I posted yesterday about the Wisconsin Supreme Court primary. Here’s a post about recent general election results that illustrate the evolution of politics in the city.
Overview. For a while, I’ve contended that the left and right (such as they are here) have had an approximate balance, where the right does well in primaries, and the left carries the city in statewide or national races. See, along this line, Why Whitewater Isn’t a Progressive City; Why Whitewater’s ‘Conservatives’ Hold the City Tenuously from November 2010.
More recently, I’ve begun to think that the city (but not the state) is slowly turning blue more completely and decisively. See, The (Red) State, the (Blue) City.
Simply put, Whitewater’s Republican voters underperform the state’s GOP turnout, not just in general elections, but now in primary elections, by meaningful amounts. It’s not just the case that the GOP does less well locally when large numbers of college-age voters turn out. Even in a low intensity primary, as was Tuesday’s, the left-right margin in the city is far closer than statewide.
The 2.19.13 Supreme Court Primary:
Here are the most recent results:
Within Whitewater, considering results from Walworth and Jefferson counties, Roggensack received (unofficially) 292 votes to 242 for Fallone (W 187, J 14) and Megna (W 40,J 1) combined.
In the City of Whitewater, the margin between left and right (and that’s what it truly is, left v. right) was 54.7% as against 45.3%.
That’s more than a 9-point swing each for left and right, or over 18 points closer in Whitewater than in all Wisconsin.
The 2012 November General Election:
Obama statewide — 1,613,950 or 53.4%
Obama in Whitewater — 4,310 or 61%.
Baldwin statewide — 1,544,274 or 52.9%
Baldwin in Whitewater — 3,950 or 57.9%.
Jorgensen for the 43rd Assembly race (Whitewater vote) — 3,828 or 56.7%.
Jorgensen in the 43rd (whole district margin) — 58-42%.
(Jorgensen’s an exception to the contention that Whitewater Republicans underperform state or district Republicans – but not by much. Wynn also ran while a resident of the city, something not present in any of the other races, needless to say.)
(Margins derived from the two-party vote.)
See, Walworth County and Jefferson County results.
The 6.5.12 Recall Vote:
….without campus being in session, Whitewater still chose Barrett over Walker, by about 1,988 to 1,460. There may be some adjustment to these totals, from Jefferson and Walworth Counties, but that’s a greater margin than I would have expected. (Walworth County – now with a much better, much needed election details pdf – and Jefferson County results are online. Walworth County chose Walker 26,201 to 14,330; Jefferson County went for Walker 22,461 to 14,678.)
Barrett carried each of the precincts in the city, in either county. Whitewater’s progressives have typically done better in bigger elections, not as well in smaller, spring elections.
Some results of note:
1. Obama carried every precinct in the city, and Baldwin and Jorgensen each carried every precinct but one. Obama and Baldwin both did far better in Whitewater by two-party vote than they did statewide.
2. Walker did very well statewide in 2012 (better than 2010), but still didn’t carry Whitewater. That’s not because he didn’t run an effective campaign – he most certainly did. It’s because his effective campaign didn’t depend on the GOP in Whitewater, and losing the city to Barrett had no adverse consequence whatever for his effort against the June 2012 recall vote.
3. Results like this aren’t the results of a conservative town, of which there are many in Wisconsin, any of which would deliver far more for the GOP than Whitewater does.
Next: Wholly Unsolicited Political Advice for the Republicans and Democrats of Whitewater.