Yesterday, I posted about the political trading market at Intrade.com as a predictive political market. See, Political Market’s Election Prediction: Obama 364, McCain 174. (For an earlier post on this topic, see also Predictive Political Markets, about the Iowa Electronic Markets.)
What did the traders say, as of yesterday morning?
Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.
Here’s where the totals stand this morning (Nov 5th), with two states still too-close-to-call:
Obama 349, McCain 163.
What about my guess? I chose against the traders yesterday, and allocated Ohio to McCain, for a prediction of Obama 344, McCain 194.
I should not have bet against their collective buying and selling — Ohio also went for Obama.
The political markets produced a predictive result much like the real results, two states still undecided.
Reassuring, in this season of anti-market criticism and, too often, hysteria.
Intrade’s site is available at Intrade.com.