleans.
Decay, Trump, Unfit
Metaphor of the Man: Trump’s 757 Sits Idle on Tarmac, Rusting Away
by JOHN ADAMS •
Coronavirus, Culture, Education, Science/Nature
On COVID-19 Skeptics
by JOHN ADAMS •
It was likely, as it was a century ago during a prior pandemic, that significant numbers of Americans would argue falsely there was no pandemic (‘just like the regular flu’), that if it were a pandemic it would go away (‘like a miracle’), that anyone talking about illness was merely fearful (as though discussions of injuries were other than rational assessments), that all that mattered was outlook (as though ‘hope over fear’ was anything more other a platitude), or that in fact science itself somehow supported their views.
Simply listing tables of statistics – that were often mortuary lists, truly – was never going to satisfy those who sought to rationalize mightily a national tragedy. It was naive to the point of foolishness to assume one could reason with those in the grip of motivated reasoning. Those on the other side (mostly Trumpists, but some others, too) were – of course – going to claim that they had science on their side. They could convince themselves of this, if no one else, because they conflated collections of data, or even a single datum, with science as a method by which data are synthesized and analyzed.
These skeptics are not less intelligent, but they are less reasonable for their unacknowledged, partial, and biased approaches.
Note well: (1) To avoid incomplete assessments, one should wait to assess local institutional performance until the pandemic passes, (2) one should not make the mistake of pretending that the skeptics’ views are as legitimate as serious professional analyses, and (3) devoting time to every skeptic or Trumpist’s view is a waste of time as against a focus on political leaders (even down to the local level) espousing such views.
Rebecca Onion writes of these skeptical deficiencies in COVID Skeptics Don’t Just Need More Critical Thinking (‘Without a shared approach to scientific expertise, “trusting the data” won’t lead us to the same conclusions’). Onion’s whole essay is worth reading, as she interviews Crystal Lee (a leader of the group of researchers and a graduate student in MIT’s Program in Science, Technology, and Society) on how skeptics’ approach is incomplete.
An excerpt:
[RO]: My question is, if they are using these same tools, using the same data sets, and asking the same questions as the scientists who create visualizations for the government, where are the points of departure? Where do the roads diverge in the woods?
[CL]: The biggest point of diversion is the focus on different metrics—on deaths, rather than cases. They focus on a very small slice of the data. And even then, they contest metrics in ways I think are fundamentally misleading. They’ll say, you know, “Houston is reporting a lot of deaths, but the people there are measuring ‘deaths with COVID,’ in addition to ‘deaths by COVID’ ”—that distinction.
[RO]: Yes, that’s a big one—but, of course, we know that many times the person died from a condition caused by COVID, and that’s what’s being reported.
[CL]: Right. And another major thing is people feel that data doesn’t match their lived experience. So we know a lot of health departments now have websites and data portals and such, but especially in smaller communities, the statistics they have are from the state, and there’s some unevenness between the city or town level and then the state. And so the state might be really bad, and the numbers are scary, but the rate might be lower in a specific town. So they’ll say, “Look, we don’t know anybody who has it, and our hospitals are fine.” So there’s a disconnect that is underlying the skepticism that leads them to try to reapproach the data, reanalyze and represent the data in a way that makes more sense to them.