Good morning.

November in Whitewater begins with rain and a high of thirty-nine.  Sunrise is 7:29 AM and sunset 5:46 PM, for 10h 17m 09s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 22.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1863, George Safford Parker, founder of the Parker Pen Company, is born.

Recommended for reading in full:

 Greg Ip writes Trump’s Tax Cut Underdelivers, Which Could Embolden Democrats Who Want It Reversed:

The cornerstone of President Trump’s domestic economic agenda is the tax cut he signed into law in late 2017. It would, he said, lift U.S. sustained annual economic growth to 3%, or even as high as 6%. His advisers said it would boost average household incomes by at least $4,000 a year. His Treasury secretary said it would pay for itself.

Nearly two years later, none of those things have happened, and there is scant sign they will. The U.S. economy did enjoy a burst of 3% annualized growth after the tax cut first took effect at the start of 2018. But it has since slipped. It grew at a 1.9% annual rate in the third quarter. In the past 12 months, the economy grew 2%, about the same as it averaged from 2011 through 2017.

This should not come as a surprise. The administration’s claims rested on the belief that cutting the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35% and allowing companies to immediately write off the cost of new equipment would boost business investment and thus worker productivity and wages. Yet numerous other advanced countries had already cut their corporate rates in the prior two decades without experiencing anywhere near the growth boost the Trump administration promised. Many experienced no boost at all.

….

Macroeconomic Advisers, a private forecasting firm, compared what it thought in 2017 the economy would do without a tax cut to what actually happened through the second quarter. Business investment on buildings and other structures significantly underperformed the projections while investment in intellectual property outperformed. This was despite the tax law treating structures most favorably and intellectual property least. “The patterns of investment growth were inconsistent with changes in investment incentives” in the tax law, Jane Gravelle, a tax expert at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, told Congress in July.

(Emphasis added. The tax bill was discernibly bad to anyone not drunk, comatose, or deluded.)

  Reis Thebault reports Trump is changing his residence from NYC to Florida. ‘Good riddance,’ New Yorkers say:

As news of the change spread, some of those city and state leaders, all Democrats, endorsed Trump’s decision.

“Good riddance,” Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo tweeted. “It’s not like @realDonaldTrump paid taxes here anyway … He’s all yours, Florida.”

Corey Johnson, New York’s city council speaker, agreed: “GOOD RIDDANCE!!,” he bade Trump in a tweet.

“Don’t let the door hit you on the way out or whatever,” quipped Mayor Bill de Blasio.

In the declaration, Trump refers to Trump Tower — his home since the early 1980s, the place where he launched his presidential campaign — in the past tense: “I formerly resided at 721 Fifth Avenue.”

Tonight’s Sky for November 2019:

Good morning.

Halloween in Whitewater will be snowy with a high of thirty-three.  Sunrise is 7:28 AM and sunset 5:48 PM, for 10h 19m 43s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 14.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1940, the Battle of Britain ends in victory over the Luftwaffe.

Recommended for reading in full:

 The AP reports Wisconsin GOP leader Robin Vos says climate change is ‘probably’ real.  Alternative headlines: GOP leader Robin Vos says world probably round, water probably wet, and apple pie might taste good.

Craig Gilbert and Christal Hayes report Ron Johnson says his involvement in Ukraine will not cause him to recuse himself from a Senate impeachment trial:

The senior senator from Wisconsin has taken on a unique role in the impeachment saga, largely because of his own close involvement with Ukraine issues, as chair of the foreign relations subcommittee on Europe and as a member of the Senate’s bipartisan Ukraine Caucus. That placed him in conversations and meetings that are being scrutinized by House investigators. As a senator, he has also looked into unproven claims that Ukraine assisted Democrats in the 2016 election.

House Democrats on the three investigative committees (Oversight, Intelligence and Foreign Affairs) say they are open to hearing from Johnson, though they were cautious about how to request the testimony of a fellow member of Congress.

“Let’s put it this way, it would be nice to have more explanation from and about Ron Johnson’s activities with respect to Ukraine,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., a member of the House Oversight Committee. “What was his role? What did he see as his role? And what did he do? And why did he do it?”

(Accomplices aren’t supposed to be jurors.)

Kate Brannen reports White House Ignored Pentagon Warning on Ukraine Funding:

As the summer wore on, and President Donald Trump would not budge on his decision to withhold almost $400 million in military aid for Ukraine, the Pentagon warned the White House: If its portion of the money wasn’t released quickly, the Defense Department would not be able to spend it before the fiscal year ended on September 30.

The Pentagon even gave the White House a deadline. In late July, as panic spread within the administration over the president’s worrisome decision, the National Security Council led a series of interagency meetings to discuss what to do about the military assistance to Ukraine. At one of these meetings, Defense Department officials told the White House that if the $250 million in security assistance was not released by August 6, it would not be able to spend it all by the end of the fiscal year, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations.

….

And the Pentagon was also clear that providing Ukraine the security assistance was in the national security interests of the United States, on that point Trump’s Cabinet agreed.

 Dominating the $67 Billion Art World:

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of forty.  Sunrise is 7:27 AM and sunset 5:49 PM, for 10h 22m 18s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 7.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1938, Orson Welles directs and narrates a Mercury Theatre radio production of The War of the Worlds.

Recommended for reading in full:

  David J. Lynch reports In manufacturing Midwest, signs of trouble amid good times:

MANITOWOC, Wis. — Sachin Shivaram, the chief executive of Wisconsin Aluminum Foundry, started to worry this summer when orders for his brake housings and conveyor belt motors first grew scarce. Within weeks, what began as mild concern snowballed into a business drought that has seen bookings plunge by 40 percent.

In August, Shivaram, 38, reluctantly laid off two dozen workers, hoping to recall them when the outlook improved. It hasn’t.

“Things are not good. We didn’t anticipate this level of deterioration,” he said. “Orders are down across the board.”

The sudden slump at this ­110-year-old company illustrates the economic erosion that is challenging President Trump’s signature promise to restore a lost era of American manufacturing greatness.

….

Already, plants in several Midwestern states that will be crucial to the president’s reelection campaign are shedding workers. Manufacturing employment is down by almost 9,000 in Pennsylvania over the past year and 6,800 in Wisconsin. Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota also have lost factory jobs, though in Ohio, assembly lines continue to add them.

The president’s tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union — and those trading partners’ retaliation against the United States — are sapping manufacturers’ strength, economists said. Through August, Wisconsin companies’ exports to China of $822 million were 25 percent less than in the same period in 2018, according to the Census Bureau.

Charles Pierce observes Scott Walker’s Legacy of Getting Played by FoxConn Lives On:

Scott Walker …. has been particularly active both on the electric Twitter machine and in real life. He is running some operation to ensure that gerrymandering stays in place, and he’s also the head of the Young Americans for Freedom, that hoary old relic of the John Birch Society’s heyday. Meanwhile, back in America’s Dairyland, his most conspicuous legacy continues to be the biggest bag of magic beans ever sold to an allegedly sentient politician.

….

Foxconn has been playing Wisconsin like a ten-cent yo-yo ever since Walker showed up at the company’s doorstep with the state’s economy in his mouth, like a beagle who’s brought home a rabbit. Last February, the company floated a story that even the main campus was in doubt, announcing that plans had changed and that a smaller facility might be built. This, as MarketWatch informed us a couple of years ago, is Foxconn’s general M.O.

But the details are important, given Gou’s history of making and breaking promises in numerous countries and regions over the years, including in the U.S. A pledge to invest $30 million in a factory in central Pennsylvania in 2013 was also greeted with much ballyhoo, as reported by the Washington Post.…

 How To Use Apple Pay:

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of forty-one.  Sunrise is 7:26 AM and sunset 5:50 PM, for 10h 24m 54s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 2.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1929, America experiences a devastating Wall Street crash.

Recommended for reading in full:

  John Hudson, Karoun Demirjian, and Mike DeBonis report House to take first vote on impeachment inquiry of Trump, forcing lawmakers on record:

The House will take its first vote on the impeachment inquiry of President Trump on Thursday, forcing lawmakers to go on record in support or opposition of the investigation and dictating the rules for its next phase.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Monday that the vote would “affirm” the existing probe, now in its sixth week, and establish which hearings would be open and how the transcripts from witnesses who have already testified in closed sessions would be released. Pelosi said the vote also would grant due process to the president and his attorney, countering a repeated criticism by Trump that he has been treated unfairly.

“We are taking this step to eliminate any doubt as to whether the Trump administration may withhold documents, prevent witness testimony, disregard duly authorized subpoenas, or continue obstructing the House of Representatives,” Pelosi said in a letter to Democrats. “Nobody is above the law.”

Nuria Marquez Matrtinez reports ICE Is Rushing to Open For-Profit Detention Centers—Right Before California’s Ban Goes Into Effect:

Five days after California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a strict ban on for-profit prisons and immigrant detention centers, Immigration and Customs Enforcement quietly posted a solicitation notice for three new detention facilities in California—a move that advocates are calling a discreet attempt to open up new privately run facilities before the law goes into effect at the start of next year.

ICE is asking for “turnkey ready” facilities near San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles for “the exclusive use of ICE and the ICE detainee population,” according to documents posted on the Federal Business Opportunities (FBO) website on October 16. (When ICE seeks a new contract, the search has to go through a public bidding process.) The facilities would be used to “provide housing, medical care, transportation, guard services, meals, and the day to day needs for ICE detainees,” the documents say. As the Palm Springs Desert Sun first reported, ICE is looking to house up to 6,750 detainees in the facilities.

….

State legislator Rob Bonta, a Bay Area Democrat who wrote the original bill, said ICE is trying to exploit that loophole. “Everything about this is gaming the system,” he said. If ICE rushes to sign a contract before January 1, Bonta noted, the new facility would operate for at least five years. And even though the new law explicitly prevents any contract renewals, the FBO notice states that the contracts have two five-year extension options.

 Quantum supremacy: A three minute guide:

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of forty-five.  Sunrise is 7:24 AM and sunset 5:52 PM, for 10h 27m 33s of daytime.  The moon is new with 0.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Urban Forestry Commission meets at 4:30 PM, and the Whitewater Unified School District’s board meets at 6:30 PM in closed session, with an open session beginning at 7 PM. 

On this day in 1886, Pres. Cleveland presides over the dedication of the Statue of Liberty.

Recommended for reading in full:

Nicholas Fandos and Michael S. Schmidt report Moving Closer to Trump, Impeachment Inquiry Faces Critical Test:

House impeachment investigators are speeding toward new White House barriers meant to block crucial testimony and evidence from the people who are closest to President Trump — obstacles that could soon test the limits of Democrats’ fact finding a month into their inquiry.

What has been a rapidly moving investigation securing damning testimony from witnesses who have defied White House orders may soon become a more arduous effort. Investigators are now trying to secure cooperation from higher-ranking advisers who can offer more direct accounts of Mr. Trump’s actions but are also more easily shielded from Congress.

Democrats are likely to face the first such roadblock on Monday, when one of Mr. Trump’s closest advisers is expected to defy a subpoena as he awaits a federal court to determine whether he can speak with impeachment investigators. But others could soon follow, legal experts and lawmakers say, forcing Democratic leaders toward a consequential choice: Try to force cooperation through the courts or move on to begin making an argument for impeachment in public.

Craig Gilbert observes The white blue-collar vote is seen as Trump’s base in Wisconsin. But it’s actually divided into multiple parts:

“Blue-collar white” has become shorthand for the Trump vote.

But as voluminous polling on Trump in Wisconsin makes clear, white blue-collar voters are far from a uniform bloc.

While they were the primary force behind Trump’s 2016 victory in this state, they have been very divided over his performance in office.

Since he entered the White House, Trump’s approval rating with blue-collar whites of all ages in Wisconsin is only slightly more positive than negative: 50% approve, 45% disapprove, combining more than three years of surveys by the Marquette University Law School. That is a little worse than Trump’s numbers with this same demographic group in national polls.

The Marquette polling shows Trump’s standing among non-college whites varies dramatically by gender, age, marital status and religion – many of the chief dividing lines in modern politics.

In fact, Trump’s true demographic base in Wisconsin is not blue-collar white voters collectively, but blue-collar white men, and — above all — blue-collar white evangelicals, who support him overwhelmingly.

Among many other segments of the blue-collar white vote, opinions of the Trump presidency are either evenly divided (as they are among married women and mainline Protestants), or negative (as they are among unmarried women and non-religious voters).

Politics of Pot: The new marijuana law in Illinois:

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of fifty-seven.  Sunrise is 7:23 AM and sunset 5:53 PM, for 10h 30m 11s of daytime.  The moon is new with 0.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1961, America successfully tests the first Saturn rocket, the Saturn I SA-1:

Recommended for reading in full:

Isabel V. Sawhill and Christopher Pulliam write Amend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for more inclusive growth and better jobs:

The centerpiece of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [Trump tax bill] was cutting the corporate rate from 35 to 21 percent. Supporters argued that this would make the United States a more competitive place for business, leading to more economic growth and higher wages. So far, there is little evidence that the law has had such effects.

….

A profit-sharing tax credit could be implemented by reforming Section 162(m) of the internal revenue code. Before TCJA, 162(m) allowed the deductibility of executive pay above $1 million only if it was performance-based. After TCJA, all executive pay above $1 million is nondeductible (although it is now subject to the lower corporate rate of 21 percent). This provision could be further amended to provide a partial credit based on the portion of profits companies share with all employees up to some salary or compensation cap. Effectively, this would levy corporate or business taxes on the share of profits retained by shareholders and owners, encouraging more companies to treat their workers as part of the team that produced the profits in the first place. Such a credit could be paid for by raising the corporate rate back to some more reasonable level, such as 25 percent.

….

One important reason to engage businesses in achieving more inclusive growth is the unpopularity of the hefty taxes and transfers needed to achieve the goal without a shift in market incomes. A second reason is that receiving a larger paycheck, rather than a government benefit, contributes to a sense of self-respect and dignity tied to the value of work. To substantially reduce inequality without breaking the bank, we need to raise market incomes for those feeling left behind. To be clear, none of this is an argument for not redistributing in response to unparalleled inequality; it is an argument for not relying solely on redistribution to produce more inclusive growth.

More broadly shared growth may be essential to our democracy’s health. The public is feeling increasingly alienated with how the economy is now working; fewer than half of young adults have a positive view of capitalism. At a time when even American business calls for an update to capitalism, maybe our business tax code could use one too. Let’s amend the TCJA in ways consistent with the Business Roundtable’s new emphasis on stakeholder, as opposed to shareholder, capitalism. Will it work? There are no guarantees. But the alternative might be the end of capitalism and democracy as we have known them.

On Witch Watch at Castle Halloween Museum: