Good morning.

Halloween in Whitewater will be snowy with a high of thirty-three.  Sunrise is 7:28 AM and sunset 5:48 PM, for 10h 19m 43s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 14.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1940, the Battle of Britain ends in victory over the Luftwaffe.

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 The AP reports Wisconsin GOP leader Robin Vos says climate change is ‘probably’ real.  Alternative headlines: GOP leader Robin Vos says world probably round, water probably wet, and apple pie might taste good.

Craig Gilbert and Christal Hayes report Ron Johnson says his involvement in Ukraine will not cause him to recuse himself from a Senate impeachment trial:

The senior senator from Wisconsin has taken on a unique role in the impeachment saga, largely because of his own close involvement with Ukraine issues, as chair of the foreign relations subcommittee on Europe and as a member of the Senate’s bipartisan Ukraine Caucus. That placed him in conversations and meetings that are being scrutinized by House investigators. As a senator, he has also looked into unproven claims that Ukraine assisted Democrats in the 2016 election.

House Democrats on the three investigative committees (Oversight, Intelligence and Foreign Affairs) say they are open to hearing from Johnson, though they were cautious about how to request the testimony of a fellow member of Congress.

“Let’s put it this way, it would be nice to have more explanation from and about Ron Johnson’s activities with respect to Ukraine,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly, D-Va., a member of the House Oversight Committee. “What was his role? What did he see as his role? And what did he do? And why did he do it?”

(Accomplices aren’t supposed to be jurors.)

Kate Brannen reports White House Ignored Pentagon Warning on Ukraine Funding:

As the summer wore on, and President Donald Trump would not budge on his decision to withhold almost $400 million in military aid for Ukraine, the Pentagon warned the White House: If its portion of the money wasn’t released quickly, the Defense Department would not be able to spend it before the fiscal year ended on September 30.

The Pentagon even gave the White House a deadline. In late July, as panic spread within the administration over the president’s worrisome decision, the National Security Council led a series of interagency meetings to discuss what to do about the military assistance to Ukraine. At one of these meetings, Defense Department officials told the White House that if the $250 million in security assistance was not released by August 6, it would not be able to spend it all by the end of the fiscal year, according to two sources familiar with the deliberations.

….

And the Pentagon was also clear that providing Ukraine the security assistance was in the national security interests of the United States, on that point Trump’s Cabinet agreed.

 Dominating the $67 Billion Art World:

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of forty.  Sunrise is 7:27 AM and sunset 5:49 PM, for 10h 22m 18s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 7.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1938, Orson Welles directs and narrates a Mercury Theatre radio production of The War of the Worlds.

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  David J. Lynch reports In manufacturing Midwest, signs of trouble amid good times:

MANITOWOC, Wis. — Sachin Shivaram, the chief executive of Wisconsin Aluminum Foundry, started to worry this summer when orders for his brake housings and conveyor belt motors first grew scarce. Within weeks, what began as mild concern snowballed into a business drought that has seen bookings plunge by 40 percent.

In August, Shivaram, 38, reluctantly laid off two dozen workers, hoping to recall them when the outlook improved. It hasn’t.

“Things are not good. We didn’t anticipate this level of deterioration,” he said. “Orders are down across the board.”

The sudden slump at this ­110-year-old company illustrates the economic erosion that is challenging President Trump’s signature promise to restore a lost era of American manufacturing greatness.

….

Already, plants in several Midwestern states that will be crucial to the president’s reelection campaign are shedding workers. Manufacturing employment is down by almost 9,000 in Pennsylvania over the past year and 6,800 in Wisconsin. Michigan, Indiana and Minnesota also have lost factory jobs, though in Ohio, assembly lines continue to add them.

The president’s tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico and the European Union — and those trading partners’ retaliation against the United States — are sapping manufacturers’ strength, economists said. Through August, Wisconsin companies’ exports to China of $822 million were 25 percent less than in the same period in 2018, according to the Census Bureau.

Charles Pierce observes Scott Walker’s Legacy of Getting Played by FoxConn Lives On:

Scott Walker …. has been particularly active both on the electric Twitter machine and in real life. He is running some operation to ensure that gerrymandering stays in place, and he’s also the head of the Young Americans for Freedom, that hoary old relic of the John Birch Society’s heyday. Meanwhile, back in America’s Dairyland, his most conspicuous legacy continues to be the biggest bag of magic beans ever sold to an allegedly sentient politician.

….

Foxconn has been playing Wisconsin like a ten-cent yo-yo ever since Walker showed up at the company’s doorstep with the state’s economy in his mouth, like a beagle who’s brought home a rabbit. Last February, the company floated a story that even the main campus was in doubt, announcing that plans had changed and that a smaller facility might be built. This, as MarketWatch informed us a couple of years ago, is Foxconn’s general M.O.

But the details are important, given Gou’s history of making and breaking promises in numerous countries and regions over the years, including in the U.S. A pledge to invest $30 million in a factory in central Pennsylvania in 2013 was also greeted with much ballyhoo, as reported by the Washington Post.…

 How To Use Apple Pay:

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of forty-one.  Sunrise is 7:26 AM and sunset 5:50 PM, for 10h 24m 54s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 2.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1929, America experiences a devastating Wall Street crash.

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  John Hudson, Karoun Demirjian, and Mike DeBonis report House to take first vote on impeachment inquiry of Trump, forcing lawmakers on record:

The House will take its first vote on the impeachment inquiry of President Trump on Thursday, forcing lawmakers to go on record in support or opposition of the investigation and dictating the rules for its next phase.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Monday that the vote would “affirm” the existing probe, now in its sixth week, and establish which hearings would be open and how the transcripts from witnesses who have already testified in closed sessions would be released. Pelosi said the vote also would grant due process to the president and his attorney, countering a repeated criticism by Trump that he has been treated unfairly.

“We are taking this step to eliminate any doubt as to whether the Trump administration may withhold documents, prevent witness testimony, disregard duly authorized subpoenas, or continue obstructing the House of Representatives,” Pelosi said in a letter to Democrats. “Nobody is above the law.”

Nuria Marquez Matrtinez reports ICE Is Rushing to Open For-Profit Detention Centers—Right Before California’s Ban Goes Into Effect:

Five days after California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a strict ban on for-profit prisons and immigrant detention centers, Immigration and Customs Enforcement quietly posted a solicitation notice for three new detention facilities in California—a move that advocates are calling a discreet attempt to open up new privately run facilities before the law goes into effect at the start of next year.

ICE is asking for “turnkey ready” facilities near San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles for “the exclusive use of ICE and the ICE detainee population,” according to documents posted on the Federal Business Opportunities (FBO) website on October 16. (When ICE seeks a new contract, the search has to go through a public bidding process.) The facilities would be used to “provide housing, medical care, transportation, guard services, meals, and the day to day needs for ICE detainees,” the documents say. As the Palm Springs Desert Sun first reported, ICE is looking to house up to 6,750 detainees in the facilities.

….

State legislator Rob Bonta, a Bay Area Democrat who wrote the original bill, said ICE is trying to exploit that loophole. “Everything about this is gaming the system,” he said. If ICE rushes to sign a contract before January 1, Bonta noted, the new facility would operate for at least five years. And even though the new law explicitly prevents any contract renewals, the FBO notice states that the contracts have two five-year extension options.

 Quantum supremacy: A three minute guide:

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of forty-five.  Sunrise is 7:24 AM and sunset 5:52 PM, for 10h 27m 33s of daytime.  The moon is new with 0.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Urban Forestry Commission meets at 4:30 PM, and the Whitewater Unified School District’s board meets at 6:30 PM in closed session, with an open session beginning at 7 PM. 

On this day in 1886, Pres. Cleveland presides over the dedication of the Statue of Liberty.

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Nicholas Fandos and Michael S. Schmidt report Moving Closer to Trump, Impeachment Inquiry Faces Critical Test:

House impeachment investigators are speeding toward new White House barriers meant to block crucial testimony and evidence from the people who are closest to President Trump — obstacles that could soon test the limits of Democrats’ fact finding a month into their inquiry.

What has been a rapidly moving investigation securing damning testimony from witnesses who have defied White House orders may soon become a more arduous effort. Investigators are now trying to secure cooperation from higher-ranking advisers who can offer more direct accounts of Mr. Trump’s actions but are also more easily shielded from Congress.

Democrats are likely to face the first such roadblock on Monday, when one of Mr. Trump’s closest advisers is expected to defy a subpoena as he awaits a federal court to determine whether he can speak with impeachment investigators. But others could soon follow, legal experts and lawmakers say, forcing Democratic leaders toward a consequential choice: Try to force cooperation through the courts or move on to begin making an argument for impeachment in public.

Craig Gilbert observes The white blue-collar vote is seen as Trump’s base in Wisconsin. But it’s actually divided into multiple parts:

“Blue-collar white” has become shorthand for the Trump vote.

But as voluminous polling on Trump in Wisconsin makes clear, white blue-collar voters are far from a uniform bloc.

While they were the primary force behind Trump’s 2016 victory in this state, they have been very divided over his performance in office.

Since he entered the White House, Trump’s approval rating with blue-collar whites of all ages in Wisconsin is only slightly more positive than negative: 50% approve, 45% disapprove, combining more than three years of surveys by the Marquette University Law School. That is a little worse than Trump’s numbers with this same demographic group in national polls.

The Marquette polling shows Trump’s standing among non-college whites varies dramatically by gender, age, marital status and religion – many of the chief dividing lines in modern politics.

In fact, Trump’s true demographic base in Wisconsin is not blue-collar white voters collectively, but blue-collar white men, and — above all — blue-collar white evangelicals, who support him overwhelmingly.

Among many other segments of the blue-collar white vote, opinions of the Trump presidency are either evenly divided (as they are among married women and mainline Protestants), or negative (as they are among unmarried women and non-religious voters).

Politics of Pot: The new marijuana law in Illinois:

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of fifty-seven.  Sunrise is 7:23 AM and sunset 5:53 PM, for 10h 30m 11s of daytime.  The moon is new with 0.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1961, America successfully tests the first Saturn rocket, the Saturn I SA-1:

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Isabel V. Sawhill and Christopher Pulliam write Amend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for more inclusive growth and better jobs:

The centerpiece of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) [Trump tax bill] was cutting the corporate rate from 35 to 21 percent. Supporters argued that this would make the United States a more competitive place for business, leading to more economic growth and higher wages. So far, there is little evidence that the law has had such effects.

….

A profit-sharing tax credit could be implemented by reforming Section 162(m) of the internal revenue code. Before TCJA, 162(m) allowed the deductibility of executive pay above $1 million only if it was performance-based. After TCJA, all executive pay above $1 million is nondeductible (although it is now subject to the lower corporate rate of 21 percent). This provision could be further amended to provide a partial credit based on the portion of profits companies share with all employees up to some salary or compensation cap. Effectively, this would levy corporate or business taxes on the share of profits retained by shareholders and owners, encouraging more companies to treat their workers as part of the team that produced the profits in the first place. Such a credit could be paid for by raising the corporate rate back to some more reasonable level, such as 25 percent.

….

One important reason to engage businesses in achieving more inclusive growth is the unpopularity of the hefty taxes and transfers needed to achieve the goal without a shift in market incomes. A second reason is that receiving a larger paycheck, rather than a government benefit, contributes to a sense of self-respect and dignity tied to the value of work. To substantially reduce inequality without breaking the bank, we need to raise market incomes for those feeling left behind. To be clear, none of this is an argument for not redistributing in response to unparalleled inequality; it is an argument for not relying solely on redistribution to produce more inclusive growth.

More broadly shared growth may be essential to our democracy’s health. The public is feeling increasingly alienated with how the economy is now working; fewer than half of young adults have a positive view of capitalism. At a time when even American business calls for an update to capitalism, maybe our business tax code could use one too. Let’s amend the TCJA in ways consistent with the Business Roundtable’s new emphasis on stakeholder, as opposed to shareholder, capitalism. Will it work? There are no guarantees. But the alternative might be the end of capitalism and democracy as we have known them.

On Witch Watch at Castle Halloween Museum:

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will see occasional afternoon showers with a high of fifty-two.  Sunrise is 7:22 AM and sunset 5:55 PM, for 10h 32m 51s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 3.8% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1881, it’s a gunfight at the O.K. Corral.

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Philip Bump writes The U.S. deficit hit $984 billion in 2019, soaring during Trump era:

The U.S. government’s budget deficit ballooned to nearly $1 trillion in 2019, the Treasury Department announced Friday, as the United States’ fiscal imbalance widened for a fourth consecutive year despite a sustained run of economic growth. The deficit grew $205 billion, or 26 percent, in the past year.

The country’s worsening fiscal picture runs in sharp contrast to President Trump’s campaign promise to eliminate the federal debt within eight years. The deficit is up nearly 50 percent in the Trump era. Since taking office, Trump has endorsed big spending increases and steered most Republicans to abandon the deficit obsession they held during the Obama administration.

In 2011, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives pushed to pass a constitutional amendment that would require balanced budgets. And the Obama administration created a deficit commission looking for ways to slow the growth of government debt. But those efforts have fallen away, and budget experts believe the country will see trillion-dollar annual deficits far into the future.

Benjamin Wittes describes The Collapse of the President’s Defense:

President Trump’s substantive defense against the ongoing impeachment inquiry has crumbled entirely—not just eroded or weakened, but been flattened like a sandcastle hit with a large wave.

It was never a strong defense. After all, Trump himself released the smoking gun early in L’Affaire Ukrainienne when the White House published its memo of Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. That document erased any question as to whether Trump had asked a foreign head of state to “investigate”—a euphemism for digging up dirt on—his political opponents. There was no longer any doubt that he had asked a foreign country to violate the civil liberties of American citizens by way of interfering in the coming presidential campaign. That much we have known for certain for weeks.

The clarity of the evidence did not stop the president’s allies from trying to fashion some semblance of defense. But the past few days of damaging testimony have stripped away the remaining fig leaves. There was no quid pro quo, we were told—except that it’s now clear that there was one. If there was a quid pro quo, we were told, it was the good kind of quid pro quo that happens all the time in foreign relations—except that, we now learn, it wasn’t that kind at all but the very corrupt kind instead. The Ukrainians didn’t even know that the president was holding up their military aid, we were told—except that, it turns out, they did know. And, the president said, it was all about anti-corruption. This was the most Orwellian inversion; describing such a corrupt demand as a request for an investigation of corruption is a bit like describing a speakeasy as an alcoholism treatment facility.

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