FREE WHITEWATER

Monthly Archives: October 2010

Economy

Goldman Sachs: U.S. GDP Forecasts Are Still Way Too High

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Forecasts from Goldman Sachs of growth way too low for a meaningful recovery —

We expect US growth to remain sluggish next year, as the temporary boosts from inventory restocking and fiscal stimulus wanes while final demand remains weak. If our view is correct, 2011 consensus expectations will move significantly over the months to come. The US consensus estimate of 2.4% in October is still 0.6 ppts above our forecast and will need to continue its recent downward fall see “Forecasters Need to Cut GDP Estimates a Lot Further”, US Daily Comment, August 23, 2010.

Via Goldman: U.S. GDP Forecasts Are Still Way Too High.

Daily Bread

Daily Bread for Whitewater, Wisconsin: 10-29-10

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Good morning,

Whitewater’s forecast calls for a sunny day with a high temperature of fifty degrees.

The Comment Forum will be off today, but will return next Friday. Other features are on the way, today and through the holiday weekend.


Tomorrow I’ll post FREE WHITEWATER’s annual Scariest of Whitewater, with this year’s top ten list of the scariest things in town. For a quick look at past posts, follow these links to the 2007, 2008, and 2009 editions.

From Wired, there’s a story entitled, Your Fingers Know When You Make a Typo, that describes how the

The brain uses two different checks to guard against sloppy copy, a new study finds. By using a doctored word processor to sneak errors into typed words and surreptitiously fix typists’ real errors, researchers teased apart the various ways people catch their own mistakes. The study, published in the Oct. 29 Science, highlights the complexity of performance monitoring….

The results may reveal a hierarchical method of error correction — with a “lower” system doing the actual work and a “higher” system assigning credit and blame, Logan suggests. These multiple layers of control may be evident in tasks such as playing music, speaking and walking to a destination, Logan says. As a man heads toward a new restaurant, his brain is noticing landmarks and keeping on the right course. Meanwhile, his feet steadily plod along, navigating the terrain automatically.

Here’s the citation: G. Logan and M. Crump. Cognitive illusions of authorship reveal distinct hierarchical error detection in skilled typists. Science. Vol. 330, October 29, 2010, p. 683.

City, Weird Tales

Witches of Whitewater: Fact or Fiction? – The Daily Cardinal

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For a quaint college town, Whitewater has a spooky past.

Its urban legends, chock-full of witches, spirits and mysterious happenings, may stem from stories surrounding the Morris Pratt Institute….

Even before the Institute, however, stories of witchcraft and a sacrificial altar, which allegedly lies near UW-Whitewater dorm Wells Hall, earned the town the nickname of the “second salem.”

Via Witches of Whitewater: Fact or Fiction? – The Daily Cardinal – Features.



Daily Bread

Daily Bread for Whitewater, Wisconsin: 10-28-10

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Good morning,

It’s a breezy day in Whitewater, with a forecast for a high temperature of forty-five.

School’s out, for the next two days, a kind of pre-Halloween treat for thousands.

The New York Times reported that on this day in 1886, President Cleveland dedicated the Statue of Liberty:

The statue of Liberty yesterday was seen through a mist darkly. Piercing winds blew around Bedlow’s Island, and the numerous workmen, who were not in any way protected from the weather, worked uncomfortably. The speakers’ stand, and that for the use of musicians above it, were in readiness yesterday. Planks were removed and a semblance of tidiness was given to the island. A big barge, which looked extremely dismal, with its legend in red characters, “Eat, drink, and be merry,” stood at the Bedlow’s Island dock to land visitors. It will be used for that purpose this afternoon.


Unveiling of the Statue of Liberty Enlightening the World (1886) by Edward Moran. Oil on canvas. The J. Clarence Davies Collection, Museum of the City of New York.

Government Spending, School District, Taxes/Taxation

An Exercise in Allocating Responsibility

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A woodworker builds and sells birdhouses. He gathers materials, maintains a shop, and makes a few at a time for display and sale. To advertise his trade, he puts a sign in the window of the workshop:


REASONABLY-PRICED BIRDHOUSES
FROM A
LOCALLY-OWNED AND OPERATED WORKSHOP
ONLY $29.95 EACH

A customer visits the shop, takes a birdhouse off the shelf, and places it on the front counter for purchase. “I’d like to buy this one,” the customer says.

The woodworker smiles, and says, “Thanks. That’ll only be $40.00, less a $2.00 discount, for a total of $38.00. Would you like me to wrap it up?”

The customer’s surprised: “I thought your sign said birdhouses were $29.95 each. That’s $8.05 more than your sign says they cost.”

The woodworker replies: “We’ll, that’s last year’s sign. I have to add the out-of-the-area operations charges each year. Besides, I might have charged $40.00, so I think it’s unfair that you’re not taking that possibility into consideration. I’d at least like a little appreciation for the discount you’re getting. If you think about it, you’re not paying $8.05 more, you’re paying $2.00 less.”

The customer expresses additional surprise that there are ‘out-of-the-area charges,’ since the birdhouses are advertised as products of a ‘locally-owned and operated workshop.’

Exasperated, the woodworker exclaims,”Well, I am a locally-owned and operated shop. But, not all of the $38.00 that I’m charging you is really my responsibility. Years ago, when suppliers subsidized my goods, I was able to pass that along as a service from me to you. Their subsidies were really my gift to you.”

“Now, those suppliers from the big city keep coming down on me, you might even say hammering me, year after year. Although I seem to be charging you $38.00 for a birdhouse, I’m only responsible for about, say, $5.00 of the charges — the rest is the fault of those greedy, indifferent, scheming, manipulative suppliers in the big city. They’re the ones you should be upset with, not me.”

“If you think about it, I’m only charging you $5.00 per birdhouse, probably.”

The customer, puzzled, asks, “How can I tell which part of the work is really your responsibility?”

“That’s easy!” the woodworker declares. “If you find any part of the birdhouses that you like, whatever it may be, including subsidies from suppliers, that’s really from me. On the other hand, if there’s something you don’t like, including additional charges from suppliers, that’s the fault of other people, over whom I have no control, haven’t met personally, and wouldn’t like if I did.”



Daily Bread

Daily Bread for Whitewater, Wisconsin: 10-27-10

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Good morning,

Today’s forecast for Whitewater calls for a windy day with a high temperature of fifty-six degrees.

There will be a Halloween Party at Lakeview School today, from 6 to 8 p.m. At Lincoln School, proud home of the Leopards, it’s VIP day. IT’s Spirit Day at the Middle School.

The Wisconsin Historical Society recalls today as a day of service and sacrifice on behalf of the Union:

1864 – Waukesha Soldier Sinks Confederate Ship

On this date William Cushing led an expedition to sink the Confederate ram, the Albemarle, which had imposed a blockade near Plymouth, North Carolina and had been sinking Union ships. Cushing’s plan was extremely dangerous and only he and one other soldier escaped drowning or capture. Cushing pulled very close to the Confederate ironclad and exploded a torpedo under it while under heavy fire. Cushing’s crew abandoned ship as it began to sink. The Albemarle also sunk. Cushing received a “letter of thanks” from Congress and was promoted to Lieutenant Commander. He died in 1874 due to ill health and is buried in the Naval Cemetery at Annapolis, Maryland. [Source: Badger Saints and Sinners by Fred L. Holmes, p.274-285]

More on Cushing — born in Delafield, Wisconsin — is available online from Wikipedia:

Cushing was born in Delafield, Wisconsin, and was raised in Fredonia, New York. He was expelled from the United States Naval Academy for pranks and poor scholarship. At the outbreak of the American Civil War, however, he pled his case to United States Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles himself, was reinstated and went on to acquire a distinguished record, frequently volunteering for the most hazardous missions. His heroism, good luck and coolness under fire were legendary.



Nature

Small Steps Against Extinction – WSJ.com

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Conservation efforts have helped a few species avoid extinction, but the impact hasn’t been broad enough to stem the long-term decline in biodiversity, new research finds.

The assessment, in two papers published Tuesday in the journal Science, concludes that the survival of one-fifth of the world’s vertebrates is threatened. However, the losses for three specific groups—mammals, birds and amphibians—would have been 20% greater without such conservation efforts as the creation of animal sanctuaries, habitat protection, captive-breeding programs and crackdowns on poachers.

See, Small Steps Against Extinction – WSJ.com.

Government Spending, School District, Taxes/Taxation

An Exercise in Moderation

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A man walks into a restaurant, and orders seven cheeseburgers for dinner.


Still hungry an hour later, he orders eight more.



After just another hour, he looks into his wallet, and sees that he has enough money to order yet nine more.



He motions to the waiter, and prepares to order nine burgers. Just as he’s about to make his request, he thinks about the prudence of ordering nine more sandwiches.

He says to himself, “I have a concern that this amount is too much, and so I will opt to order fewer than nine burgers, to reduce the amount of my eating.”

And so, satisfied with his new commitment to moderation, he orders eight burgers, rather than nine.