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Daily Bread for 7.10.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Sunday in town will be sunny with a high of eighty-four. Sunrise is 5:27 AM and sunset 8:33 PM, for 15h 06m 40s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 35.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

Friday’s FW poll asked what readers thought of a kale-eating contest, substituting kale for a more conventional contest food. Most respondents, 68.19%, voted yes to a contest with kale.

7.10.1940 sees the beginning of the Battle of Britain:

The Battle of Britain (German: die Luftschlacht um England, literally “Air battle for England”) was a combat of the Second World War, when the Royal Air Force (“RAF”) defended the United Kingdom (“UK”) against the German Air Force (Luftwaffe) attacks from the end of June 1940, and described as the first major campaign fought entirely by air forces.[14] The British officially recognise its duration as from 10 July until 31 October 1940 that overlaps with the period of large-scale night attacks known as the Blitz,[15] while German historians do not accept this subdivision and regard it as a campaign lasting from July 1940 to June 1941.[16]

….By preventing the Luftwaffe’s air superiority over UK, the British forced Adolf Hitler to postpone and eventually cancel Operation Sea Lion, a provisionally proposed amphibious and airborne invasion of Britain. However, Nazi Germany continued bombing operations on Britain, known as the Blitz. The failure to destroy Britain’s air defencesto force an armistice (or even surrender outright) is considered by Steven Bungay to be the Nazi’s first major defeat in World War II, and a crucial turning point in the conflict.[19]

On this day in 1832, Gen. Atkinson’s soldiers begin building a fort:

1832 – Fort Koshkonong Construction Begins

On this date General Henry Atkinson and his troops built Fort Koshkonong after being forced backwards from the bog area of the “trembling lands” in their pursuit of Black Hawk. The Fort, later known as Fort Atkinson, was described by Atkinson as “a stockade work flanked by four block houses for the security of our supplies and the accommodation of the sick.” It was also on this date that Atkinson discharged a large number of Volunteers from his army in order to decrease stress on a dwindling food supply and to make his force less cumbersome. One of the dismissed volunteers was future president, Abraham Lincoln, whose horse was stolen in Cold Spring, Wisconsin, and was forced to return to New Salem, Illinois by foot and canoe. [Sources: History Just Ahead: A Guide to Wisconsin’s Historical Markers edited by Sarah Davis McBride and Along the Black Hawk Trail by Willilam F. Stark]

 

Johnson-Weld 2016

Occasionally, someone will ask me how I’ll be voting this fall. I’m a libertarian, from an old libertarian family, and it’s an easy choice for me: Johnson-Weld 2016.

Here’s a video in which Gov. Johnson and Gov. Weld introduce themselves. They offer America a principled alternative, and would assure us a government, among other things, without private email servers or (worse) a repulsive wall-builder. Govs. Johnson & Weld would be a good choice in any season; they’re an excellent choice this year.

Daily Bread for 7.9.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Saturday in town will be mostly sunny with a high of eighty. Sunrise is 5:26 AM and sunset is 8:34 PM, for 15h 07m 56s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 26.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

Live performance, March 1963.
On this day in 1962, Bob Dylan records Blowin’ in the Wind:

Dylan recorded “Blowin’ in the Wind” on July 9, 1962, for inclusion on his second album, The Freewheelin’ Bob Dylan, released in May 1963.

In his sleeve notes for The Bootleg Series Volumes 1–3 (Rare & Unreleased) 1961–1991, John Bauldie wrote that Pete Seeger first identified the melody of “Blowin’ in the Wind” as an adaptation of the old African-American spiritual “No More Auction Block“. According to Alan Lomax‘s The Folk Songs of North America, the song originated in Canada and was sung by former slaves who fled there after Britain abolished slavery in 1833. In 1978, Dylan acknowledged the source when he told journalist Marc Rowland: “‘Blowin’ in the Wind’ has always been a spiritual. I took it off a song called ‘No More Auction Block’ – that’s a spiritual and ‘Blowin’ in the Wind’ follows the same feeling.”[7] Dylan’s performance of “No More Auction Block” was recorded at the Gaslight Cafe in October 1962, and appeared on The Bootleg Series Volumes 1–3 (Rare & Unreleased) 1961–1991.

The critic Michael Gray suggested that the lyric is an example of Dylan’s incorporation of Biblical rhetoric into his own style. A particular rhetorical form deployed time and again in the New Testament and based on a text from the Old Testament book of Ezekiel (12:1–2) is: “The word of the Lord came to me: ‘Oh mortal, you dwell among the rebellious breed. They have eyes to see but see not; ears to hear, but hear not.” In “Blowin’ in the Wind”, Dylan transforms this into “Yes’n’ how many ears must one man have …?” and “Yes’ n’ how many times must a man turn his head / Pretending he just doesn’t see?”[8]

“Blowin’ in the Wind” has been described as an anthem of the 1960s civil rights movement.[9] In Martin Scorsese‘s documentary on Dylan, No Direction Home, Mavis Staples expressed her astonishment on first hearing the song and said she could not understand how a young white man could write something which captured the frustration and aspirations of black people so powerfully.

Sam Cooke was also deeply impressed by the song and began to perform it in his live act. A version was included on Cooke’s 1964 album Live At the Copacabana. He later wrote the response “A Change Is Gonna Come“, which he recorded on January 24, 1964.[10]

On this day in 1755, Gen. Braddock encounters an ambush:

1755 – Charles de Langlade Ambushes British

On this date Frenchman Charles de Langlade led a group of Wisconsin Native Americans (including Ottawas and Ojibways) against the British General Braddock during the French and Indian War. Langlade, acting as “commander” of the Northwestern Indians, ambushed the British troops. The battle is depicted in the oil painting by Edward W. Deming which hangs on the 4th floor of the Wisconsin Historical Society. [Source: Badger Saints and Sinners by Fred L. Holmes, 1939; pg 25]

About a Survey 

I promised last week that I would write about a recent survey that seemed to rely on a skewed, unrepresentative sample. The survey and some printed accounts of it have been available, but the recording of the 6.6.16 meeting at which the results were initially presented does not seem to be available online for readers. 

I’ll say now that the conclusions of the survey seem to be right (that a school referendum would likely pass) but that the sample the survey uses to reach that conclusion is strangely unrepresentative of the community it purports to describe. That matters because the right conclusion with the wrong data is little more than guesswork.  Surveys are not meant to be paid guesswork.

It also matters because although the primary conclusion may be right despite a weak sampling of the community, other inferences drawn from the survey may not be similarly accurate. 

Looking at actual election data, actual demographic data, and past referendum results will produce a better assessment than relying on the recent community survey’s data sample.  

It seems fair to the survey authors (an outside vendor), however, to include for readers their full, 6.6.16 meeting remarks.  If they’re published online soon I’ll include them when publishing my assessment; if they’re not available I’ll go ahead with the post with the published information that is available.

(News accounts of the survey only reveal that those accounts’ authors either don’t understand or don’t care how unrepresentative the survey sample is of the electorate that would be considering a referendum, or even the community as it is now.)

It’s worth coming to the right conclusion with the right data; anything less is less than this community deserves. 

More to come.

Friday Poll: Kale-Eating Contest


Perhaps sensing that conventional food-eating contests (involving hot dogs or other picnic foods) are losing popular support, contest organizers in Buffalo have decided to have a kale-eating contest, billing it as the “world’s healthiest eating championship,” with the slogan, “Kale Yeah!”


What do you think?

Daily Bread for 7.8.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Friday in town will be mostly sunny with a high of eighty-four. Sunrise is 5:25 AM and sunset 8:34 PM, for 15h 09m 09s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 17.9% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1776, John Nixon makes a public address:

On July 8, 1776, he made the first public proclamation of the Declaration of Independence from the steps of the Pennsylvania State House. The same year, Nixon was promoted colonel and later served under George Washington at the Battle of Princeton. In 1776, he became a member of the Navy Board, and two years later was with Washington again at Valley Forge.

On this day in 1850, a man declares himself a king:

1850 – James Jesse Strang Crowned King

On this date James Jesse Strang, leader of the estranged Mormon faction, the Strangites, was crowned king; the only man to achieve such a title in America. When founder Joseph Smith was assassinated, Strang forged a letter from Smith dictating he was to be the heir. The Mormon movement split into followers of Strang and followers of Brigham Young. As he gained more followers (but never nearly as many as Brigham Young), Strang became comparable to a Saint, and in 1850 was crowned King James in a ceremony in which he wore a discarded red robe of a Shakespearean actor, and a metal crown studded with a cluster of stars as his followers sang him hosannas.

Soon after his crowning, he announced that Mormonism embraced and supported polygamy. (Young’s faction was known to have practiced polygamy, but had not at this time announced it publicly.)

A number of followers lived in Walworth County, including Strang at a home in Burlington. In 1856 Strang was himself assassinated, leaving five wives. Without Strang’s leadership, his movement disintegrated. [Source: Wisconsin Saints and Sinners, by Fred L. Holmes, p. 106-121]

A Google a Day asks a history question: “What war was ended by the treaty that was ratified by the U.S. Senate on February 6, 1899?”

The Other Problem with Bad Data 

Surveys, polls, and studies by their nature typically rely on the measurement of something.  (They’re not poetry; they’re not song.)  The accuracy of that measurement should matter, both to those collecting it and those receiving it.

It should matter in-and-of itself, and for its consequences. 

Many communities, including Whitewater, have had a data problem: a problem with the accurate measurement of the matter under consideration.  This problem expresses itself in more than one way: unintentional but inaccurate measurement and presentation, or intentional, selective, inaccurate measurement and presentation.  Many communities face these problems, to one level or another.

There’s another consequence of data problems, however, that develops over time: consistent, over-optimistic measurement and presentation raises expectations unrealistically, unjustifiably.

The consequence of this is that when something goes obviously and undeniably wrong, it leads not to equanimity, but to surprise, confusion, and frustration for an urgent (sometimes impossibly urgent) resolution. 

Years of describing and seeing the community in shades of pink only makes dark colors, when finally noticed, look darker than they truly are.

Daily Bread for 7.7.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Thursday in town will be cloudy, with a daytime high of eighty-seven, and an even chance of afternoon thundershowers. Sunrise is 5:24 AM and sunset 8:35 PM, for 15h 10m 18s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 10.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission is scheduled to meet at 6 PM, and there is a Whitewater Fire Department Meeting at 6 PM.

On this day in 1930, construction of the Hoover Dam begins:

Over the next five years, a total of 21,000 men would work ceaselessly to produce what would be the largest dam of its time, as well as one of the largest manmade structures in the world.

Although the dam would take only five years to build, its construction was nearly 30 years in the making. Arthur Powell Davis, an engineer from the Bureau of Reclamation, originally had his vision for the Hoover Dam back in 1902, and his engineering report on the topic became the guiding document when plans were finally made to begin the dam in 1922….

Even with Hoover’s exuberant backing and a regional consensus around the need to build the dam, Congressional approval and individual state cooperation were slow in coming. For many years, water rights had been a source of contention among the western states that had claims on the Colorado River. To address this issue, Hoover negotiated the Colorado River Compact, which broke the river basin into two regions with the water divided between them. Hoover then had to introduce and re-introduce the bill to build the dam several times over the next few years before the House and Senate finally approved the bill in 1928.

In 1929, Hoover, now president, signed the Colorado River Compact into law, claiming it was “the most extensive action ever taken by a group of states under the provisions of the Constitution permitting compacts between states.”

Once preparations were made, the Hoover Dam’s construction sprinted forward: The contractors finished their work two years ahead of schedule and millions of dollars under budget. Today, the Hoover Dam is the second highest dam in the country and the 18th highest in the world. It generates enough energy each year to serve over a million people…

On this day in 1832, future presidents make camp near Palmyra:

On this date during the Black Hawk War, General Atkinson led his entire militia, which included future presidents Abraham Lincoln and Zachary Taylor, to a camp just south of Palmyra. [Source: History Just Ahead: A Guide to Wisconsin’s Historical Markers, edited by Sarah Davis McBride]

A Google a Day asks a business question: “Because the company increased shareholder dividends for 25 years in a row, what S&P designation was granted the world’s largest distributor of toys?”

The Masking Effect of Act 10 

We’ve had Act 10 for several years now, and during that time in no sector has that law been more discussed or felt than in K12 public education. Whitewater has avoided some of the Act 10 strife that has gripped other parts of the state, and that’s been to our advantage, whatever one thinks of the provision. 

(I am opposed to Act 10 on traditional libertarian grounds: any person in any occupation should be free to associate with others and bargain against, and in opposition to, the government. Those who hold office locally or statewide have too much authority as it is; they don’t need more tools, but rather deserve fewer.)

Yet whatever one thinks of the direct consequences of Act 10, it’s had a second, masking effect: all the attention to decisions involving resources has almost certainly obscured the sound of other decisions unrelated to fiscal policy.

(I’m not describing choices not made for lack of money, but choices made yet not heard for all the attention Act 10 has received.)

As we drift farther from Act 10’s beginning, and that law is either attenuated or people become inured to discussion of it, attention is likely to shift to policies over these last several years of which we’ve heard less. Act 10 has masked the sound of these other policies, but it’s a masking effect that will not endure: other subjects will come to residents’ hearing, no matter how loud Act 10 has been.