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Monthly Archives: December 2013

Review: Predictions for 2013

Here’s my amateur version of the late William Safire’s long-standing tradition of offering annual predictions. The list for 2013:

1. In 2013, UW-Whitewater will win the following number of national sports championships:
A. None
B. One
C. Two
D. More than two

Adams’s guess: D. More than two. I think three, making 2013 another very good year for the school’s athletics.

Correct answer: D. More than two. Football, women’s gymnastics, and women’s wheelchair basketball. Congratulations to all.

2. The Innovation Express Generac Bus will prove to be
A. A great success
B. A moderate success
C. A failure
D. A failure, and reveal years-long bungling from Janesville Transit

Adams’s guess: D. A failure, and reveal years-long bungling from Janesville Transit. This will prove one grant-chasing mess.

Correct answer: D. A failure…so much so, that the multi-billion dollar corporate beneficiary of the bus publicly disputed Janesville officials’ account even of the program’s origins. There’s more to say about this project in the new year.

3. The Zoning Re-Write initiative will
A. Lead to the collapse of civilization within the city
B. Lead to the collapse of civilization everywhere (as the city is all there really is, after all)
C. Make no progress
D. Be a success

Adams’s guess: D. Be a success. It’s possible to re-write successfully.

Correct answer: Somewhere between C and D, but not a success yet, as it’s still ongoing. So far, though, an attempt to push the committee away from a reformist course proved ineffectual.

4. The Referendum Question ‘Move to Amend’ on the spring ballot will
A. Receive no votes in favor
B. Receive between 5 and 10 votes in favor
C. Win in a close vote
D. Win decisively

Adams’s guess: D. Win decisively. I don’t support the initiative (I think it’s anti-speech), but it will do very well on the ballot.

Correct answer: D. Here was a lopsided win if ever one should see one.

5. The Innovation Center will
A. Prove a huge financial triumph
B. Prove a moderate financial accomplishment
C. Barely chug along
D. Face a financial crisis by 2013 year’s end

Adams’s guess: C. Barely chug along. This is a case of scraping by.

Correct answer: C. There’s more to say about this project in the new year.

6. Whitewater’s plan to combat the Emerald Ash Borer will
A. Be a complete success
B. Be a success justifying the effort
C. Fail
D. Fail completely, with those insects having destroyed all Whitewater’s ash trees, and seizing control of the city’s principal public buildings

Adams’s guess: B. Be a success justifying the effort. There’s no likelihood of complete success in these efforts, but the ad hoc work of residents in 2012 and 2013 will give us a better outcome than many other communities.

Correct answer: B. We’ve fared better than one might have hoped.

7. By year’s end, the amount of vacant commercial space in Whitewater will be
A. Greater than in 2012
B. The same as 2012
C. Slightly less than 2012
D. Far less than 2012

Adams’s guess: C. Slightly less than 2012. I think slightly less, but that will only be evident in the second half of 2013.

Correct answer: C. My rough estimate suggests that we’ve boosted occupancy, and have a slight decline in vacancies.

8. Newspapers serving the Whitewater area will be
A. More in number and more read than ever before
B. The same in number and read about the same as before
C. Fewer in number and less read than before
D. Fewer in number and far less read than before

Adams’s guess: C. Fewer in number and less read than before. If there’s a paywall set up among any of them (and there’s really only one that could even make the attempt), expect overall readership to plummet. This may also be the year one them goes under.

Correct answer: None of these choices – the correct answer would have been ‘the same in number but less read than before.’ Readership is unquestionably down, but we’ve the same number of newspapers.  

9. The Whitewater Unified School District’s post-union future will be
A. Mostly uneventful
B. Mostly uneventful, despite efforts from the right to spark controversy
C. Mostly uneventful, despite efforts from the left to spark controversy
D. Contentious

Adams’s guess: B. Mostly uneventful, despite efforts from the right to spark controversy. There’ll be some stirring up of peripheral issues, and those harping on small matters will (predictably) ignore the more important topics of accomplishment and expenditure. We’ll fortunately avoid the sideshow fuss other districts have endured over minor policies.

Correct answer: A. There was no meaningful push here, by left or right, to create a controversy over employee relations, etc. We have escaped, fortunately, the distracting political that have gripped other districts (including Janesville).

10. After spring elections, Whitewater’s Common Council will be
A. More conservative
B. More moderate
C. More liberal
D. There’s still no left or right in Whitewater’s local politics

Adams’s guess: B. More moderate. Over time, the city will become more outwardly ideological, and that change will produce a better politics (of left or right). It will be, however, a gradual process, and with some issues leading to combinations between more modern representatives of the left and right.

Correct answer: B. It’s more moderate.

Not a bad year for guessing, with six of ten correct, and two others partly correct. (Although those two others were partly correct only because the available choices were poorly conceived, so that’s an area for improvement all its own.) Still, a step up from last year’s four-in-ten result.

Tomorrow: Predictions for 2014.

Daily Bread for 12.31.13

Good morning.

Our year in Whitewater closes with a high of nine and evening snow showers. Sunrise was 7:26 AM and sunset will be 4:31 PM. The moon is only a sliver, being a waning crescent with only 1% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1991, the last institutions of the Soviet Union not previously dissolved finally fade into history.

On this day in 1967, the Packers win the Ice Bowl:

1967 – Green Bay Packers Triumph in “Ice Bowl”
On this date the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys played in what many consider to be the greatest game in NFL history – The Ice Bowl. With the thermometer dipping to a shocking 13 below zero and a wind chill of minus 46, Bart Starr scored the winning touchdown from the 1-yard line with 13 seconds remaining, sealing a record third straight championship for the Packers, their fifth in seven years. Green Bay defeated Dallas, 21-17, to win the NFL Championship. [Source: Packers.com]

Daily Bread for 12.30.13

Good morning.

Our month and year in Whitewater are ending with especially cold temperatures: the high today will be seven, with wind chill values of ten to twenty below.

So, it really does make sense to look before one leaps:

Deer dies at National Zoo after jumping into cheetah pen

WASHINGTON (AP) – Two cheetahs at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo have met with some unexpected prey. The result was predictable.

Zoo officials say a white-tailed deer was killed by the cheetahs after it apparently jumped into their enclosure on Friday. A spokeswoman calls it “a normal and expected reaction” by the carnivorous big cats.

The zoo says a zookeeper heard noises from the cheetah pen shortly before noon and found the deer carcass next the cheetah siblings, named Carmelita and Justin.

Doctors will examine the carcass to make sure the deer didn’t have any diseases.

No witnesses saw the deer entering the cheetah habitat – other than the cheetahs.

Deer are plentiful in Rock Creek Park, which borders the zoo. The National Park Service has used sharpshooters to control the deer population.

On this day in 1922, the USSR is formally established; it was dissolved sixty-nine years later. The truly authoritative Black Book of Communism: Crime, Terror, Repression enumerates the millions the Soviet state murdered, among many other victims of communism, during that time.

Also on that day, in Madison, local law enforcement battled demon rum moonshine:

1922 – Authorities Confiscate Illegal Alcohol
On this date authorities in Madison confiscated 1,200 gallons of “mash” and fifteen gallons of moonshine from the home of a suspected bootlegger. As the illegal liquor trade flourished in Madison’s Greenbush neighborhood during Prohibition, two rival gangs, one on Regent Street and the other located on Milton Street, fought to gain control until the “Rum War” erupted among these factions in 1923. [Source: Bishops to Bootleggers: A Biographical Guide to Resurrection Cemetery, p.189]

Daily Bread for 12.29.13

Good morning.

We’ll have a probability of a wintry mix today, of freezing rain and snow showers, with little or no accumulation of snow. Temperatures will fall from a high of thirty-three to about eleven degrees by 5 PM.

The results of the latest FW poll are in, and on the question of whether a proposal from a man being arrested is merely a minor relationship setback or a sign of real trouble, it’s a close call: 51.52% said sign of real trouble, but almost as many (48.48%) said minor setback. I would have thought the results would have been more lopsided on the side of a sign of real trouble.

The results suggest, I think, that responding readers are, overall, less skeptical of individual turnarounds than I’m inclined to be. Regardless of my doubts, I hope it works out for the couple; at the very least, they’ll have a unique engagement story to tell.

On this day in 1845, Texas becomes a state, leaving whatever benefit she brought to America eventually to be offset by the presence of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL:

Six months after the congress of the Republic of Texas accepts U.S. annexation of the territory, Texas is admitted into the United States as the 28th state.

After gaining independence from Spain in the 1820s, Mexico welcomed foreign settlers to sparsely populated Texas, and a large group of Americans led by Stephen F. Austin settled along the Brazos River. The Americans soon outnumbered the resident Mexicans, and by the 1830s attempts by the Mexican government to regulate these semi-autonomous American communities led to rebellion. In March 1836, in the midst of armed conflict with the Mexican government, Texas declared its independence from Mexico.

The Texas volunteers initially suffered defeat against the forces of Mexican General Santa Anna–the Alamo fell and Sam Houston’s troops were forced into an eastward retreat. However, in late April, Houston’s troops surprised a Mexican force at San Jacinto, and Santa Anna was captured, bringing an end to Mexico’s efforts to subdue Texas.

The citizens of the independent Republic of Texas elected Sam Houston president but also endorsed the entrance of Texas into the Union. The likelihood of Texas joining the Union as a slave state delayed any formal action by the U.S. Congress for more than a decade. In 1844, Congress finally agreed to annex the territory of Texas….

On 12.29.1879, one of America’s most visionary generals is born:

1879 – General William “Billy” Mitchell Born
On this date aviation pioneer Billy Mitchell was born in Nice, France. Mitchell grew up in Milwaukee and attended Racine College. During World War I, Mitchell was the first American airman to fly over enemy lines.  He also led many air attacks in France and Germany. Upon return to the U.S., he advocated the creation of a separate Air Force. Much to the dislike of A.T. Mahan, Theodore Roosevelt, and other contemporaries, Mitchell asserted that the airplane had rendered the battleship obsolete, and attention should be shifted to developing military air power.

Mitchell’s out-outspokenness resulted in his being court martialed for insubordination. He was sentenced to five years suspension of rank without pay. General Douglas MacArthur — an old Milwaukee friend — was a judge in Mitchell’s case and voted against his court martial. Mitchell’s ideas for developing military air power were not implemented until long after his death. In 1946 Congress created a medal in his honor, the General “Billy” Mitchell Award. Milwaukee’s airport, General Mitchell International Airport, is named after him. [Source: American Airpower Biography]

Daily Bread for 12.28.13

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be sunny and relatively mild, with a high of thirty-nine.

A video is sometimes popular more than once, achieving notoriety initially and then again at a later date. That’s true of this recording, of a puppy practicing to howl:

On this day in 1973, the publication of a political and literary masterpiece:

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn’s “literary investigation” of the police-state system in the Soviet Union, The Gulag Archipelago, 1918-1956, is published in the original Russian in Paris. The book was the first of the three-volume work. The brutal and uncompromising description of political repression and terror was quickly translated into many languages and was published in the United States just a few months later.

Solzhenitsyn’s massive work detailed the machinations of the Soviet police state from the time of the Bolshevik Revolution to 1956. In the preface to the book, however, he warned that reading the work would be “very dangerous” for Russians in 1973. The book was important in that it maintained that police terror had always been essential to the existence of the Soviet state. This deviated from the standard Soviet line that such terror had only come about during the time of Stalin and evaporated upon his death in 1956. Solzhenitsyn admitted that political repression eased during the ensuing Khruschev years–the author himself was freed from political prison during that time. However, he believed that since Khruschev’s ouster in 1964, the Soviet state again resorted to intimidation and terror. His disappointment at the reversion of his country to these scare tactics influenced his decision to allow the publication of his book.

The book was an instant success in the West, but Soviet officials were livid. TASS, the official Soviet news agency, declared that the work was an “unfounded slander” against the Russian people. On February 12, 1974, Solzhenitsyn was arrested, stripped of his citizenship, and deported. He eventually settled in the United States. In the 1980s, he refused Mikhail Gorbachev’s offer to reinstate his Soviet citizenship, but did return to Russia to live in 1994. Solzhenitsyn died of heart failure in Moscow on August 3, 2008. He was 89.

Friday Catblogging: New Species

Biologists discover that one Brazilian species is really two:

Wild cats are charismatic creatures, so you’d think we’d know them all pretty well by now. Just how little we understand—at least in some cases—is reflected in the identification of a new species of cat known as a tigrina in northeastern Brazil.

Scientists have discovered that two populations of tigrina previously thought to be one species do not, in fact, interbreed and thus are distinct, according to results published today in Current Biology.

“So much is still unknown about the natural world, even in groups that are supposed to be well-characterized, such as cats,” says the study’s lead author, Eduardo Eizirik of Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil.

“In fact, there are many basic aspects that we still don’t know about wild cats, [including] their precise geographic distribution and their diets.”

Eizirik’s results have implications for conservation efforts—particularly laws about poaching and the designation of national parkland. Such measures are often focused on individual species.

Friday Poll: Marriage Proposal During Arrest – Minor Setback or Sign of Real Trouble?

In Oklahoma, a police officer saw and arrested Justin Harrel of Elk City in a local park on outstanding warrants for obtaining cash or merchandise by bogus check. He was handcuffed at the time of his arrest.

As it turns out, Harrel was – at that very moment, in fact – about to propose to his girlfriend, Elaina Rios. The officer allowed Harrel to complete his proposal to Miss Rios, even helpfully retrieving an engagement ring from Harrel’s pocket.

Elaina Rios accepted the proposal, and describes Harrel in glowing terms.

An obvious question: was Harrel’s arrest at the time of his marriage proposal a minor setback on the long path of a blissful relationship, or is it more likely (in your opinion) that Rios should have considered the arrest a warning sign of real trouble ahead?

People can change, of course, but I’m on the sign of real trouble side of the scales on this one. (It’s safe to say that’s a considerable understatement.)

What do you think?


Daily Bread for 12.27.13

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of thirty-one.

On this day in 1900, fanatical temperance warrior Carrie (also spelled Carry) Nation goes to town on a bar:

Carrie_Nation

Prohibitionist Carry Nation smashes up the bar at the Carey Hotel in Wichita, Kansas, causing several thousand dollars in damage and landing in jail. Nation, who was released shortly after the incident, became famous for carrying a hatchet and wrecking saloons as part of her anti-alcohol crusade….

Nation died in 1911, never living to see nationwide prohibition in America, which was established with the 18th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and went into effect on January 16, 1920. Prohibition, considered a failure, was repealed on December 5, 1933, by the 21st Amendment.

On 12.27.1831, a future governor is born:

1831 – Lucius Fairchild Born
On this date Lucius Fairchild was born in Kent, Ohio. Soldier, diplomat, and Wisconsin Governor, Fairchild arrived in Madison with his family in 1846. After a trip to California in search of gold, Fairchild returned to Madison and studied law. He was a soldier in the “Iron Brigade” and lost an arm at the Battle of Gettysburg in 1863. He was elected as a Republican to the post of secretary of state and in 1865 was elected governor. He served for three terms. As governor and as a private citizen, Fairchild was active in promoting soldiers’ aid. [Source: Dictionary of Wisconsin History]

 

Daily Bread for 12.26.13

Good morning.

Thursday brings a high of twenty-three, with a likelihood of about half an inch of snow. Sunrise is 7:25 AM and sunset 4:27 PM. The moon is a waning crescent with 38% of its visible disk illuminated.

Dictator and mass murderer Mao Tse-tsung is born on this day in 1893.

Also on this day, in 1776, a far better man wins a surprise victory in Trenton:

At approximately 8 a.m. on the morning of December 26, 1776, General George Washington’s Continental Army reaches the outskirts of Trenton, New Jersey, and descends upon the unsuspecting Hessian force guarding the city. Trenton’s 1,400 Hessian defenders were still groggy from the previous evening’s Christmas festivities and had underestimated the Patriot threat after months of decisive British victories throughout New York. The troops of the Continental Army quickly overwhelmed the German defenses, and by 9:30 a.m.Trenton was completely surrounded.

Although several hundred Hessians escaped, nearly 1,000 were captured at the cost of only four American lives.

Over these last few days, astronauts at the International Space Station undertook repairs to a cooling system on the station. They had quite a view of the outdoors:


Merry Christmas


The Solemn Proclamation of Christmas, Midnight Mass 2011. Broadcast live from St George’s RC Cathedral, Southwark on 24th December 2011. Director of Music: Nick Gale, Soloist: Dominic Keating-Roberts. Text: New ICEL translation 2010.

Daily Bread for 12.24.13

Good morning.

Christmas Eve will be increasingly cloudy, with a high of fifteen, and wind chill values of zero to fifteen below. We’ll have a likelihood of one to two inches of snow later tonight.

There’s a dog in Wellesley, Massachusetts who’ll have a happy Christmas after all:

On this day in 1814, a war two years long ends:

1814 – War of 1812 Ends
On this date the Treaty of Ghent was signed, ending the the War of 1812 which was fought between the United States and Great Britain from June 1812 to the spring of 1815 (news of the treaty took several months to reach the frontiers of No. America). The treaty provided for the cessation of hostilities, the restoration of conquests, and a commission to settle boundary disputes. John Quincy Adams served as the chief negotiator for the United States.

The treaty formalized U.S. possession of land which included present-day Wisconsin. [Source: The Avalon Project at Yale Law School]