FREE WHITEWATER

Foreign Affairs

Walter Russell Mead on ‘The Most Important Story of the Day’

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That important story is the topic of Mead’s post on a Conference Board report about China’s slowing growth rate:

….China’s growth is likely to slow to 8.7 percent next year, 6.6 percent in each of the four years after that, and then average 3.5 percent per year between 2017 and 2025. It has long been an article of faith inside China and among most China watchers that the country needs 9 percent growth per year to avoid widespread instability.

If China’s growth decelerates that fast, that far, the biggest question in world politics won’t be how the rest of us will accommodate China’s rise. The question will shift to whether China can last….

Hard to see clearly that far ahead, but if the Conference Board proves right, then Mead will surely be right.

I’ve no dislike for the Chinese people, yet every reason to dislike their oppressive government. Economic competition with China hasn’t been bad, but rather good, for America. She offers much, and spurs us to be more productive (her goods also being the fuel of our greater productivity).

And yet, and yet, there is not the slightest chance – none at all – that China’s meddlesome government can sustain genuine growth of the kind she’s claimed through year upon year of planning. Nor is there the slightest possibility that a one-party state is a moral option for her people, or any other.

I wouldn’t welcome China’s collapse, but I doubt anyone will have occasion to observe China’s supposed, perpetual advance.

Via Walter Russell Mead’s ‘Via Meadia.’

Business, Economy, Free Markets, Laws/Regulations, Planning

How Anti-Dumping Laws are Bad for American Jobs

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Here’s a brief video (perfect for classroom use!) on how anti-dumping laws – designed to protect American jobs from foreign competition — actually inhibit American production, raise Americans’ prices for goods, and stymie domestic job creation.

Restrictions on importation may not be sensible as economic policy, but they’re a great gain for a few protected businesses enriched at everyone else’s expense.

Daily Bread

Daily Bread for 11.8.11

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Good morning,

Rain falls on the Whippet City today with a high temperature of forty-three.

The Wisconsin Historical Society recalls a day of political foolishness in Milwaukee:

1910 – First Socialist Mayor Elected in Milwaukee
On this date Emil Seidel was elected Mayor of Milwaukee. He was the firstsocialist mayor in the City. [Source: Milwaukee County History]

For all the talk about who’s a supposed socialist, there was a time (and for Vermont still is a time) when actual socialists were the socialists of whom people spoke.

How foolish to think that skateboarders are just skateboarders, as Skateboarders rock physics: Experienced riders show gut knowledge of slope speeds.  Bruce Bower reports that

A ball travels faster down a relatively long incline that angles steeply downward in two sections separated by a flat stretch compared with a shorter incline that angles downward modestly but without changing slope. People generally don’t realize this, but experienced skateboarders often do, said psychologist Michael McBeath of Arizona State University in Tempe. Skateboarders call on motor memory to determine intuitively that a sharp early descent creates a speed advantage, he reported November 5 at the annual meeting of the Psychonomic Society.

“This is a hard problem, even for physics professors that we quizzed, but skateboarding experience improves estimates of slope speeds,” McBeath said.

There’s a different problem even slower-moving, non-skaeboarders can try. Google’s puzzle of the day is about a creature of the sea: “A fish that is 1,200 times more poisonous than cyanide can be made into a delicacy requiring many steps of preparation before it’s safe to eat. What is the name of the poison in this fish?”

 

Presidential race 2012

What a prediction market thinks of the Herman Cain scandal

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Over at the prediction market Intrade.com, as of this afternoon, there’s not much reason for concern about Cain’s scandals, because there’s little expectation that Cain will be the GOP nominee.

(He’s fallen over the course of the day, but the distance has been short, as he was never that high anyway.)

Just over 70% expect Romney to be the GOP nominee, and exactly half think Obama will be re-elected.

Scandal or no scandal, a major prediction market still sees 2012 at it did days ago: an Obama-Romney contest.

Crime, Laws/Regulations, Liberty

Regulating Over Prohibiting Marijuana

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From last Monday’s national Libertarian Party message, there’s a proposal to regulate marijuana like wine. Whether it’s regulated like wine or more strictly, the trend against outright prohibition is unmistakable. See, Gallup Reports Record Number in Favor of Legalizing Marijuana Use.

Of those who favor a complete prohibition, two things may be said: they often cannot imagine a change from current policies, yet they’re simultaneously dense to the shifting social views all around them.

Changing views toward medical marijuana are the foundation of a broader change in views toward marijuana:

The United States government has just declared war on medical cannabis, throwing patients and dispensaries into a panic and with good reason. Even those with years of unblemished operations, including some of our finest and most respected MCDs, are being targeted….

Many Libertarians saw this coming when President Bush holdover, Michele Leonhart, boasted she would ignore the administration’s formal medical marijuana guidelines, yet was still appointed to head the DEA….

As a result, our campaign team carefully crafted a revolutionary new voter initiative that will legally allow California to Opt Out of the Controlled Substances Act.

I doubt California will be able to opt out, but I see the political merit in a battle over medical marijuana in America’s largest state. It’s not a battle to win over prohibitionists – that won’t happen. They’ll pass away before they’ll change their views.

There’s a reply to those favoring liberalization that holds that prohibition isn’t just a matter of law and order, but of health and safety. In cases of chronic illness and pain, the health and safety calculus is different and unfavorable to prohibitionists, as sympathy for suffering patients’ actual desires will trump a third party’s insistence on a comprehensive ban.

The California effort is to one to win over those many people who lack strong views on the topic, but have grown tired of wild sums spent on restrictions that seem ineffective, intrusive, and vindictive to medical patients.

Regulations like that for wine, by the way, would assure a safer and better-controlled experience than the actual, futile prohibition now imposed.

I don’t smoke, and I’m not about to start. Yet, in a debate on this subject, there’s neither need nor possibility of winning everyone over. It’s a leg up to see that the dynamic favors liberalization, and that prohibitionists look ever-more strident and unpersuasive to the broader community.

Daily Bread

Daily Bread for 11.07.11

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Good morning,

It’s a partly cloudy day with a high temperature of sixty ahead for Whitewater, and rain likely tonight and tomorrow.

In our small city today, there will be a meeting of the Park & Rec Board at 5 PM.  The meeting agenda is available online.

On this day in 1917, the Bolsheviks seized power, when forces led by Vladimir Lenin overthrew the provisional government of Alexander Kerensky.  The New York Times archive includes a story reporting on the beginning of one of history’s most violent regimes.

There’s a happier anniversary on November 7th: it’s Madame Curie’s birthday. Google has a doodle in her honor, and Wikipedia offers still more on the accomplishments of the two-time Nobel laureate.

Of Google, there’s a daily puzzle you might want to try. They publish a puzzle each day, with a separate search site that readers can use that filters published answers so that one cannot simply search for the correct response.

Here’s the puzzle for 11.07: “If the Statue of Liberty (including pedestal) were measured with the unit of length most common in 2650 BCE, how tall would she be?”

Twitter

Recent Tweets, 10.30 – 11.5

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Cato Institute launches Libertarianism.org | Exploring the theory and history of liberty bit.ly/sxiL2l
4 Nov

She’s done many things right; dating her agent is key mistake Mistakes Hilary Swank Made|Atlantic Wire bit.ly/tqAO3m
4 Nov

Progress or decline? Mark Henschel: Metric system slowly advancing in U.S. bit.ly/uxJc8H
4 Nov

No one comes out well in all this Friday Catblogging: Cat v. Kid « FREE WHITEWATER bit.ly/umpjsb
4 Nov

Great, just great: European Union Scientists Working On Laser To Rip a Hole In Spacetime – Slashdot bit.ly/sgKEmg
4 Nov

Sexagenarian Flynn misunderstands that society now often supports press *or* bystanders with cameras bit.ly/uJsMDJ
3 Nov

Blogging: Write what you believe, defend what you write.
3 Nov

Huffington Post: Wave of deportations leaves thousands of children in foster care huff.to/tVdPkQ
3 Nov

About the size of it: Circular Firing Squad Forms Over Who Leaked the Cain Story – The Atlantic Wire bit.ly/rw9A3F
3 Nov

Gallup: Three in Four Americans Back Obama on Iraq Withdrawal bit.ly/rG5I9N
3 Nov

Why SeaWorld’s orcas don’t have a claim to their freedom under the 13th Amendment (even if they deserve freedom) bit.ly/uQA27J
2 Nov

Fish tacos: they sound odd, but taste delicious Nothing ventured, nothing gained
2 Nov

Outrageous: 18 Arrested in Wisconsin Assembly for Using Cameras |Center for Media and Democracy bit.ly/tQQQNd
2 Nov

Adams on ‘The Shrewd Mr. Flynn’ « FREE WHITEWATER bit.ly/vunxnU
2 Nov

Too funny Left reports on how Right is upset with Romney’s Mormonism HuffPost huff.to/uU9rN7
2 Nov

Copyright troll’s latest problem: US Marshals turned loose to collect $63,720.80 from Righthaven bit.ly/sXEHex
2 Nov

Pretty darn lucky, indeed The Incredible Luck of Mitt Romney – The Atlantic Wire bit.ly/rGq1BJ
1 Nov

Yes RT @bradshorr: The new Google Reader: looks like the designer quit in the middle of the project.
1 Nov

Boo! Scariest Things in *America*, 2011 « FREE WHITEWATER bit.ly/rA66Oo
31 Oct

Boo! Scariest Things in Whitewater, 2011 « FREE WHITEWATER bit.ly/uvidCp
31 Oct

Libertarians

Cato Institute launches Libertarianism.org |Exploring the theory and history of liberty

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LIBERTY.

It’s a simple idea, but it’s also the linchpin of a complex system of values and practices: justice, prosperity, responsibility, toleration, cooperation, and peace. Many people believe that liberty is the core political value of modern civilization itself, the one that gives substance and form to all the other values of social life.

THEY’RE CALLED LIBERTARIANS.

See, Libertarianism.org.

Freedom of Speech, New Media

The Simplicity of Blogging

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The important dynamic for blogging is one that I tweeted about yesterday: write what you believe, and defend what you write. If one writes from conviction, and defends that writing (and the liberty to write), one has a good chance of making one’s way through good times and bad. (In the course of defending something, there’s an opportunity to adjust one’s thinking, too.)

The same cannot be said for those driven by status, situation, social scene: they’ve no internal temperature, and like cold-blooded animals, they’re especially dependent on even slight changes in the weather for their survival.

Blogging often starts out as an alternative to conventional media, but over time persistence takes a toll on conventionality. That’s why in response status quo voices will sometimes imitate the form and style of blogging. When that fails, as it often does, they’ll search for any forum, any medium, to get their message out.

It could not be otherwise. The same desire that formerly motivated people to dominate a social scene will cause them seek new platforms when their old ones are no longer exclusive, or when their old ones are challenged.

That’s not political conventionality’s problem, though: it’s not a lack of a platform that imperils the status quo. It’s the enervation and dissipation that comes from being an exclusive voice, lazy and dull and presumptuous. Social neediness imperils sharp thinking, and to obscure thinking about more than one’s place in a much larger scene than the here-and-now.

The core motivation of conviction, and the impulse to defend those convictions, keeps blogging a clear, persistent, enjoyable pursuit.