In January, looking ahead to Wisconsin’s big political year, I thought that Gov. Walker would be recalled in June, and Gov. Romney would win both Wisconsin and the presidency in November. The first prediction was well off-the-mark. (Gov. Walker actually did better in 2012 than he did in 2010.)
The November contest is yet ahead, leaving two of those three predictions still to be assessed. All three, though, were based on the same theory: that a moderate-conservative candidate would do better than a thoroughly conservative candidate in Wisconsin. Of course, Walker might have done even better as a moderate-conservative (rather than a thorough-going conservative), but he did well enough that it’s quibbling to speculate.
The theory may yet hold, however, if Gov. Romney’s delivery in last night’s presidential debate is how he presents himself over the next month. Romney does a poor impression of a die-hard conservative, and when he tries to speak like one, he’s off-putting. (See, Does Mitt Romney Really Want to be President of the United States?, a post describing the trouble that Romney causes himself when he describes America as divided between makers and takers.)
When Romney talks like this, the one thing that he makes is it harder for himself to win.
At the very least, when Romney sounds like he did in his first presidential debate, he improves his chances, assuring a closer race.
That matters nationally, but also in battlegrounds like Wisconsin. The current state of the Wisconsin race favors Obama, and consequently down-ballot Democrats. These local Democrats need all the help the can get when running after re-districting. By contrast, if the presidential race draws closer here, it’s sure to benefit down-ballot Republicans.
Romney doesn’t need to win Wisconsin to help WISGOP candidates, but he needs to bring the race closer than it is now.
He’ll only be able to bring the race closer if he presents himself each remaining day as he did in last night’s debate.
There’s a new Marquette Law School Poll today, that shows a continuing double-digit lead for Obama over Romney, but a closer US Senate race between Baldwin and Thompson.
1. Obama still leads by eleven, on this poll, despite Ryan’s spot on the GOP ticket. That’s not a competitive race.
2. Although Baldwin now leads by less than in the previous Marquette Poll (where she led by 9, 50-41), there are few Wisconsinites who thought she was ever truly ahead of Thompson by that much. This current poll is probably a better measure of where the race is, and where it has been (based on other polls).
The story will be that Thompson’s closer now, but the truth is that pollster Charles Franklin’s latest effort for Marquette is simply closer to others’ polls.
3. Neither Republican is out of the low to mid-forties. That’s especially telling in former Gov. Thompson’s case, despite a long tenure as a popular governor. That native Wisconsinite Thompson and native Wisconsinite Ryan (as the second half of a team) are polling below the high forties is telling. They should both be doing better.
They may yet win, of course, but the GOP is behind the Democrats in both races, despite native sons on the Republican ticket.
That’s the current state of these Wisconsin contests.
Tuesday saw a common council session in Whitewater, with topics including recognition of private accomplishments, citizen comments on housing, a municipal budget update, snow removal, council’s approval of the terms for Whitewater’s new City Manager, Cameron Clapper, and discussion of the job posting for a new Director of Public Works.
A few remarks on meeting highlights follow —
Charitable, private accomplishments. Council issued two proclamations, one designating Sunday, October 7th in honor of our local Crop Walk, and a second designating Sunday, November 18th in honor of the Fairhaven Retirement Community’s fiftieth anniversary.
These proclamations came early in the session, and that seems right: among the best work of government is the acknowledgment of private accomplishment. The Crop Walk (beginning at Fairhaven) will raise money to feed hundreds locally and elsewhere. It’s an unalloyed good.
That Fairhaven has endured — and expanded — over fifty years is no small achievement. Our conditions are so very different from 1962, and Fairhaven would not have managed those many years had it not adapted to new conditions, to new expectations.
There’s reason to be proud of the generosity and hard work behind the subjects of each proclamation.
Budget Update. Cameron Clapper (at the time Interim City Manager, by the end of the meeting City Manager) offered updates on the budget process and three topics of interest.
The city administration will offer its budget to the Common Council on 10.9.12, place it online, and then begin presentation of it at the Council session on 10.16.12. Elected representatives and residents will thus be able to think about the budget before the next council session. City Manager Clapper gave notice of three areas of the budget for particular consideration: the city’s public contribution toward the ‘Innovation Express’ (Generac’s bus), municipal funding for Downtown Whitewater, and municipal funding to combat the emerald ash borer (now encroaching upon the city).
There’s time to consider these requests, and the rest of the budget, after it’s publicly available.
There may be more than one budgetary option; it’s encouraging that these options will be balanced.
Citizen Comments on Rental Property in the City. All these years, but still we’ve seen scant progress on controversies over rental houising in the city. We’ve a chance, if only we’d try, for a general resolution of these ceaseless kerfuffles. Is there anyone in the city who wants to keep arguing about this, after so many years have been wasted?
I could battle for my way of thinking for a dozen more years, others could do the same in opposition to that way of thinking, but where will we be? Only where we have been these last several years.
If we could capitalize on changes in personnel, combine it with a more modern outlook, and zoning re-write reform, perhaps we could get past these continuous, contentious debates.
That’s a subject for longer discussion. The motivation for that discussion should be clear enough: we should, and I think can, compromise well enough to put this issue mostly behind us.
Snow Removal. Snow on city sidewalks must now be removed by 8 PM on the evening after it stops falling. Council approved a more reasonable rule — requiring a 24-hour snow removal deadline. The old requirement was a stupid one, contrary to that of other communities’ policies, penalizing late-shift workers, and requiring much more of residents than of the city government.
A New Director of Public Works. One might set the requirements for this job however one wishes, so long as one achieves these two tasks: that projects come in on time, and on (or under) budget. It’s practical accomplishment that matters, from a new leader residing within the city.
A New City Manager. Returning from closed session, Whitewater formally approved a contract with Cameron Clapper as her new city manager. The recruiting process leading to his selection was open, thorough, professional, and smooth. Two attributes matter most: the standards & principles by which one manages, and a temperament that fosters harmony within the municipal administration and inclusion within the city.
It’s not compensation, but guiding principles and equal-treatment of all residents, that’s important. Residents may differ over particular views to no matter: it’s a substantive foundation and fairness toward all that carries the day.
Quite a few have written, asking my opinion of Whitewater’s choice. I’ll answer here as I have privately: I believe it’s a sound choice, and I wish City Manager Clapper the best for his administration.
One may be confident that all the city feels this way.
It’s a partly sunny Wednesday, with a high of seventy, in store for Whitewater.
On this day in 1990, East and West Germany ended forty-five years of division, becoming one, re-unified country:
Then the President, Richard von Weizsacker, drawing on the words of the West German Constitution, proclaimed from the steps of the Reichstag: ”In free self-determination, we want to achieve the unity in freedom of Germany. We are aware of our responsibility for these tasks before God and the people. We want to serve peace in the world in a united Europe.”
If you’ve ever wondered what an astronaut sees at night, here’s a scenic answer:
Google’s daily puzzle asks about a drink, a place, and a language: “You just popped open a bottle of champagne in the country that’s the leading producer of cork. How do you say “happy birthday” like a native?”
We’ve a competitive U.S. Senate race here in Wisconsin, between former Gov. Tommy Thompson and incumbent Rep. Tammy Baldwin. Recent polls show a Baldwin lead, but everyone in the state sees that this will be a close election on Nov. 6th.
Here’s an assessment of this first debate, on overall impression, format, style, and substance. (The debate begins @ 3:55 on the video, after a dull, seemingly endless introduction from the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association.)
Overall impression.
Both of these candidates want to convey the same idea, to a (likely) small number of impressionable voters: that they care about the middle class. Baldwin does this directly, by saying that she does care about them, but that Thompson does not. Thompson, by contrast, does this indirectly, by reminding that he was re-elected many times during which he reduced taxes and boosted employment.
Neither candidate makes a terrible mistake; neither candidate wins a triumph. It’s unlikely that this debate changed anyone’s mind, but it does give voters an impression: Thompson’s irritated. That impression will be effective if voters recall Thompson’s career favorably, with nostalgia. If they feel he has reason to be irritated, then he gains. If not, then in this debate he’s lost nothing, but gained nothing, either.
Tomorrow’s 10.3.12 Marquette Poll may show a closer race, but I doubt that this debate will be the reason.
The state of the race: while Wisconsin twice voted for Scott Walker within two years’ time, the second time by a larger margin than the first, former Gov. Thompson trails Rep. Baldwin.
That Baldwin’s doing as well as she is represents a true problem for Thompson. This debate didn’t change that.
Format.
It’s two candidates, three panelists, and a moderator, with the worst debate stage in all America. It looks like something from a high-school election: big wooden desks, heavy curtains and banners behind them, candidates seated apart from each other, with a moderator between debaters and panelists. Wisconsinites are a plain-spun people, but this stage isn’t plain – it’s stodgy. The desks look like something rummaged from a yard sale. The floor is a studio’s gray linoleum, reminding everyone that it’s a makeshift studio rather than a proper auditorium.
Style.
Baldwin’s dressed conservatively, speaking steadily but without much inflection, and directly into the camera. Her voice has grown more mature over her political career; she once had a discernibly higher pitch. The change has been good for her, and is typical of someone her age (she’s fifty). She’s not a strong speaker, occasionally glancing at her notes, but she’s able to convey emphasis well-enough.
Baldwin does this in two ways: she speaks directly into the camera, and she’s soft-spoken enough that one is almost pulled in, drawn to hear her complete each sentence. If this were an outdoor debate, she’d been at a great disadvantage; on the cooler medium of television, her understated manner of speaking presents no similar problem.
Being seated helps, too: one expects more force from a speaker who’s standing than from one who’s seated. A seated position calls for reduced energy, and a more measured style of speaking.
Thompson’s GOP rivals in the primary questioned his energy and commitment to the race, but he’s easily energetic enough in this debate. Now aged seventy, he’s let his hair go gray, and he looks better now than he did a year ago. He’s a more conversational speaker than Baldwin, and doesn’t need to glance down at notes while he’s speaking.
Thompson speaks assertively (almost angrily) in this debate, and I’d guess it’s by design. He’s down in the polls (at least by a few points), is older, and wants to show fire, vitality. A feistier presentation must have been a campaign tactic.
It’s not a good fit for Thompson, though, and not a good fit in this format. As for the format, being seated makes an angry mien harder to pull off. It would be much better outdoors, and a bit better standing up. He touts his policy successes as governor, but he does so in an edgy way. I don’t know why: he could make up any ground with a subtler, smoother approach.
Thompson doesn’t look at the camera, but rather the panelists, a contrast with Baldwin’s approach. Since he takes a more assertive, almost dismissive tone, he’s better off looking away; as Baldwin takes a less assertive one, she’s better off looking at the camera.
Neither of these candidates speaks of the other except as ‘my opponent.’ (I counted only one exception.) It’s a sign of the coldness between the two, but also their insecurities as candidates. It’s embarrassing that they won’t use their names or titles. Like the cheesy setting, there’s a second-tier approach in one calling the other ‘my opponent.’ All Wisconsin knows that she’s Rep. Tammy Baldwin and that he’s former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin & Thompson might as well use the same titles that everyone else does.
Substance.
If substance seems so brief, it’s because this was a debate of briefly stated positions. Although both candidates have held office for years, neither showed more than summary of their respective views. One would not easily guess that one was a longstanding legislator, the other a longstanding governor.
Baldwin would extend some existing (Bush Admin) tax cuts, but not all of them; Thompson would preserve them all.
Baldwin would make cuts in military spending and corporate welfare; Thompson favors wider and more comprehensive cuts, mentioning an across-the-board 5% cut.
Thompson touts his prior accomplishments like BadgerCare, and rejects Baldwin’s support for a single-payer solution. Thompson opposes ObamaCare (the Affordable Care Act); Baldwin supports it, and criticizes only a portion of existing health care law that she says benefits drug companies against consumers.
Thompson supports a harder line against Iran, but then no one is favorable to that dictatorship. Baldwin cites her support for Pres. Obama’s approach. Baldwin wants out of Afghanistan; Thompson questions our present policy as tepid and indecisive.
These a battle here over who’s the bigger spender, with Baldwin parrying attacks on her spending record with charges of insiders’ deals and corporate welfare. How undecided voters see these two tacks will determine the race: Thompson’s insistence that she’s an unreconstructed liberal, and Baldwin’s insistence that he’s a deal-making insider.
The Whitewater-Area League of Women Voters’ October 2012 Newsletter has arrived, featuring articles and a calendar of upcoming events.
This latest edition is available as a link on my blogroll, and is embedded below.
Upcoming events:
Date: October 13th (Saturday)
Event: LWVWI Issues Briefing
Where: Crown Plaza Hotel, Madison
Date: October 18th (Thursday)
Event: Public Program, Mike McCabe of Wisconsin Democracy Campaign, Money in Politics
Where: 7 PM, Timmerman Auditorium, Hyland Hall, UWW Campus
Fairhaven Lecture Series:
Mondays at 3 PM, Fellowship Hall, Fairhaven Retirement Center
Oct. 8 Money Talks: Citizens United and its impact on US elections
Jolly Emrey, Assoc. Professor, Economics
Oct. 15 Perspectives from Germany on the US election
Carol Scovotti, Assoc. Professor, Marketing
Oct. 22 Economists reflect on this election season
Jeffery Heinrich, Assoc. Professor, Economics
Stuart Glosser, Professor, Economics
Russell Kashian, Professor Economics
Oct. 29 The 2012 convention speeches compared Corey Davis, Assist. Professor, Communications
State Assembly District 43 Candidate Forum:
October 30th 7:30-9PM Timmerman Auditorium, Hyland Hall, UWW Campus
The League, in partnership with the Whitewater Student Government (WSG), is co-sponsoring a candidate forum for State Assembly District 43 candidates Evan Wynn and Andy Jorgensen on October 30th, 7:30-9PM, in Timmerman Auditorium, Hyland Hall.
Today’s forecast calls for a mostly sunny day, with a high of sixty-eight.
Whitewater’s Common Council meets tonight at 6:30 PM.
On this day in 1919, Pres. Wilson suffered a stroke that significantly reduced his ability to govern (although he remained in office until 1921):
On October 2, 1919, at the White House in Washington, D.C., United StatesPresident Woodrow Wilson suffers a massive stroke that leaves him partially paralyzed on his left side and effectively ends his presidential career….On September 25, he collapsed after delivering a speech in Pueblo,Colorado, and subsequently returned to Washington, where a massive cerebral hemorrhage on October 2 nearly killed him.
Even while incapacitated, however, Wilson continued to influence proceedings regarding the Versailles Treaty. After a long and bitter struggle, the Senate voted on Lodge’s motion to ratify the treaty—but only with a number of amendments attached—on March 19, 1920. Thanks to the senators loyal to Wilson—who remained steadfastly unwilling to accept ratification of any compromised version of the treaty—and those who opposed the treaty in any form, the ratification resolution failed to obtain the necessary two-thirds majority, and the Senate consequently refused to ratify the Treaty of Versailles.
Google’s daily puzzle asks about kings and creatures: “The Spanish king who faced the Jersey Devil abdicated and fled to America following which battle?”
Reason offers us a different kind of Nanny of the Month this month, where we get to pick the winner. At the end of the video, you can click the screen to select either Pres. Obama or Gov. Romney as your pick.
So will you vote for the the pro-drug war, pro-smoking ban, pro-health insurance mandate, pro-Patriot Act candidate who supports cracking down on medical marijuana and online poker? Or maybe you’ll pull the lever (well, click the screen) for the pro-drug war, pro-smoking ban, pro-health insurance mandate, pro-Patriot Act candidate who supports cracking down on medical marijuana and online poker.
Either way freedom loses. But hey, that’s democracy!
Doesn’t matter if you’re under 18, a convicted felon, illegal immigrant or even foreigner who’s never set foot in America–as long as you can click a mouse, you can vote (as often as you like!) in Reason TV’s very special Election Edition Nanny of the Month.
A new month begins, and for Whitewater it begins with a partly sunny day, calm winds, and a high of seventy.
The city’s Parks & Recreation Board meets tonight at 5 PM.
On this day in 1890, Congress created Yosemite National Park:
….an act of Congress creates Yosemite National Park, home of such natural wonders as Half Dome and the giant sequoia trees. Environmental trailblazer John Muir (1838-1914) and his colleagues campaigned for the congressional action, which was signed into law by President Benjamin Harrison and paved the way for generations of hikers, campers and nature lovers, along with countless “Don’t Feed the Bears” signs….
1851 – First State Fair in Wisconsin
On this date thirteen counties were represented at the first state fair which was sponsored by the Wisconsin Agricultural Society in Janesville. 10,000 people attended the two-day event. [Source: History Just Ahead: A Guide to Wisconsin’s Historical Markers edited by Sarah McBride, p.118]
1859 – Abraham Lincoln Delivers Address in Beloit
On this date Abraham Lincoln, who had been invited by the Beloit Republican Club, delivered a political address in Hanchett’s Hall. [Source: History Just Ahead: A Guide to Wisconsin’s Historical Markers edited by Sarah Davis McBride, p.117]
From Google’s daily puzzle, something of a prominent scientist’s honeymoon itinerary: “I was the first woman to win a Nobel Prize. What activity did Pierre and I love enough to plan our honeymoon around?”
