FREE WHITEWATER

Economy

Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 8.23.24: The Federal Reserve Signals Rate Cuts

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of 79. Sunrise is 6:11, and sunset is 7:42, for 13h 31m 18s of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous with 79.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1775,  King George III delivers his Proclamation of Rebellion to the Court of St James’s stating that the American colonies have proceeded to a state of open and avowed rebellion.

Jeff Cox reports Fed Chair Powell indicates interest rate cuts ahead: ‘The time has come for policy to adjust’:

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid the groundwork Friday for interest rate cuts ahead, though he declined to provide exact indications on timing or extent.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” the central bank leader said in his much-awaited keynote address at the Fed’s annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Watch live: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks from Jackson Hole conference

With markets awaiting direction on where monetary policy is headed, Powell focused as much on a look back at what caused the inflation that led to an aggressive series of 13 rate hikes from March 2022 through July 2023.

However, he did note the progress on inflation and said the Fed can now turn its focus equally to other side of its dual mandate, namely to make sure the economy stays around full employment.

“Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic,” Powell said. “Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed.”

Good news, all around.

COVID-19 vaccines are updated and approved ahead of fall season:

City, Conflicts of Interest, Development, Economy, Local Government, Planning, Special Interests

Daily Bread for 8.13.24: Inflation Abates, Again

by  • 

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 81. Sunrise is 6:00, and sunset is 7:58, for 13h 57m 38s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 59.7 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1961, East Germany closes the border between the eastern and western sectors of Berlin to thwart its inhabitants’ attempts to escape to the West, and construction of the Berlin Wall is started. The day is known as Barbed Wire Sunday.

Update 8.14.24: Yesterday (below) was a post on wholesale inflation. Today, one sees that the consumer price index is also lower: Inflation Slipped to 2.9% in July, Lower Than Expected (‘CPI report likely seals case for the Fed to begin cutting interest rates at its next meeting’). Good news, all around.

Of wholesale inflation, Jeff Cox reports Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected:

A key measure of wholesale inflation rose less than expected in July, opening the door further for the Federal Reserve to start lowering interest rates.

The producer price index, which measures selling prices that producers get for goods and services, increased 0.1% on the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PPI was flat.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 0.2% on both the all-items and the core readings.

A further core measure that also excludes trade services showed a rise of 0.3%.

On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI increased 2.2%, a sharp drop from the 2.7% reading in June.

Inflation is abating, and growth is up, and in these improving conditions residents of both big cities and also small towns (like Whitewater!) have a chance to avoid the economic mistakes of the past (and those who made them).

Some of Whitewater’s special-interest men (from the 2000s and 2010s) are like declining athletes who should have retired from the game years ago. They stayed too long, and now can’t hit, can’t field, can’t circle the bases. Overweight and underpowered. They want to blame everyone else for their below-average performance. One wonders: why pretend it’s a major-league game with these minor-league banjo-hitters stumbling up to the plate?

Whitewater deserves better.

Daily Bread, Economy, Health, Kulturkampf, Opioids, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 8.7.24: Opioids Still a Top Wisconsin Concern

by  • 

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 78. Sunrise is 5:54, and sunset is 8:08, for 14h 12m 31s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 8.9 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1947, Thor Heyerdahl‘s balsa wood raft, the Kon-Tiki, smashes into the reef at Raroia in the Tuamotu Islands after a 101-day, 7,000 kilometres (4,300 mi) journey across the Pacific Ocean in an attempt to prove that pre-historic peoples could have traveled from South America

Christine Durrance, a professor in the La Follette School of Public Affairs at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, writes Wisconsin’s opioid crisis complicates an already troubled health care system (‘54% of respondents in UW-Madison survey report health care as quite or an extremely big problem for Wisconsin; 69% feel this way about health care being a problem for the country’):

Health care is the third most concerning issue during this presidential election year, according to WisconSays survey data collected as part of this year’s Main Street Agenda, which the La Follette School of Public Affairs at UW-Madison is using to highlight what matters to Wisconsin throughout 2024.

In this statewide representative survey, 54% of respondents report health care as quite or an extremely big problem for Wisconsin; 69% feel this way about health care being a problem for the country. These sentiments are felt across the state with 58% of Democrats and 54% of Republicans viewing it as quite a problem or an extremely big problem for the state. There is also little divide between urban (54%) and rural (53%) residents.

….

In 2022, more than 80,000 Americans died from opioids. It was the most deaths in a year due to the drug, and roughly four times the number of deaths attributed to opioids just a decade earlier. Nearly 1,500 Wisconsinites lost their lives to opioids in 2022, almost 20% more than just two years prior.  

The effects of the epidemic on our communities and health care system reach far beyond overdose mortality. One understudied aspect of the opioid crisis is its impact on women, infants, and children.

A hundred culture-war issues, pushed relentlessly, have only distracted from, but not alleviated, tens of thousands of yearly tragedies.

See also Society of Actuaries: Economic Cost of the Opioid Crisis.

Firefighters rescue deer on UW-Stevens Point campus:

Around 11 a.m. first responders were called to the University of Wisconsin – Stevens Pointr construction in Lot J.

Crews were able to restrain, secure, and free the deer from its predicament. 

America, Conflicts of Interest, Daily Bread, Economy, Local Government, New Whitewater, Self-Dealing

Daily Bread for 7.25.24: National GDP Grows Solidly at 2.8% for April-June Quarter (and the Question that Growth Presents for Whitewater)

by  • 

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 79. Sunrise is 5:40, and sunset is 8:22, for 14h 41m 27s of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous with 77.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1965,  Bob Dylan goes electric at the Newport Folk Festival, signaling a major change in folk and rock music.

There’s good national economic news this morning, as the U.S. economy grew 2.8% in second quarter, a robust strengthening:

The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly robust 2.8 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, capping two years of solid expansion, despite some signs of softening.

Gross domestic product for the quarter ending in June was double the 1.4 percent reading in the previous quarter, but reflects a general cool-down from last year’s brisk pace, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday morning.

“Economic growth is solid, not too hot and not too cold,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a financial research firm. “The soft patch we had at the beginning of the year has gone away and with it, the risks of a recession are dying on the vine.”

These impressive national growth numbers present Whitewater with a challenge:

Why would this beautiful town give time to the same tired, old-guard self-promoters who failed Whitewater in the 2010s? See about that time Whitewater’s Still Waiting for That Boom.

The enervated but agitated defenders of this city’s policymaking ‘tradition’ are simply the peddlers of excuses and lies.

Our next generation can — and already is — doing better for Whitewater.

Breaching whale capsizes boat:

A breaching whale landed on and capsized a boat Tuesday in Portsmouth Harbor, New Hampshire. Everyone, including the whale, was unharmed. See Whale surfaces, capsizes fishing boat off New Hampshire coast.

America, City, Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 7.11.24: U.S. Inflation Cools Again

by  • 

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 81. Sunrise is 5:27 and sunset 8:33 for 15h 05m 14s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 28.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1796, the United States takes possession of Detroit from Great Britain under terms of the Jay Treaty.

On this day in 1839, the first patent is issued to a Wisconsin resident:

Ebenezar G. Whiting of Racine was issued patent #1232 for his improved plow, the first patent issued to someone from Wisconsin. Whiting’s improvements consisted of making the mold-board straight and flat which, when united in the center with the curvilinear part of the mold-board, would require less power to drag through the dirt. Whiting went on to serve as Vice President of the J.I. Case Plow Company and received another patent for a steel plow in 1876.

Christopher Rugaber reports US inflation cools again, potentially paving way for Fed to cut interest rates soon:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation in the United States cooled in June for a third straight month, a sign that the worst price spike in four decades is steadily fading and may soon usher in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

In a better-than-expected report, consumer prices declined 0.1% from May to June after having remained flat the previous month, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the first monthly decline in overall inflation since May 2020, when the economy was paralyzed by the pandemic. 

And measured from one year earlier, prices were up 3% in June, cooler than the 3.3% annual rate in May.

The latest inflation readings will likely help convince the Fed’s policymakers that inflation is returning to its 2% target. A brief pickup in inflation early this year had caused the officials to scale back their expectations for interest rate cuts. The policymakers said they would need to see several months of mild price increases to feel confident enough enough to cut their key rate from its 23-year high. 

Whitewater has a chance to make gains in her community during these improving economic conditions. Yesteryear offers no answers for the city, save what not to do this time.

Closest massive black hole to Earth may be in Omega Centauri, Hubble finds:

Hubble Space Telescope observations of the Omega Centauri star cluster, about 18,000 light-years from Earth, has revealed evidence of an intermediate-size black hole.

America, City, Daily Bread, Economy, Employment

Daily Bread for 7.8.24: National Labor Market Adds 206,000 Jobs with Slight Rise in Unemployment

by  • 

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of 81. Sunrise is 5:25 and sunset 8:34 for 15h 09m 03s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 7.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Planning Board meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1776, church bells (possibly including the Liberty Bell) are rung after John Nixon delivers the first public reading of the Declaration of Independence of the United States.

On this day in 1850, James Jesse Strang Is Crowned King:

On this date, James Jesse Strang, leader of the estranged Mormon faction the Strangites, was crowned king; the only man to achieve such a title in America. When founder Joseph Smith was assassinated, Strang forged a letter from Smith dictating he was to be the heir. The Mormon movement split into followers of Strang and followers of Brigham Young. As he gained more followers (but never nearly as many as Brigham Young), Strang became comparable to a Saint, and in 1850 was crowned King James in a ceremony in which he wore a discarded red robe of a Shakespearean actor, and a metal crown studded with a cluster of stars as his followers sang him hosannas.

Soon after his crowning, he announced that Mormonism embraced and supported polygamy. (Young’s faction was known to have practiced polygamy, but had not at this time announced it publicly.) A number of followers lived in Walworth County, including Strang at a home in Burlington. In 1856 Strang was himself assassinated, leaving five wives. Without Strang’s leadership, his movement disintegrated. 

Josh Schafer reports US labor market adds 206,000 jobs, unemployment rate rises to 4.1%:

The US labor market added more jobs than expected in June while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, reaching its highest level since November 2021, another sign that the job market continues to cool.

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the US economy added 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in June, more than the 190,000 expected by economists.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 4% in the month prior and the highest reading in almost three years. June’s job additions were a slight decline from May, which saw job gains revised down on Friday to 218,000 from the 272,000 initially reported last month. 

The skill to take advange of job gains (and benefit the city still more if there should be interest rate cuts) will not be found among Whitewater’s self-promoting “action-oriented” types of fifteen or twenty years ago. The sooner the city turns away from their monkey shines the better.

Indeed, the work of that aged and addled cohort has been worse for the city, in concept and execution, than Monkey Shines the 1988 b-movie horror film:

It’s hard to estimate precisely, but a rough guess is that Whitewater would have been 179.6% better off with a killer monkey than that failed group from yesterday.

What is the rarest animal in the world? The 5 most-endangered species:

City, Daily Bread, Economy, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 6.21.24: Wisconsin Workers’ Average Pay Increases 5.3% Year Over Year

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday will be partly cloudy with a possibility of afternoon showers and a high of 88. Sunrise is 5:16 and sunset 8:37 for 15h 20m 19s of daytime. The moon is full with 99.8 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1944, Camp Janesville was established when 250 German POWs arrived in Rock County to help pick and can peas, tomatoes, and sweet corn. The camp was a small town of tents that housed guards and the POWs, many of them from the defeated Afrika Corps led by the “Desert Fox”, Field Marshall Rommel. Another 150 prisoners were assigned to a similar camp in Jefferson. The German POWs were primarily in their mid-20s. They were eventually transferred to an undisclosed camp on September 25, 1944.

On this day in 1945, the Battle of Okinawa ends when the organized resistance of Imperial Japanese Army forces collapses in the Mabuni area on the southern tip of the main island.

Wisconsin workers’ average pay — an average — increased significantly over the last year. David Clarey reports Wisconsin workers’ average pay jumps 5.3% from last year:

Wisconsin workers’ pay rose over 5% from a year ago at this time, slightly outpacing the national average, according to a new report.

The June 5 report from payroll company ADP shows that the median annual pay in Wisconsin in May reached $59,000, up 5.3% from a year ago. That slightly beat out the nationwide median pay of $58,300 and 5% increases.

ADP’s report uses salary data from about 10 million employees over a 12-month period to calculate the data, it said in a media release.

….

ADP’s figures are slightly higher than what USA TODAY reported in February. That report showed that the average annual salary in Wisconsin was $58,552.

The United States Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics reported its official statistics for May 2023 in April 2024. At that time, it said the annual average wage was $59,500 out of 2,885,990 workers in Wisconsin. Nationally, the annual average wage was $65,470.

These reported wage increases are averages, and ADP’s method is a private assessment. Even within Wisconsin, there are sure to be significant variations in employment levels and salary gains. Nonetheless, gains in individual and household incomes are a foundational measure of community prosperity. The measure of an advanced, productive market economy is whether it advances personal and household well-being across all parts of a community. In this regard, the goal should be the broader the gains, the better.

Some of us in Whitewater have done well over the last generation, but some of us is an inadequate achievement. How odd that, despite having lived long in this city, a few of us don’t seem to grasp this fundamental economic goal (and moral principle).

Wildfires rage in California and New Mexico:

America, City, Daily Bread, Economy, Housing

Daily Bread for 6.12.24: National Inflation Slows

by  • 

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of 87. Sunrise is 5:15 and sunset 8:34 for 15h 18m 33s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 34.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1889, the worst tornado disaster in Wisconsin history occurs:

The storm virtually leveled New Richmond on the day the Gollmar Brothers Circus came to town. At the time, New Richmond was a prosperous town of 2500 people and one of the most scenic places in Wisconsin. On the day of the storm, the streets were filled with residents and tourists waiting for the afternoon circus parade. Shortly after the circus ended, the tornado passed through the very center of town, completely leveling buildings. Over 300 buildings were damaged or destroyed. Massive amounts of flying debris resulted in multiple deaths in at least 26 different families. In all, the storm claimed 117 lives and caused 150 injuries.

On this day in 1944, American paratroopers of the 101st Airborne Division secure the town of Carentan, Normandy, France.

Good news on national inflation, as Jeff Cox reports Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago:

The consumer price index showed no increase in May as inflation slightly loosened its stubborn grip on the U.S. economy, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The CPI, a broad inflation gauge that measures a basket of goods and services costs across the U.S. economy, held flat on the month though it increased 3.3% from a year ago, according to the department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% monthly gain and a 3.4% annual rate.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% on the month and 3.4% from a year ago, compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 3.5%.

….

Following the report, stock market futures pushed higher while Treasury yields slid.

Though the top-line inflation numbers were lower for both the all-items and core measures, shelter inflation increased 0.4% on the month and was up 5.4% from a year ago. Housing-related numbers have been a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s inflation battle and make up a heavy share of the CPI weighting.

(Emphasis added.)

The cost of shelter continues to increase nationally, forcing the many to pay more of their income to the few for a place to live.

What are Joro spiders and are they dangerous?:

America, City, Daily Bread, Economy, Employment

Daily Bread for 6.7.24: National Job & Wage Growth Robust in May

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be windy with a high of 75. Sunrise is 5:16 and sunset 8:31 for 15h 15m 15s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1776,  Richard Henry Lee presents the “Lee Resolution” to the Continental Congress:

Resolved, That these United Colonies are, and of right ought to be, free and independent States, that they are absolved from all allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain is, and ought to be, totally dissolved.

That it is expedient forthwith to take the most effectual measures for forming foreign Alliances.

That a plan of confederation be prepared and transmitted to the respective Colonies for their consideration and approbation.

Lindsay Dunsmuir reports US job gains blow past expectations, wage growth quickens:

June 7 (Reuters) – The U.S. economy created far more jobs than expected in May and annual wage growth reaccelerated, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing the likelihood the Federal Reserve will be able to start rate cuts in September.
The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.0% from 3.9% in April, reaching a symbolic threshold below which the jobless rate had previously held for 27 straight months.

The unexpectedly strong report made plain that while the labor market has softened around the edges in recent months, its still-solid performance is set to keep the Fed on the sidelines and taking its time in deciding when to begin lowering borrowing costs.
Financial markets slashed the odds of a September rate cut, reducing the probability to about 55% from about 70% before the report, based on rate futures contracts.

These are national figures; they are not local measures of progress. Whitewater’s old guard wasted a generation by which our city has lagged our nation.

These types would like to tell the city they have answers for the next generation’s needs.

Admittedly, they’re right — they do have answers for the next generation: answers as wrong and counter-productive as the ones they’ve been giving for decades. (If they’d advised and guided correctly, longtime residents now in need wouldn’t be bartering for diapers and small appliances on social media.) If these men have but one skill, it hasn’t been in getting conditions right, but instead in shameless self-promotion while they’ve been getting conditions wrong.

Whitewater will see widespread prosperity when she moves away from her stultifying past.

Greater Sage-Grouse:

Greater Sage-Grouse are one of the most iconic birds of the American West. Each spring across the sagebrush steppe, they gather at mating grounds, called leks. There, males perform incredible courtship displays for onlooking females. Experience the magic of sage-grouse from inside a photography blind on a lek in southern Wyoming with Audubon Rockies’ communications manager, Evan Barrientos.

City, Daily Bread, Economy, Employment, Recall, Wisconsin

Daily Bread for 5.17.24: Wisconsin’s April Employment Numbers

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 78. Sunrise is 5:28 and sunset 8:14 for 14h 45m 29s of daytime. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 69.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1673, the Jolliet and Marquette Expedition gets underway as Louis Jolliet, Father Jacques Marquette, and five French voyageurs depart from the mission of St. Ignace, at the head of Lake Michigan, to reconnoiter the Mississippi River. The party traveled in two canoes throughout the summer of 1673, traveling across Wisconsin, down the Mississippi to the Arkansas River, and back again.

On this day in 1973,  televised Watergate hearings begin in the United States Senate.

Eric Gunn reports Wisconsin jobs, employment numbers remained strong in April:

Wisconsin jobs and employment held steady in April, extending a strong economic streak that has been in place for more than two years, according to the state labor department.

“Businesses are still telling us that they are looking for workers,” said Dennis Winters, chief economist at the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development (DWD), at a briefing Thursday on the April jobs numbers. “Anybody that’s out there [has] probably got a pretty good chance of getting a job if they’ve got some skills to offer. We expect that to continue, too.”

The projected number of jobs in Wisconsin reached just under 3.05 million in April, while the unemployment rate fell below 3%.

The monthly statistical projections are based on two surveys conducted by the federal government. Projections about the labor force and employment are based on a household survey that asks people whether they are working or looking for work, among other questions. The jobs numbers are projected from a separate survey asking employers how many people are on their payrolls.

Based on the household survey projections, in April nearly 3.14 million Wisconsin residents were in the state’s labor force, either working or actively seeking work, DWD reported Thursday — 65.6% of the state’s population over the age of 16. Wisconsin’s labor force participation rate for the month was almost three percentage points higher than that of the U.S., 62.7%.

What a shame it would be for Whitewater to cling to ideas from her failed past rather than join in the favorable trends that other communities are now enjoying. And yet, and yet a few tired men would like nothing more than that a community of fifteen thousand should live as though it served only a few.

More to come.

A Mission to Better Understand Earth’s Polar Regions:

America, CDA, City, Daily Bread, Development, Economy

Daily Bread for 5.15.24: National Inflation Rate Improves Slightly

by  • 

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 71. Sunrise is 5:30 and sunset 8:11 for 14h 41m 31s of daytime. The moon is in its first quarter with 50.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School Board meets in closed session shortly after 5 PM, to return to open session thereafter this evening. Whitewater’s Parks & Rec Board meets at 5:30 PM.

On this day in 1911,  in Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey v. United States, the United States Supreme Court declares Standard Oil to be an “unreasonable” monopoly under the Sherman Antitrust Act and orders the company to be broken up.

Rachel Siegel reports Inflation improved slightly in April, with timing for rate cuts still uncertain:

Inflation showed some signs of improvement in April, as policymakers grapple with whether their fight against abnormally high price growth is losing ground.

Data released Wednesday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices rose 3.4 percent in April, compared with the year before. That’s down a bit from the 3.5 percent notched in March, and follows months of hotter-than-expected reports. Prices rose 0.3 percent compared with the month before.

In a particularly encouraging note, a key reading of inflation known as “core” — which strips out more volatile categories like food and energy — rose 0.3 percent. That measure was up 3.6 percent on an annual basis, the lowest year-over-year increase since 2021. Policymakers pay close attention to that gauge because it helps them tease out stickier sources of inflation from the kinds of rising prices that typically bounce around month to month.

If conditions improve nationally, and if that national improvement reaches Whitewater, then what will local policymakers make of that improvement? If conditions do not improve nationally, and that lack of improvement besets Whitewater, then how will local policymakers carry on?

Bringing back policymakers from the failed past will only ensure a failed future. Again, a reminder:

The only reason to return to the policies and leaders of the past would be if someone had no hope of either any possible growth or no hope for ameliorating any possible decline. That is, yesterday’s self-promoting mediocrities would be of value to Whitewater only if nothing anyone did would matter.  See Whitewater’s Still Waiting for That Boom and Now is Whitewater’s Time to Seize an Improving National and State Economy. Only hopelessness among many or the selfishness of a few would lead Whitewater to return to her economic past.

People choose freely, sometimes well, sometimes poorly.

Sage the Miniature Poodle wins Best in Show at the Westminster Kennel Club:

CDA, City, Daily Bread, Economy, Employment

Daily Bread for 5.3.24: National Employment & Inflation

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of 73. Sunrise is 5:44 and sunset 7:58 for 14h 14m 44s of daytime. The moon is a waning crescent with 26.3 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1957,  Walter O’Malley, the owner of the Brooklyn Dodgers, agrees to move the team from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.

National job creation slowed last month, with 175,000 additional jobs created. Additional jobs were created, but fewer than the month before. Is there a silver lining in this? Yes, quite possibly. Jeanna Smialek writes The Fed Is Looking for a Job Market Cool-Down. It Just Got One (‘Wage growth and hiring slowed in April, evidence of the job market slowdown that Federal Reserve officials have been waiting on’):

While inflation is the main thing determining when and how much borrowing costs can come down, Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, made it clear this week that central bankers are also watching what happens with hiring and pay.

Mr. Powell emphasized repeatedly this week that the Fed did not specifically target wage growth when setting policy, but he also suggested that pay gains might need to slow further for inflation to come down sufficiently and in a lasting way — which means that Friday’s numbers could be a welcome development.

“We don’t target wages; we target price inflation,” he said. When it comes to cooling the economy, he said, “part of that will probably be having wage increases move down incrementally toward levels that are more sustainable.”

Stock indexes picked up after the report, as investors welcomed the more moderate data as a sign that interest rates may not stay high for as long. Investors in assets like stocks tend to prefer low rates.

These are national job numbers (with implications for the national inflation rate). Overall, these favorable national figures (job creation, relatively low unemployment, and conditions that may cool inflation).

Locally, however, there is a stark truth about municipal economic & development policy: The only reason to return to the policies and leaders of the past would be if someone had no hope of either any possible growth or no hope for ameliorating any possible decline. That is, yesterday’s self-promoting mediocrities would be of value to Whitewater only if nothing anyone did would matter. See Whitewater’s Still Waiting for That Boom and Now is Whitewater’s Time to Seize an Improving National and State Economy.

Only hopelessness among many or the selfishness of a few would lead Whitewater to return to her economic past.

Semi-truck overturns, hits vehicle amid tornado supercell:

America, Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 4.26.24: National Inflation Rate Stays Stubborn

by  • 

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be cloudy with evening showers and a high of 60. Sunrise is 5:53 and sunset 7:51 for 13h 57m 12s of daytime. The moon is a waning gibbous with 93.5 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1865,  Union cavalry troopers corner and shoot dead John Wilkes Booth, assassin of President Abraham Lincoln, in Virginia:

Asking that his hands be raised to his face so that he could see them, Booth uttered his last words, “Useless, useless,” and as dawn was breaking he died of asphyxiation as a result of his wounds

Jeanna Smialek and Ben Casselman report Stubborn Inflation Could Prod Fed to Keep Rates High for Longer:

The Federal Reserve’s most closely watched inflation measure remained stubborn in March, the latest evidence that price increases are not fading as quickly as policymakers would like, and another reason that interest rates may stay higher for longer.

Investors came into 2024 hopeful that Fed officials would cut rates substantially this year, but those hopes have been fading as inflation has shown much more staying power than expected. Wall Street increasingly sees lower rates coming much later in the year, if the Fed manages to cut them at all.

The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures index reading could keep the Fed on a cautious path as it considers when to lower borrowing costs.

The overall inflation index rose by 2.7 percent in the year through March, up from 2.5 percent in February and slightly more than economists had expected.

….

Investors are now betting that the Fed might make its first move in September or later, based on market pricing, and a small but growing share think that it may not manage to cut rates at all this year.

Massive fire burns at Oceanside Pier in California:

America, Daily Bread, Economy

Daily Bread for 4.10.24: Inflation Remains Stubborn

by  • 

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of 66. Sunrise is 6:18 and sunset 7:32 for 13h 13m 48s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 4.4 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1872, the first Arbor Day (in America) is celebrated in Nebraska.

Jeanna Smialek reports Inflation was quicker than expected in March, likely unwelcome news for the Fed:

A closely watched measure of inflation remained stronger than expected in March, worrying news for Federal Reserve officials who have become increasingly concerned that their progress on lowering prices increases might be stalling.

The surprisingly stubborn inflation reading could raise doubts about when the Fed will be able to start cutting interest rates, and how much they will be able to reduce borrowing costs this year.

The Consumer Price Index climbed 3.8 percent on an annual basis after stripping out food and fuel prices, which economists do in order to get a better sense of the underlying inflation trend. That was stronger than the 3.7 percent increase economists expected, and unchanged from 3.8 percent in February. The monthly reading was also stronger than what economists had forecast.

On an overall basis, the inflation measure climbed 3.5 percent in March from a year earlier, up from 3.2 percent in February and faster than what economists have anticipated. A rise in gas prices contributed to that inflation number.

Lower than it was a year ago, higher than consumers (and the Federal Reserve) would like.

Some cats are bigger than others: