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Daily Bread for 5.15.20

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-four.  Sunrise is 5:30 AM and sunset 8:11 PM, for 14h 41m 27s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 41.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1776, the Fifth Virginia Convention instructs its Continental Congress delegation to propose a resolution of independence from Great Britain.

Recommended for reading in full —

Scott R. Anderson and Margaret Taylor write The House Prepares to Move Forward With Remote Voting:

On May 13, House Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern unveiled H. Res. 965, his latest proposal for implementing some form of remote voting in the House of Representatives in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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So how would this plan work? Like its predecessor, H. Res. 965 is still centered on the idea of proxy voting, a practice in which one member of Congress casts a vote on behalf of another. Yet it incorporates changes that address various concerns with and criticisms of that approach—including some we previously put forward.

The revised proposal would provide for special procedures during certain “covered periods[,]” as designated by the speaker in consultation with the minority leader (or their designees). The speaker would be able to make such a designation only after being notified by the sergeant-at-arms, in consultation with the attending physician, that “a public health emergency due to a novel coronavirus is in effect[.]” Any designated “covered period” would last only for 45 days, though the speaker would be free to extend it in intervals of up to an additional 45 days through these same basic procedures. If the sergeant-at-arms and attending physician were ever to notify the speaker that the public health emergency is no longer in effect, the speaker would be obligated to terminate the covered period.

During such a period, any member of the House would be able to designate another member of the House as his or her proxy through a signed letter delivered to the clerk of the House, including through electronic means. No one member would be able to serve as proxy for more than 10 other members, and any member would be able to change this designation through the same procedures. The clerk would also be responsible for informing majority and minority leaders of any such designations or changes and for maintaining a list of designated proxies, which would be made available to the public. A designated proxy would, in turn, only be allowed to cast a vote on a matter or record his or her presence pursuant to “exact instruction[s]” from the member whom the proxy is representing, which the proxy would be obligated to announce prior to doing so. Any individuals voting through a proxy would be counted toward the quorum required for the House to conduct business under relevant congressional rules (and the Constitution’s Quorum Clause).

Separately, during a covered period, House committees and subcommittees would also be authorized to pursue a broad range of their functions remotely—including participating in proceedings, holding hearings and business meetings (which would have to be made open to the public), authoring reports, issuing subpoenas, and voting. The only exception would be for closed and executive sessions, which would still only be able to be held in person.

 The Rise of Instacart and Online Grocery Delivery:

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Practical Implications After Wisconsin v. Palm: The Divide over the Novel Coronavirus

On March 24th, I first began a draft of this post. It seemed to probable then – and it is true now – that Trump would effectually abandon a social distancing or stay-at-home approach, and encourage business as usual to resume promptly. The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s ruling in Wisconsin v. Palm has brought that abandonment to Wisconsin (at least to much of the state absent local health restrictions) in both law and practice.

A few remarks —

Tump may describe the novel coronavirus as an ‘invisible enemy,’ but it’s literally an impersonal enemy; people who think of themselves as ‘warriors,’ etc., will not gain added immunity. Human conduct may slow the speed of this pandemic, but people’s feelings about themselves offer no protection against infection. There’s a lot of childish, magical thinking about infection; nature will take its toll regardless of mere feeling.

This pandemic will bring economic loss and hardship even if businesses re-open. Some but not all demand will return. For many establishments and laborers some but not all will mean business failure and joblessness no matter what Trump says. See Consumer Sentiment, The Reopening Debate Will Turn on Consumer Demand, The Finance 202: American consumers aren’t ready to shop again, even as states reopen, and Again – Consumer Sentiment.

Long after businesses re-open, unemployment is likely to remain at Great Recession levels through next year.

Young and Old. It makes sense that younger, healthier people want to go out, to clubs and concerts. The Tavern League has wanted everyone back yesterday. The claim that patrons should do whatever they want in a bar will not satisfy others who will be near those younger people in grocery or big box stores. The legitimate concern is that club-goers will spread infection in places far beyond clubs.  Photographs of bar and club patrons with no masks, packed together celebrating, will only infuriate residents who are older and taking precautions against infection.

Communities that have town-gown conflicts will see an exacerbation of those tensions.

There are also educational decisions that await Wisconsin communities in the fall, that may be the subject negotiations between Wisconsin’s legislative and executive branches.

Universities may re-open in the fall, but one cannot say with confidence that they will stay open for the ’20-’21 academic year.  In Wisconsin, for most System schools (except perhaps UW-Madsion and UW-Milwaukee), decisions about the fall semester are almost certainly going to be made at the System level.  Wisconsin has long since passed the point of significant local university control. What a local chancellor wants will be far less influential than what the Regents will want.

Unlike universities, K12 education is compulsory for children, making decisions about K12 programs the most sensitive of all public policy decisions. People will forgive almost anything before they’ll forgive the injury or loss of a child. It won’t matter that officials – administrators and or school board members – are otherwise fine people. All those warm feelings will wither if there’s injury to minor children. Officials who have handled other controversies will find this responsibility an order of magnitude greater than anything they’ve handled before. Some districts will have leaders who rise to the moment; other districts will (almost certainly) fall short.

There’s no less enviable role than that of officials who will have to exercise authority over others’ children during a pandemic.

Universities and K12 programs opening in the fall will need protective equipment, testing devices, and organizational discipline greater than these programs have ever before needed (as their number of students is so much larger than during any past contagion).

Writing now in May (with a few months yet to go), there does not look to be a single community in Wisconsin prepared for a return of university, K12, and business life in the fall.

Daily Bread for 5.14.20

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be cloudy with showers and a high of sixty-nine.  Sunrise is 5:31 AM and sunset 8:10 PM, for 14h 39m 24s of daytime.  The moon is a waning gibbous with 51% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1973, Skylab, America’s first space station, is launched.

Recommended for reading in full —

 Laura Hazard Owen reports Americans say there are two main sources of COVID-19 misinformation: social media and Donald Trump:

A majority of U.S. adults think that misinformation about the the COVID-19 pandemic is a problem, according to survey results released Monday by Gallup and the Knight Foundation. And who are its sources?

Asked to identify the two most common sources of misinformation, a combined 68 percent name social media and 54 percent the Trump administration, though more give the Trump administration as their first response (47 percent) than social media (15 percent).

“82% of Democrats, 79% of independents and 73% of Republicans” think coronavirus misinformation is a major problem — but, not surprisingly, Democrats were vastly more likely to identify the Trump administration as a major source of misinformation (85 percent) than Republicans (4 percent). Meanwhile, 75 percent of Republicans identified mainstream news organizations as the main source of false or misleading coronavirus information, compared to just 2 percent of Democrats. So what you’d expect.

Kiera Butler reports What negative interest rates would mean for your wallet:

Up until this point, the Federal Reserve has never brought its benchmark rate into negative territory and, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is not considering going to negative interest rates now.

“The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed,” Powell said Wednesday. “This is not something that we’re looking at.”

Yet, “on some level, negative interest rates are inevitable in the U.S.,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It’s just a matter of when.”

President Donald Trump was advocating for negative interest rates well before the coronavirus pandemic brought the economy to a standstill, arguing that erasing borrowing costs would spur economic growth.

“Negative interest rates sound like fun but it’s nothing to wish for,” McBride said.

“It hasn’t even proven to be effective,” he added. “Parts of Europe have had negative interest rates for seven years and it hasn’t done anything — their economies were reeling then, they’re reeling now.”
And even if the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge one another for short-term borrowing, fell below zero, that is not the rate that consumers pay.

The prime rate, which is the rate that banks extend to their most creditworthy customers, is typically 3 percentage points higher than the federal funds rate.

Should Georgia Reopen? These Pastors Say No:

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Wisconsin Supreme Court: Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm

Embedded below is the decision of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm. On a 4-3 decision, Wisconsin’s highest court has ruled that the Safer at Home order is unenforceable.  (Readers have asked me via email me over the last week how the court might rule.  I have replied to each message that this court was almost certain to rule this way; if anything, a 5-2 majority seemed likely after last week’s oral argument.)

Tomorrow: The practical implications of Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm.

Tonight: The majority and dissenting opinions, below.

[embeddoc url=”https://freewhitewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020AP765-OA-2020-WI-42.pdf” width=”100%” download=”all” viewer=”google”]

3 Views of the Trump Digital Campaign Operation

Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, is proud of the digital campaign operation he’s created for Trump’s election. He’s even referred to it (absurdly) as a ‘Death Star’ operation.

Views of the Trump digital offering are mixed.

Dave Weigel sees Trump digital platform as interactively engaging for Trump’s fans

Trump 2020 did not let me go so easily. A news feed let me read the latest messaging, just as it would appear to a reporter on the media list, or the campaign’s curated tweets, which prioritized big names like campaign manager Brad Parscale. An “engage” button educated me on ways to “fight with President Trump,” from hosting a “MAGA Meet Up” to joining the campaign finance committee as a high-dollar bundler. Sharing the app with a friend would award me 100 points, while sharing any news item to Twitter or Facebook would give me a single point. A good prize, like expedited entry at any to-be-scheduled rallies, cost 25,000 points.

The “gamified” Trump app has made some Democrats nervous, not least because Biden hasn’t tried to compete with it. Everything that came from the Trump campaign had an act-fast, as-seen-on-TV feeling

Amanda Carpenter thinks Parscale’s effort is less about the 2020 campaign than it is about a 2021 television launch:

When you think about it, the Trump App might be a less of a tool designed to help Trump win, than a hedge against him losing. Because while it isn’t going to convert undecided voters, it sure looks like an effective vehicle for creating an audience for a new media platform.

It would be the smartest thing his campaign has done, actually: Trump has built a massive data operation that could be turned into a viable media property that could become something like TrumpTV come January 20, 2021. And he got his political donors to foot the bill. Talk about a great kickstarter campaign.

Roger Ailes founded Fox with the vision it would become a powerhouse media ecosystem for Republicans. A new media channel pioneered by a former Republican president with a built-in following could easily be the next step. Trump TV would probably eat Fox’s lunch. He has a more significant and devoted following than any Fox star with access to the entire cosmos of Republican politicians eager to court him. And Fox itself is at a crossroads where its corporate leadership no longer even seems to know whether it wants to ride this tiger.

Besides, why would the millions of Americans who love them some Trump be willing to settle for a throne sniffer like Sean Hannity or a knock-off brand like OANN when they could get the real thing?

Jonathan V. Last thinks that while the electoral value of Parscale’s efforts will be hard to discern, it’s plausible to view the digital offering as a con game with Trump as the mark:

A lot has been written about the Trump campaign’s super-sophisticated digital operation. I am . . . not skeptical, exactly. But let me say this:

Brad Parscale has a very keen interest in making sure that his job is portrayed as being a gigantic, all-powerful black box.

In 2016, Trump cycled through campaign managers at a rapid clip. The only job security Parscale has comes from convincing Trump that he has built some magical machine which no one else—and especially not Old Man Trump—can understand. Or operate.

….

If Trump keeps Parscale around even as he lags Biden in the polls, it’s a sign that the president no longer believes that he is enough to get his voters out on his own and that he’s hostage to whatever sales pitch he bought from Parscale.

It’s a good reminder that inside every con man is a mark.

Daily Bread for 5.13.20

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of sixty-three.  Sunrise is 5:32 AM and sunset 8:09 PM, for 14h 37m 20s of daytime.  The moon is a waning gibbous with 60.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1864, Battle of Resaca begins with Union General Sherman fighting toward Atlanta.

Recommended for reading in full —

 Austin Horn reports This Editor Turned What A Sheriff Said Was ‘Not News’ Into A Pulitzer-Winning Series:

Jeffery Gerritt, editor of the Palestine Herald-Press in East Texas, hadn’t planned on writing a series about inmates who were dying in county jails.

But he thought the death of a woman in jail, and the local authorities’ silence on the matter, was worth pointing out to his town of about 19,000 residents.

“Her name was Rhonda Newsome,” Gerritt told NPR. “And the local sheriff would not give me any information about her. In fact, on one of the very few phone conversations I had with him when I first got here, he told me a death in the jail is not news.”

The story led to several others on Newsome’s death and the deaths of other people in county jails across Texas. That series of stories won Gerritt and the Herald-Press the 2020 Pulitzer Prize in Editorial Writing.

Gerritt’s series, “Death Without Conviction,” shed light on flaws in Texas’ system of review for deaths in county jails, where inmates have not been convicted of a crime. Pulitzer Administrator Dana Canedy praised Gerritt, saying he “courageously took on the local sheriff and judicial establishment, which tried to cover up these needless tragedies.”

Kiera Butler reports Anti-Vaxxers Have a Dangerous Theory Called “Natural Immunity.” Now It’s Going Mainstream:

On April 26, two California physicians posted a video on YouTube about what they said was a potentially deadly side effect of social distancing: Our immune systems will get weaker because of lack of exposure to germs. They weren’t the only ones to make this argument. In a May 4 video, a controversial and outspoken Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai—an engineer who claims to have invented email—also embraces this idea. In a May 3 YouTube video, he announced, “Viruses do not harm or kill us.” Instead, he argues, “Your body is an amazing being—it knows how to take care of itself, and that’s how we get immune health. But these politicians, the CDC and the NIH—they’re not talking about any of this. Shame on them, it’s criminal.” An article from the Minnesota-based conservative think tank the Charlemagne Institute titled “COVID-19 Lockdowns May Destroy Our Immune Systems” is currently making the rounds, too.

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But the coronavirus is not a chronic immune condition; it’s a novel virus that attacks the body’s systems in ways not yet completely understood. Experts roundly reject the idea that social distancing will dangerously weaken the immune system. “A broad-based immunity weakening because of social distancing? Definitely not,” said Saad Omer, a Yale University epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist. Jennifer Reich, a sociologist who studies the spread of misinformation about health, agreed. “In order for our immune systems to be harmed by social distancing, we would have to live in sterile settings for a long time in which no bacteria or germs could affect us,” she wrote to me in an email.

 Billion Oyster Project Aims to Restore NY Harbor Reefs:

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Daily Bread for 5.12.20

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of fifty-nine.  Sunrise is 5:33 AM and sunset 8:08 PM, for 14h 35m 12s of daytime.  The moon is a waning gibbous with 70.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

 Whitewater’s Public Works Committee  meets at 6 PM via audiovisual conferencing.

 On this day in 1949, the Soviet Union lifts its unsuccessful blockade of Berlin.

Recommended for reading in full —

Charlotte Butash writes Supreme Court Oral Argument Preview: Trump Financial Documents Cases:

On May 12, the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in Trump v. Mazars and Trump v. Deutsche Bank, the consolidated cases concerning whether President Trump’s business and personal financial records are subject to subpoenas from congressional committees. These cases were linked with a third, Trump v. Vance, which concerns whether a New York state grand jury can subpoena the president’s personal financial records and also is scheduled for oral argument on May 12. The outcome of these three cases could have significant implications for congressional power, the Trump family’s business dealings and the transparency of the president’s reelection campaign.

The court is livestreaming the audio of the arguments, under its new policy that governs arguments during the coronavirus pandemic. Argument in Mazars and Deutsche Bank will be divided among attorneys for the congressional committees, attorneys for the president and attorneys from the Justice Department. Argument in Vance will be divided among attorneys for the New York County District Attorney’s Office, attorneys for the president and attorneys from the Justice Department. You can listen here at 10 a.m.

Dr. Leana S. Wen writes of Six flaws in the arguments for reopening:

It’s worth the sacrifice if some people die so that the country has a functioning economy. This is a false choice; there are ways to safely reopen, and consumer confidence depends on the reassurance of public health protections.

Another flaw with this argument is that those making it are committing others to a sacrifice they did not choose. Covid-19 has disproportionately affected people of color, who are more likely to be essential workers, as well as to have chronic health conditions that make them more susceptible to severe illness. Minorities and working-class Americans of all ethnicities unable to shelter at home will continue to bear the brunt of infections, illness and death. Individual liberty cannot take precedence over the health and well-being of the less privileged.

We’ve been in lockdown for more than a month and cases aren’t declining; social distancing doesn’t work. Actually, social distancing has worked in places where measures were applied early and consistently. The two states with earliest known community transmission, California and Washington, avoided surges. New York was able to “flatten” its curve, and the number of cases at this epicenter is declining.

U.S. case numbers have not declined as much as case numbers in other countries because we have not applied the aggressive measures that some Asian and European countries have. At best, the United States has had a piecemeal approach. Some states never issued stay-at-home orders. Social distancing was intended to buy time to prepare hospitals and scale up capacity to test, trace and isolate coronavirus infections. Hospitals are better prepared than they were two months ago, but the country still lacks the resources for mass testing and contact tracing/isolation on the scale needed to tamp down infections.

How Coronavirus Antibody Testing Works:

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A Necessary Public Policy Question

Now, and ending one knows not when, public policy proposals that involve human interaction should address, as a necessary element, the question of whether the coronavirus pandemic affects the proposal.

A person might assume that he could walk through a forest without ever encountering a wolf, and even convince himself that, by power of suggestion alone, he would never meet one. And yet, there’s been not a single documented case of a man avoiding a wolf because he wished those predators away. (There have also been far more cases of COVID-19 in America than there are wolves.)

Wolves do not cause harm the way the novel coronavirus does, but they are alike in two respects: neither speaks English, and even if so neither would be in the least deterred by Trump’s reassurances on Twitter.

Proposals involving human interaction that do not consider the conditions of a pandemic are deficient either from ignorance or willful delusion. They should be rejected pending revision.  The hope that all this will end yesterday is understandably strong; it is not, however, a hope on which planning can prudently rest.

Proposals that that do consider the pandemic may fall short, but at least they will have met an initial, necessary threshold question.

Some policymakers will adjust more quickly than others; some will never adjust.

Again – Consumer Sentiment

A story from the Wall Street Journal reminds that ‘re-opening’ is futile without broad-based consumer demand. Austen Hufford and Bob Tita report Factories Close for Good as Coronavirus Cuts Demand (‘Some manufacturers that furloughed employees during lockdowns say plants won’t reopen’):

Factory furloughs across the U.S. are becoming permanent closings, a sign of the heavy damage the coronavirus pandemic and shutdowns are exerting on the industrial economy.

Makers of dishware in North Carolina, furniture foam in Oregon and cutting boards in Michigan are among the companies closing factories in recent weeks. Caterpillar Inc. said it is considering closing plants in Germany, boat-and-motorcycle-maker Polaris Inc. plans to close a plant in Syracuse, Ind., and tire maker Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. plans to close a plant in Gadsden, Ala.

Those factory shutdowns will further erode an industrial workforce that has been shrinking as a share of the overall U.S. economy for decades. While manufacturing output last year surpassed a previous peak from 2007, factory employment never returned to levels reached before the financial crisis.

Again and again: this economic crisis is at bottom a public health crisis, and it cannot be solved satisfactorily absent public health measures to restore widespread confidence.

See also Consumer Sentiment, The Reopening Debate Will Turn on Consumer Demand, and The Finance 202: American consumers aren’t ready to shop again, even as states reopen