FREE WHITEWATER

Economy

Daily Bread for 4.26.25: Consumer Sentiment Falls, and Web Searches for Economic Calamity Rise

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 59. Sunrise is 5:55 and sunset is 7:50, for 13 hours, 54 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 2.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1954, the first clinical trials of Jonas Salk‘s polio vaccine begin in Fairfax County, Virginia.


Two charts tell the tale of Americans’ economic concerns:

See Alex Harring, Americans are getting flashbacks to 2008 as tariffs stoke recession fears, CNBC, April 26, 2025.

When sentiment declines, it’s understandable that Americans would look for examples of other difficult times.

For modern Whitewater, the Great Recession’s influence is the key to understanding both economics and politics in the city. It is Whitewater’s signal modern event. Those difficult years from 2007-2009 led to an aftermath that still afflicts the city.

The failure of local officials and community leaders during that time was astonishing: the boosters1 wanted to deflect past others’ suffering, the special-interest men diverted valuable resources to their own schemes while Whitewater stayed poor2, the center-left grew but still struggles to land a decisive blow3, and the rightwing populists4 now in the city owe their present role as a faction to forces they can’t or won’t grasp.

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  1. Narrow of mind and small of heart. See the FREE WHITEWATER category on Boosterism. ↩︎
  2. Avaricious schemers failing time and again to match the accomplishments of the generation before them. See the FREE WHITEWATER category on Special Interests. ↩︎
  3. It does no good to talk to a hyena in a soft voice hoping that the vile creature will give up meat for vegetables. See Wisconsin Senate Democrats Hope Hyenas Will Stop Eating Meat. ↩︎
  4. An authoritarian populist movement of recrimination and revenge. See Defining Populism. ↩︎

Hubble views of Mars and more for space telecope’s 35th anniversary:

The NASA/ESA Hubble Space Telescope is celebratiing 35 years in space. See images of Mars, planetary nebula NGC 2899, Rosette Nebula and galaxy NGC 5335 to celebrate.

Daily Bread for 4.18.25: Tariffs Will Make Wisconsin’s Manufacturing Decline Harder to Reverse

Good morning.

Good Friday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 73. Sunrise is 6:08 and sunset is 7:41, for 13 hours, 33 minutes of daytime. The moon a waning gibbous with 73.1 percent of its visible disk illuminated.


On this day in 1938,  Superman debuts in Action Comics #1 (cover dated June 1938).


Tariffs are supposed to be the cure for manufacturing. They won’t be:

Wisconsin manufacturers and farmers rely on exports, but the value of the goods they sell abroad has fallen over the last decade. And new U.S. tariffs could make it harder for them to reverse that trend, especially in the short term.

That’s according to a new report released Thursday by the Wisconsin Policy Forum looking at state exports in the wake of what it calls the “most expansive U.S. tariffs in generations.” The report examined what goods produced in Wisconsin sell to international markets, who buys those products and where in the state they come from.

Manufacturing and agriculture play an “outsized role” in the state’s economy, but many of those businesses have had a “bumpy ride” so far this year with the expanded use of tariffs, the report said. As of 2023, nearly 19 percent of the state’s private sector jobs were in manufacturing, according to the report. In 2022, the value of Wisconsin’s agricultural sales was the 10th highest in the country.

….

The report warns tariffs could negatively affect Wisconsin exporters by forcing trade partners to respond with their own tariffs on American products, making them more expensive. 

“When we think about what it is we’re exporting, a lot of these heavy machines are long-term investments that are very expensive,” Byrnes said. “When you change the price by 10 or 20 percent, that may be millions of dollars. That’s something that a purchaser on the other side of the tariff barrier will have to consider.”

See Joe Schulz, New report highlights importance of exports for Wisconsin manufacturers, farmers
Trump tariffs will make it harder for Wisconsin to reverse decade of export value declines in the short term, Wisconsin Public Radio, April 17, 2025.

See also Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy, Wisconsin Policy Forum, April 17, 2025:

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Tariffs are taxes, they’ll not boost manufacturing as we’ve not the labor pool for a boost, and they’ll risk the manufacturing exports Wisconsin now has. See also Federal Planning for Manufacturing Isn’t Planning at All (“We don’t have enough workers for the jobs that we have, let alone if we want to grow a job (field),” [president of the business lobbying group Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Kurt] Bauer with WMC said. “This is a significant challenge.”) and The Anti-Tax Crowd Backed a Taxman.


Hubble spies 9.5 light-year bit of the amazing Eagle Nebula:

The Hubble Space Telescope has caputured new imagery of 9.5 light-years tall portion the Eagle Nebula, located 7000 light-years distant from Earth.

Daily Bread for 4.16.25: Farmers, Part 2 (Slogans and Reality)

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 55. Sunrise is 6:11 and sunset is 7:38, for 13 hours, 28 minutes of daytime. The moon a waning gibbous with 89 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Parks & Recreation Board meets at 5:30 PM.


On this day in 2018,  The New York Times and the New Yorker win the Pulitzer Prize for Public Service for breaking news of the Harvey Weinstein sexual abuse scandal.


Yesterday’s post, Farmers, cited reporting on the effects of a trade war on farmers. Trump is aware of these concerns, and so he used his Truth Social platform to publish his position on a trade war’s effects on agriculture. Below are Trump’s remarks contrasted with real experiences.

Trump’s post:

Our farmers are GREAT, but because of their GREATNESS, they are always put on the Front Line with our adversaries, such as China, whenever there is a Trade negotiation or, in this case, a Trade War. The same thing happened in my First Term. China was brutal to our Farmers, I these Patriots to just hold on, and a great trade deal was made. I rewarded our farmers with a payment of $28 Billion Dollars, all through the China deal. It was a great transaction for the USA, until Crooked Joe Biden came in and didn’t enforce it. China largely reneged on the deal (although they behaved during the Trump Administration), only buying a portion of what they agreed to buy. They had ZERO respect for the Crooked Biden Administration, and who can blame them for that? Interestingly, they just reneged on the big Boeing deal, saying that they will “not take possession” of fully committed to aircraft. The USA will PROTECT OUR FARMERS!!!

The farmer John Pihl’s genuine experience with Trump’s subsidies:

The payments were helpful, Pihl said. But they weren’t a fix for the longer-term damage done by Trump’s first-term tariffs.

“That was just for the one year. What about the market loss that continued through his term and into Biden’s term? I think the amount is incredible,” he said.

Of Trump’s remarks:

  1. The greatness of farmers has not made them targets; Trump’s trade war has done that.
  2. As lifetime farmer John Pihl explains above, Trump’s deal in his first term did not make farmers whole, and that deal was insufficient on its own, apart from the Biden Admin. See also Adriana Belmonte, Trump’s massive farmer bailout failed to make up for the ‘self-inflicted’ trade damage, January 18, 2021. (Trump’s bailout was a failure even before Biden took office.)
  3. Trump claims that China has ‘behaved’ during his administration, but he admits in his post that (a) they’ve hit back at Boeing and (b) China has applied huge retaliatory tariffs across the board.

Meanwhile, here’s how ordinary Chinese are depicting the Trump Admin:

Even ordinary TikTok users on the other side of the world have Trumpism’s number.

One can and should oppose the Chinese government without stumbling into an inflationary trade war.


Meanwhile, where did Trump get all those gaudy gold appliqués with which he’s littered the Oval Office? Trump’s vulgar additions are surprisingly similar to what the Chinese sell on Alibaba:

Daily Bread for 4.15.25: Farmers

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 50. Sunrise is 6:12 and sunset is 7:37, for 13 hours, 25 minutes of daytime. The moon a waning gibbous with 94 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.


On this day in 1922, U.S. Senator John B. Kendrick of Wyoming introduces a resolution calling for an investigation of a secret land deal, which leads to the discovery of the Teapot Dome scandal.


Farmers in the rural Midwest and across America will feel the consequences of Trump’s trade war:

Tariffs are making life more expensive for John Pihl. He’s been farming in Northern Illinois for more than 50 years.

“These tariffs are going to affect everything. It’ll affect our parts — it’s just across the board. Which is going to hurt everything,” he said.

Not only do tariffs affect the cost of farm supplies, but they also raise the risk of retaliation against exports of U.S. crops: a double-whammy for farmers like Pihl.

“It’s a good way to lose your customers,” he said. “And I think we’ll probably lose more on this round too, because I know that Mexico is our biggest importer of corn. But this time, they may figure out that they can get corn from South America just as easily as from the U.S.”

….

All told, the first Trump administration spent $28 billion bailing out farmers. This time around, the tariffs are much higher than they were six years ago, and it’s unclear how long they will persist.

NPR asked the White House for details on what relief is under consideration this time, but received no response.

The payments were helpful, Pihl said. But they weren’t a fix for the longer-term damage done by Trump’s first-term tariffs.

“That was just for the one year. What about the market loss that continued through his term and into Biden’s term? I think the amount is incredible,” he said.

See Danielle Kurtzleben, China put steep tariffs on U.S. exports. Farmers are worried, NPR, April 12, 2025.

But it’s all fake news, right? These consequences for can’t be true, can they? Mr. Trump has a plan, of course he does. (He had a plan before each of his six business bankruptcies, didn’t he?)

Come for the culture war, stay for the inflationary trade war.


Elephants huddle in ‘alert circle’ to protect young during California earthquake:

Elephants formed an ‘alert circle’ to protect their young after a 5.2 magnitude earthquake in southern California. Video footage from the San Diego zoo safari park showed elephants instinctively circling their young, as soon as they felt the earthquake on 14 April

Daily Bread for 4.14.25: Federal Planning for Manufacturing Isn’t Planning at All

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 59. Sunrise is 6:14 and sunset is 7:36, for 13 hours, 22 minutes of daytime. The moon a waning gibbous with 98 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Plan and Architectural Review Commission meets at 6 PM.


On this day in 1958, the Soviet satellite Sputnik 2 falls from orbit after a mission duration of 162 days. This was the first spacecraft to carry a living animal, a female dog named Laika, who likely lived only a few hours.


One of the justifications for tariffs is to bring back manufacturing to states like Wisconsin. It’s ill-considered:

But one of the biggest barriers to bringing manufacturing back, both in Wisconsin and nationally, is a labor shortage. 

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reportsthe latest data show there were around 1.2 million more jobs open nationally than there were unemployed workers. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has had more openings than job seekers since 2021.

Over the last decade, [founder of the Florida-based Reshoring Initiative Harry] Moser said employers have told him the U.S. labor market is “weak, both in terms of quantity of people and quality of people.” He said there have been efforts in recent years that have helped some, pointing to high school apprenticeship programs. He says Trump’s goal of bringing manufacturing back hinges on workforce.

….

In Wisconsin, a 2023 research report from WMC found the state’s median age was older than the rate nationally, and warned if the population doesn’t grow at a faster rate, workforce shortages would worsen.

“We don’t have enough workers for the jobs that we have, let alone if we want to grow a job (field),” [president of the business lobbying group Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce Kurt] Bauer with WMC said. “This is a significant challenge.” 

See Joe Schulz, Trump says tariffs will bring back manufacturing, but Wisconsin’s labor shortage may stand in the way, Wisconsin Public Radio, April 14, 2025.

One hears talk in Whitewater on recruiting for manufacturing before any other priority. It’s more a diversionary tactic than anything else; these gentlemen are simply looking for something, however implausible, to shift the conversion.


Tariffs for Semiconductors Forthcoming:

Daily Bread for 4.11.25: Clueless and Cowed

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 53. Sunrise is 6:19 and sunset is 7:33, for 13 hours, 14 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 98.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1945, American forces liberate the Buchenwald concentration camp:

A detachment of troops of the U.S. 9th Armored Infantry Battalion, from the 6th Armored Division, part of the U.S. Third Army, and under the command of Captain Frederic Keffer, arrived at Buchenwald on 11 April 1945 at 3:15 p.m. (now the permanent time of the clock at the entrance gate). The soldiers were given a hero’s welcome, with the emaciated survivors finding the strength to toss some liberators into the air in celebration.

Later in the day, elements of the U.S. 83rd Infantry Division overran Langenstein, one of a number of smaller camps comprising the Buchenwald complex. There, the division liberated over 21,000 prisoners, ordered the mayor of Langenstein to send food and water to the camp, and hurried medical supplies forward from the 20th Field Hospital.


We hear so much from this rightwing party, from its leaders and activists across the nation, state, and city about low taxes. And yet, and yet, they supported the leader who said time and again that he would raise tariffs. These tariffs are taxes on Americans. Across Wisconsin, the Congressional Republicans who’d scream and squeal at the very mention of taxes are now silent:

A handful of Republicans on Capitol Hill are pushing to give Congress more oversight over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, but Wisconsin’s Republicans are not among them. 

In interviews with the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the state’s GOP delegation largely dismissed questions about legislative oversight, instead praising the president for imposing the levies — some of which were temporarily paused this week — on scores of foreign trading partners.

Sen. Ron Johnson, the only member of the delegation to publicly express concerns over the tariffs, on Thursday predicted measures aimed at giving Congress a bigger role in the tariff process would fail. And Wisconsin’s House members stood in line with Trump’s moves this week that have shaken global markets. 

“I like the way it’s playing out, actually,” Rep. Scott Fitzgerald said Tuesday, when asked if Congress should play an oversight role on the implementation of the tariffs. “I think after a couple days, it’s playing out pretty well.”

See Lawrence Andrea, Wisconsin Republicans silent on tariff oversight as colleagues push for Congress to have a say, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, April 11, 2025.

Fitzgerald: not merely ignorant, but confidently proud of it.

Note well: At no time, over these many years, have any economic concerns that I have expressed at FREE WHITEWATER ever been about my situation; this libertarian blogger has no personal complaints to make. (Nor would I make them here, even if I had any.)

It’s simply the case that so very many loud & proud anti-tax men are silent on tariffs (being too ignorant or too hypocritical to admit how destructive they are).


World’s oldest gorilla celebrates 68th birthday at Berlin zoo:

Fatou, the world’s oldest gorilla, was presented with a basket full of fruits and vegetables as she celebrated her 68th birthday at the Berlin zoo.

Daily Bread for 4.4.25: Is Hyperlocal Politics Finally Dead?

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 50. Sunrise is 6:31 and sunset is 7:25, for 12 hours, 54 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 45.1 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1865, a day after Union forces capture Richmond, Virginia, President Lincoln visits the Confederate capital.


In this last generation, Whitewater, Wisconsin has felt the effects of national calamities: the Great Recession, a pandemic, an insurrection, and now a trade war.

In each case, a small group of local men and women carried on as though local affairs were paramount1; in each case, they did so while conditions in the city grew worse from those national calamities.

Now comes another calamity, and with it a few likelihoods.

Those who supported the authoritarian movement that made a pandemic worse, inspired an insurrection, the return to power of a would-be king, and now a global economic crisis will never admit that they were wrong. Never. They wanted this and they will continue to want this, all of it.

Those who cannot see past Townline Road won’t develop broader horizons. It’s all roads, press releases, and sanewashing with that crew. They’ll keep thinking that if you talk to a hyena in a soft voice that foul creature will give up meat for vegetables. They’d probably keep thinking this even as that carnivore crunched on the nearest human femur2.

There are, however, many more residents in this city, in this state, and this nation who will stand opposed to wholesale ruin.

Of that ruin, there are months and years of damage3 ahead, with this only a portion:

Is “recession” now spelled T-A-R-I-F-F? 

Markets were gripped by the recession trade after President Trump’s tariffs on Wednesday threatened a global trade war. Treasury yields, stock futures and the dollar all plunged.

This isn’t mere market hyperbole. Thursday was only the sixth time in history that the S&P 500 had fallen more than 4% while the dollar also fell more than 1%—with investors shocked that the greenback had failed in its usual role as a safe haven.

The carnage in the markets might be just the beginning: If the biggest U.S. tax rise since at least the 1950s causes the economy to shrink, stocks and Treasury yields still have a long way to go down.

As recessions take hold, stocks are hit both by lower earnings and by lower valuations, as spending falls and savers switch to safer assets. Defensive stocks better able to maintain sales—such as sellers of food and other household staples—beat those selling optional purchases such as luxury goods and cars, known as cyclicals.

See James Mackintosh, Market Upheaval From Trump’s Tariffs Could Be Just the Beginning, Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2025.

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  1. By contrast, this libertarian blogger has argued that the betterment of the city comes from applying the best of the nation. See FREE WHITEWATER, ‘How Many Rights for Whitewater?’, ‘What Standards for Whitewater?’, and ‘Methods, Standards, Goals’ (2013). ↩︎
  2. The last words of these sad types would likely be along the lines of ‘but I tried to be bipartisan!’ ↩︎
  3. The greater losses have been and will be to individual rights. ↩︎

We’ll have more than egg prices to worry about:

See Matt Grossman, Near-Term Inflation Expectations Surge, Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2025.

Daily Bread for 4.3.25: Adding Another Threat for the Nation, State, and City

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 50. Sunrise is 6:33 and sunset is 7:23, for 12 hours, 51 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 34.6 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Public Arts Commission meets at 5 PM, and the Whitewater Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1865,  Union forces capture Richmond, the capital of the Confederacy.


In October, writing about the scariest things in Whitewater for the year, this libertarian blogger listed the two worst threats to the city as special interests and nativism. Later, in February, I wrote that there was now only one notable kind of conservative in Whitewater, as only the conservative populists matter politically (‘a conservative might imagine himself as something else (a traditionalist or a deal-maker), and might be something else, but only in his house or in his head’).

There’s one more threat to add to the list, brought about by the same movement that is responsible for the other three: A third global recession in 20 years looms.

There’s always someone who thinks that this predatory movement will see the error of its ways. It won’t, not now, not ever. It may lose its grip on the nation, but it will fall to a majority of others outside that movement to turn it aside.

Those who’ve gone this far, these dead-enders, will never repent of the their conduct, of the damage they’ve caused others.

On the contrary, they’ve never been more assured, more self-justified, than now.


The most conservative justice on the Wisconsin Supreme Court — she isseems upset:

Daily Bread for 3.26.25: Consumer Confidence Plummets

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 53. Sunrise is 6:47 and sunset is 7:14, for 12 hours, 28 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 11.3 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 2024, the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapses following a collision between the MV Dali container ship and one of the bridge’s support pillars, killing 6 people.


The last election was never about egg or gas prices, but for those who think it was, well, Americans’ confidence in the economy’s future is plummeting:

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. consumer confidence continued its sharp 2025 decline as Americans’ views about their financial futures slumped to a 12-year low, driven by rising anxiety over tariffs and inflation.

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, the fourth straight monthly decline and its lowest reading since January of 2021. The reading was short of analysts expectations for a reading of 94.5, according to a survey by FactSet.

The business group found that the measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for income, business and the job market fell 9.6 points to 65.2. 

That’s the lowest reading in 12 years and well below the threshold of 80, which the Conference Board says can signal a potential recession in the near future. The proportion of U.S. consumers anticipating a recession remains at a nine-month high, the board reported.

See Matt Ott, Consumer confidence is sliding as Americans’ view of their financial futures slumps to a 12-year low, Associated Press, March 25, 2025.

Come for the egg prices, stay for the declining economy under an authoritarian federal government.


Family rescues dog moments before tornado blows through:

Daily Bread for 3.24.25: Retaliatory Tariffs Target Wisconsin Industries

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 45. Sunrise is 6:50 and sunset is 7:12, for 12 hours, 22 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 28.7 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Urban Forestry Commission meets at 5:30 PM and the Police and Fire Commission at 6 PM.

On this day in 1603,  Tokugawa Ieyasu is granted the title of shogun from Emperor Go-Yozei, and establishes the Tokugawa shogunate in Edo, Japan.


Sowing, reaping:

Farm and construction equipment manufacturers started the year with high hopes for the economy, bolstered by President Donald Trump’s campaign promises to cut taxes on domestic producers and slash government regulations.

But that optimism has given way to fears of a possible recession, sparked by Trump’s international trade war, said Kip Eideberg, senior vice president for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a national trade group based in West Allis.

“If we are dragged or pushed into a recession as a result of the tit for tat tariffs, that’s a whole ’nother level of pain,” he said. “That’s the biggest fear right now.”

….

China, Canada and the European Union plan to hit Wisconsin’s two largest industries, agriculture and manufacturing, with retaliatory tariffs. The moves come in response to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum and his broader threats and use of tariffs.

Almost 10 percent of Wisconsin’s jobs — or nearly 300,000 — were in industries those countries are targeting. That’s the largest share of any state in the country, according to an analysis from The New York Times

See Joe Schulz, Retaliatory tariffs target Wisconsin’s top industries, Wisconsin Public Radio, March 21, 2025.

From the New York Times, here’s the portion of the story to which the WPR story refers:

Rural parts of the country are once again at risk from retaliation. Agriculture is a major U.S. export and farmers are politically important to Mr. Trump. And rural counties may have one major employer — like a poultry processing plant — that provides a big share of the county’s jobs, compared with urban or suburban areas that are more diversified.

The retaliatory tariffs target industries employing 9.5 percent of people in Wisconsin, 8.5 percent of people in Indiana and 8.4 percent of people in Iowa. The shares are also relatively high in Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky and Kansas.

See Lazaro Gamio and Ana Swanson, Trade War Retaliation Will Hit Trump Voters Hardest, New York Times, March 15, 2025.


Why humans have puzzle-shaped cells:

The shapes of these cells are puzzling. They have wavy edges and protrusions and fit together a bit like puzzle pieces. But what is it for? New research looking at the lymph capillary cells, found throughout human tissues, has determined how exactly these tiny vessels are able to let fluid and immune cells pass through between them while also being strong enough to resist rupturing under pressure. Their unusual shape seems to be key…

Daily Bread for 3.11.25: Doubling Down on Ignorant Economics

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 53. Sunrise is 7:13 and sunset is 6:57, for 11 hours, 44 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 93.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Public Works Committee meets at 5 PM.

On this day in 1941, President Roosevelt signs the Lend-Lease Act into law, allowing American-built war supplies to be shipped to the Allies on loan.


Monday in America: The Rapidly Declining Economic Climate.

Tuesday in America:

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will double his planned tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% for Canada, escalating a trade war with the United States’ northern neighbor and showing an indifference to recent stock market turmoil and rising recession risks.

Trump said on social media that the increase of the tariffs set to take effect on Wednesday is a response to the price increases that the provincial government of Ontario put on electricity sold to the United States.

“I have instructed my Secretary of Commerce to add an ADDITIONAL 25% Tariff, to 50%, on all STEEL and ALUMINUM COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES FROM CANADA, ONE OF THE HIGHEST TARIFFING NATIONS ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD,” Trump posted Tuesday on Truth Social.

After a brutal stock market selloff on Monday and further jitters Tuesday, Trump faces increased pressure to show he has a legitimate plan to grow the economy instead of perhaps pushing it into a recession. But so far the president is doubling down on the tariffs he talked up repeatedly during the 2024 campaign and throwing a once stable economy into utter turmoil as investors expected him to lead with deregulation and tax cuts instead of colossal tax hikes.

See Josh Boak, Rob Gillies, and Michelle Price, Trump doubles planned tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% as trade war intensifies, Associated Press, March 11, 2025.

Update, 3.12.25: Only hours later on Tuesday, Trump reversed course. (Trump defines decisive down.)

The reporting is sound: tariffs do act as tax hikes, and Trump’s tariffs will be, in effect, colossal tax hikes on consumers and businesses. All America will feel them.


See Firefly’s Blue Ghost moon lander drill, vacuum and deploy electrodes:

The Firefly Aerospace Blue Ghost moon lander has begun its work on the moon using its drill, vacuum and electrodes. Blue Ghost has drilled into surface to determine heat flow from interior of Moon. It has deployed four tethered Lunar Magnetotelluric Sounder (LMS) electrodes and an 8-foot mast to study the deep interior of the moon. Also, it’s Lunar PlanetVac collects lunar soil and more using pressurized nitrogen gas.

Daily Bread for 3.10.25: The Rapidly Declining Economic Climate

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 66. Sunrise is 7:15 and sunset is 6:55, for 11 hours, 41 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 87.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Plan & Architectural Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 2017, the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye of South Korea in response to a major political scandal is unanimously upheld by the country’s Constitutional Court, ending her presidency.


Whitewater is in Wisconsin, and Wisconsin is in America. The economic outlook for America is in decline. Whitewater will not escape national and state trends.

A man with six business bankruptcies now won’t rule out a recession in 2025:

“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said when pressed about the possibility of a recession during a recorded interview that aired on “Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo.”

….

The rosy economic outlook that greeted Trump’s return to the White House has dimmed in recent weeks. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in February, boosted by firings in the public sector. And consumer confidence fellby the most in any given month since August 2021. 

American consumers share concerns that tariffs will raise prices on everyday goods, while corporate CEOs are eager for clarity as the president has continually announced and then rolled back new tariff packages. His moves last week, levying and then delaying 25 percent tariffs on a major chunk of Mexican and Canadian goods until April, are just the latest example. The confusion has sent markets scrambling. The S&P 500 fell by more than 3 percent on the week.

See Gregory Svirnovskiy, Trump won’t rule out a recession in 2025, POLITICO, March 9, 2025.

The conservative populists have no sound grasp of economics, as theirs is a movement of cultural revenge, not economics. Trump’s first term was an economic failure, yet many of them delusionally imagine him as an economic guru.

Truth in advertising: Come for the culture war, stay for the recession.


Stocks take another tumble after Trump’s weekend comments on inflation:

Daily Bread for 1.8.25: Quick Update on Development Projects

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 21. Sunrise is 7:25 and sunset is 4:38, for 9 hours, 14 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 67.7 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Lakes Advisory Committee meets at 4:30 PM.

On this day in 1982,  Breakup of the Bell System begins as AT&T agrees to divest itself of twenty-two subdivisions.


For today, a quick update on two votes from the 1.7.25 Whitewater Common Council on development. I supported both proposals, but I’d say the Council’s votes (with 6 council members present) went as one would have expected. There were no genuine surprises, to my mind:

1. A 4-2 vote against the proposal of Premier Real Estate Management to purchase a 10.96 acre parcel of vacant land (Tax Parcel No. /A4444200001) owned by the City located on East Main Court to develop a 60-unit multi-family housing units on the property.

2. A 6-0 vote in favor of the proposal (letter of intent), for the Neumann-Hoffmann project, where the Neumann Companies will develop a significant residential project at a portion of Tax Parcel WUP 00324 lying north of the Hwy. 12 Bypass and a portion of Tax Parcel WUP 00325 lying north of the Hwy. 12 Bypass and east of Indian Mound Parkway on about 67 acres for 150 homes and 60 multifamily units.


Wisconsin Life | Art meets astronomy at revitalized Yerkes Observatory:

Dr. Amanda Bauer is reimagining the future of Yerkes Observatory in Williams Bay as a historic outpost for space exploration and future artistic collaboration.

Daily Bread for 1.7.25: Assorted Points on Development

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 23. Sunrise is 7:25 and sunset is 4:37, for 9 hours, 12 minutes of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 57 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater Common Council meets at 6:30 PM.

On this day in 1610,  Galileo Galilei makes his first written observation of the four Galilean moonsGanymedeCallistoIo and Europa, although he is not able to distinguish the last two until later.


For today, a few points about development in our city.

1. Tax Incremental Financing Done Right. (Pay As You Go, PayGo). One of the oddest changes in Whitewater’s political scene is hearing older men, who flacked tax incremental financing their way for years, suddenly declaring tax incremental financing undesirable when now done the right way. I’ve been a critic of Whitewater’s old way for years, and how it is strange it is to hear the men who implemented the old way now complaining about the right way. (In years past, Whitewater spent too much up front to attract a developer. PayGo eliminates that risk.)

What’s the right tax incremental policy that the city’s pursuing now? It’s pay as you go, where incentives are only offered incrementally as development takes place. That’s not a small difference — it’s a fundamental requirement of a good, long-term plan.

On 12.19.24 there was a discussion at the Whitewater Community Development Authority on tax incremental financing. At that meeting, a consultant to the city, Kristen Fish-Peterson, thoroughly answered questions about the city’s new approach. Her breadth of knowledge1 speaks for itself, with explanations (beginning at 14:12), on pay as you go incentives (14:17), up-front investment money from a developer (14:24), vetting of a developer’s plan (14:51), the developer’s need to meet a but-for test (15:54), and calculation of the details of a proposal (18:53). Fish-Peterson answered questions about the city’s method, each reply being sensible and satisfactory to a reasonable person. Even from the skeptical perspective of this libertarian blogger, this was good work. (If this isn’t good, then nothing in this town will ever be good.)

A story about our past: Over the years, people from outside the city have sometimes asked me about how development here was taking place. Typically, they were aware that Whitewater’s development was underperforming other communities. When I would describe how tax incremental financing was implemented in the city, where we had a failed tax incremental district, they reacted to that old approach the way someone would react to a flock of flying black hyenas2.

2. History & Purposes of Tax Incremental Financing. Residents may have heard, as I have heard, that tax incremental financing isn’t meant for residential projects. That’s false. Across America, for decades, communities in Wisconsin and beyond have used tax incremental financing for these very purposes. Whitewater is simply catching up with the rest of America and rest of Wisconsin. That a given person has never had apple pie does not mean that apple pie doesn’t exist, isn’t tasty, or isn’t enjoyed in communities across Wisconsin and America.3

3. More than One Housing Option Going Forward. There’s an argument that because of Whitewater’s current mix of housing, the city should have only one kind going forward. That’s both false (there’s a reason that successful private developers come to the city with a mix of options, because those options meet actual consumer demand) and the claim that the present necessarily constrains future options is often an incumbent’s ploy to prevent options that an incumbent wants to prevent. ‘No further growth except what I like‘ rather than what many want and need places the first-person singular ahead of the far larger plural.

Of course we can do more than one thing at a time, indeed, we need to do several things at the same time for any single endeavor to succeed. (No one says I’ll eat, but I won’t drink; I’ll buy food, but I won’t buy liquid. At least, no one says that for very long.)

4. Mutually Supporting Initiatives. The relationship between public and private (when public is done right) its mutually supportive and should be synergistic. When Whitewater shores up her fundamental public fire and police services, she makes the city more attractive to private businesses and future private residents. No private person wants to build in a city where, for example, her business will simply burn down. She’ll build where she has well-staffed departments to help safeguard her property. That’s a public expenditure for a private, community gain.

Like private markets, a successful municipal policy, cannot be based on a selective pitting of one program against another. Private market transactions involve myriad interactions. Buyer & seller isn’t a buyer & a seller, but hundreds of each leading to the goods and services behind that seemingly single transaction. Try to separate or impede a single exchange, and you’ll have no transaction at all. If Whitewater’s locked in a false opposition between some public and much greater private opportunity, her public services will have been ill-used.

5. Modification as Means of Prohibition. Sometimes people will say let’s chop this project apart: how ’bout half? (It’s usually people who have not taken the time to create or nurture a project that say this.) As it turns out, half an animal is usually a dead animal. Some people will propose division sincerely, others insincerely because they know it will lead to a project’s ruin.

The same is true for endless delays with a project. The late Fred Thompson, while starring in Days of Thunder, explained succinctly how delay sometimes leads to ruin.

6. Opportunity Goes Where It’s Welcome and Some Losses are Irrecuperable. Oh yes, both undoubtedly true. Wisconsin’s a big place, and America’s even bigger. Capital goes where it’s wanted. And, once it’s gone, the moment is gone, and it won’t (and will have no need) to come back. In a free society, later often means never4.


  1. It’s true, as someone said to me this week, that historically I have used the term ‘development man’ disparagingly in Whitewater, of those who for years pushed unsound ideas. Perhaps it’s time, these many years later, for the connotation to change. It’s not my field, but like a man who can tell the difference between a podiatrist who improves his patient’s gait and one who leaves his patient lame, there’s an evident difference. ↩︎
  2. That is, they reacted with shock and concern. ↩︎
  3. Apple pie does exist, it is tasty, and is enjoyed in many places. ↩︎
  4. You might have said hello, she might have invited you to table, you might have had coffee, you might have learned something in conversation, but how sad if she’s already walked out the door… ↩︎