FREE WHITEWATER

Daily Bread for 9.23.26: A Possible Ban on Diesel Exports Reveals the Failure of Federal Policy

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of 67. Sunrise is 6:43 and sunset is 6:50 for 12 hours 7 minutes of daylight. The moon is a waxing gibbous with 89.2 percent of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Comprehensive Plan Work Group meets at 4 PM and there is a Whitewater Forward Comprehensive Plan Final Open House from 6 PM to 7:30 PM.

On this day in 1846, astronomers Urbain Le Verrier, John Couch Adams, and Johann Gottfried Galle collaborate on the discovery of Neptune.


This libertarian blogger has heard, as have so many others across the planet, that Donald J. Trump is a dealmaker. (So much so that someone ghostwrote a book for him on dealmaking.) It seems improbable, however, that a true master dealmaker who claimed he would restrict imports and boost exports might now be looking to ban the export of diesel. Our energy policy is such a fiasco that, in desperation over high diesel costs, the federal government ponders whether to ban diesel exports:

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he backed the idea of a diesel export ban as a way to lower prices that have hit record highs due to a global supply shortage. But analysts and market watchers warn that such a measure would do little to ease high energy prices, and could worsen supply and economic disruptions around the globe.

Trump’s comments come as average US diesel prices have jumped to a record $6.510 a gallon, according to AAA. Diesel is critical to the global economy because it powers transportation, farm equipment and the machinery used to make and move goods.

A ban, however, will make matters worse:

A ban on diesel exports would push up prices of diesel globally, while pushing down prices in the United States and hurting US refining margins, analysts warned.

“Initially, a diesel ban would send global prices skyrocketing… A ban could raise world prices by as much as 100%, given the fuel’s low price elasticity of demand,” said energy economist Philip Verleger.

Any ban would likely push refineries to cut the amount of crude they process. If US refineries cut runs, it would also lower the amount of gasoline and other products produced and push up prices for those fuels, analysts and traders said.

“Banning exports of diesel would drive refiners to cut runs because the physical market they can access would be cut, and no market participant in any market sells product at a loss. While an export ban might have a very short-term impact that lowers price, it would not be long-lived…,” said Kenneth Medlock III, a fellow in Energy and Resource Economics at the Baker Institute for Public Policy.

See Arathy Somasekhar and Liz Hampton, Ban on US diesel exports would hurt, not help fuel markets, analysts say, Reuters, September 22, 2026. See also FREE WHITEWATER, Wisconsin’s Economy Depends on Diesel (and Now Diesel Costs Much More), September 18, 2026.

It was a mistake to mistake a man who said he was a real estate dealmaker for someone who had read and understood even simple market principles. (The local version of this in Whitewater is believing that a few landlords or a lobbyist somehow knew more than others. Paraphrasing a line from a film: The greatest trick that Whitewater’s special-interest men ever pulled was convincing anyone, even themselves, that they had credible economic insights to offer.)

And so, and so, here we are.


Rural voters frustrated by economy under Trump, AP-KFF poll finds:

About half of rural American voters believe the economy is worse off now than when President Donald Trump returned to office, according to a new survey of the key demographic that has largely backed Republicans in recent elections.

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