Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be mostly sunny with a high of seventy-three.  Sunrise is 6:25 AM and sunset 7:20 PM, for 12h 54m 40s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing gibbous with 53.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1781, traitor Benedict Arnold orders the British soldiers under his command to burn New London, Connecticut.

Recommended for reading in full:

Pollster Nate Silver explains How To Handle An Outlier Poll:

To a first approximation, the best advice is to toss it into the average. Definitely do not assume that it’s the new normal. You don’t need to read dramatically headlined newspaper articles and watch breathless cable news segments about it. In a race with many polls, any one poll should rarely make all that much news. But you shouldn’t “throw out” the poll either. Instead, it should incrementally affect your priors. In the case of the Monmouth poll last week, for instance, you shouldn’t have assumed that the race had suddenly become a three-way tie, but you should have inched up your estimate of how well Sanders and Warren were doing compared with Biden.

For extra credit, pay attention to sample size. The Monmouth poll surveyed only 298 Democratic voters, which is small even by the standards of primary polls (which often survey fewer voters than general election polls do).

….

If a poll shows a significant change in the race, you should tend to presume it’s an outlier unless it’s precipitated by a major news or campaign event.

Corollary: You should be much more open to the possibility that a poll reflects a real change if it’s among the first polls following a major news or campaign event.

What do I mean by a “major” news or campaign event? Some fairly specific types of things. When I made you pinky swear earlier, I was asking you to stick precisely to this list:

1. Debates.
2. Candidates entering or exiting the race, or clinching their nominations.
3. Primary and caucus results (e.g., the Iowa caucuses occur and that has knockoff effects on the next set of states).
4. The conventions.
5. The announcement of vice presidential candidates.
6. The final week of the campaign.
7. Spectacular, blockbuster news events that dominate the news cycle for a week or more. (There generally are only one or two of these per campaign cycle, if that many.)

Nell Greenfieldboyce reports Squirrels Eavesdrop On Birds, Researchers Say:

Squirrels eavesdrop on the casual chitchat of birds to figure out when it’s safe enough to be out in the open and foraging for food.

Researchers have found that a squirrel becomes incredibly vigilant when it hears the shriek of a red-tailed hawk, but it will relax and resume its food-seeking behavior more quickly if the predator’s call is immediately followed by the easygoing tweets of unconcerned birds.

Inside the World of Gourmet Lab Meat:

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-three.  Sunrise is 6:24 AM and sunset 7:22 PM, for 12h 57m 29s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 43.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Landmarks Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1774, the First Continental Congress convenes.

Recommended for reading in full:

Patrick Marley reports An $8 million military project in Wisconsin is losing out to help fund Trump’s border wall:

Wisconsin will forgo $8 million in military spending to help pay for a wall along Mexico’s border.

President Donald Trump’s administration is diverting $3.6 billion from military projects for the wall. According to a document posted online by the Washington Post, $8 million of it will come from a planned small arms range at Truax Field in Madison.

….

“President Trump promised Mexico would pay for his border wall and that’s clearly not true because he is taking money from our military to pay for it,” Sen. Tammy Baldwin said in a statement.

Tory Newmyer writes Trump’s trade war is sinking his promise to revive American manufacturing:

In another sign the president’s crusade against China is hurting the U.S. economy, factory activity shrank in August for the first time in three years, according to a new survey.  

The measures the Institute for Supply Management uses for domestic manufacturing’s health fell nearly across the board. New orders for manufactured goods dropped for the second month in a row to a level not seen since late 2009; production and employment contracted for the first time in three years. Another reporton manufacturing activity — from IHS Markit, also released Tuesday — confirmed the findings, showing the weakest manufacturing activity in nearly a decade.

….

The slowdown in American manufacturing comes as the sector has hit a skid worldwide, a development dating to last year that has grown worse as trade tensions have intensified. But the ISM survey left little doubt that the president’s tariff fight is weighing on manufacturers. Four of 10 respondents that the survey quoted invoked the trade war as a top concern (“While business is strong, there is an undercurrent of fear and alarm regarding the trade wars and a potential recession,” one respondent working in chemical products said.)

(Emphasis in original.)

Mike Allen writes Trump allies raise money to target reporters:

President Trump’s political allies are trying to raise at least $2 million to investigate reporters and editors of the New York Times, Washington Post and other outlets, according to a 3-page fundraising pitch reviewed by Axios.

• The group claims it will slip damaging information about reporters and editors to “friendly media outlets,” such as Breitbart, and traditional media, if possible.
• People involved in raising the funds include GOP consultant Arthur Schwartz and the “loose network” that the NY Times reported last week is targeting journalists. The operations are to be run by undisclosed others.

The prospectus for the new project says it’s “targeting the people producing the news.”

Veteran-centered program saving lives through the power of opportunity:

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be sunny with a high of seventy.  Sunrise is 6:23 AM and sunset 7:23 PM, for 13h 00m 19s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 32.4% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1886, Apache leader Geronimo surrenders at Skeleton Canyon, Arizona.

Recommended for reading in full:

Cary Spivak reports A nonprofit that’s supposed to promote dairy pays its leaders millions — while the farmers who fund it are going out of business:

As the number of dairy farms nationwide has plummeted by nearly 20,000 over the past decade, there’s one corner of the industry doing just fine:

The top executives at Dairy Management Inc., who are paid from farmers’ milk checks.

The Illinois-based nonprofit is charged with promoting milk, cheese and other products — spending nearly $160 million a year collected through federally-mandated payments from dairy farmers.

In 2017, a year in which 503 dairy farms closed in Wisconsin and 1,600 were shuttered nationwide, IRS records show 10 executives at the organization were paid more than $8 million — an average of more than $800,000 each.

Pay for Thomas Gallagher, the group’s CEO, has topped $1 million three times from 2013 to 2017, the most recent year for which data is available, a Milwaukee Journal Sentinel investigation into spending by the group found. His compensation included access to first-class travel and money to cover part of his taxes.

Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Thomas Vilsack, the group’s executive vice president, was paid $800,557 in 2017.

David Sanger and William Broad report North Korea Missile Tests, ‘Very Standard’ to Trump, Show Signs of Advancing Arsenal:

As North Korea fired off a series of missiles in recent months — at least 18 since May — President Trump has repeatedly dismissed their importance as short-range and “very standard” tests. And although he has conceded “there may be a United Nations violation,” the president says any concerns are overblown.

Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, Mr. Trump explained recently, just “likes testing missiles.”

Now, American intelligence officials and outside experts have come to a far different conclusion: that the launchings downplayed by Mr. Trump, including two late last month, have allowed Mr. Kim to test missiles with greater range and maneuverability that could overwhelm American defenses in the region.

Japan’s defense minister, Takeshi Iwaya, told reporters in Tokyo last week that the irregular trajectories of the most recent tests were more evidence of a program designed to defeat the defenses Japan has deployed, with American technology, at sea and on shore.

 Tent Courthouses Along the Border:

Tent courthouses are the administration’s latest move in its “Remain in Mexico” policy, forcing asylum seekers to wait in one of Mexico’s most dangerous states until their hearings. We track the tents’ expansion through satellite imagery — and explain how they could make the asylum process even harder.

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will see occasional thundershowers with a high of eighty-one.  Sunrise is 6:22 AM and sunset 7:25 PM, for 13h 03m 07s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 22.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1783, representatives of Great Britain and the United States of America sign the Treaty of Paris, ending the Revolutionary War.

Recommended for reading in full:

Mark Johnson reports 50,000 unvaccinated children head to Wisconsin schools as the U.S. copes with worst measles outbreak in 27 years:

When Wisconsin children return to school this week, close to 50,000 of them will have waivers that exempt them from vaccines, leaving them vulnerable to measles at a time when the nation has experienced its largest outbreak in 27 years.

Health officials across the U.S. have reported 1,215 cases of measles this year as of Aug. 22, the highest number since 1992, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Measles had been declared eliminated in 2000.

“I really do think it’s purely just dumb luck that this hasn’t spread to Wisconsin,” said James Conway, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health.

Since November 2018, state health officials have investigated 382 suspected cases of measles; not one case has been confirmed.

Immunization rates of 92% to 95% are considered necessary to provide what health officials call “herd immunity.” The term is used to describe a level of immunization high enough to prevent the infection from spreading to those who are susceptible, possibly triggering a widespread outbreak. The vulnerable group includes children under a year who are too young to receive vaccines and children with weakened immune systems.

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Not a single county in 2018 came close to the 92% threshold. In fact, 40 of the 72 counties had immunization rates below 80%.

Laura Santhanam reports How detention causes long-term harm to children:

The relationship between detention and increased mental health problems among children and families has been well-documented, according to Jaime Diaz-Granado, deputy chief executive for the American Psychological Association. His group has called the Trump administration’s rule change “a misguided attempt by this administration to stem the flow across the southern border.”

“The large majority of these children have already experienced trauma before arriving at immigration facilities, and the longer they are held in detention, the more likely their mental health will continue to suffer,” Diaz-Granado said.

Ample research has shown neglect harms children. In 2003, researchers published a series of foundational studies of the children raised in Romania’s orphanages that showed horrible consequences to those children and their society as a result of their institutionalization. Nelson was among the lead authors. When he hears reports of the U.S. separating immigrant children from their caregivers in federal custody, Nelson reflects on Romania where children were dropped off in institutions that had one untrained caregiver for more than a dozen children. “Yes, there are parallels,” he said.

Trying the Chow Mein Sandwich:

Good morning.

Labor Day in Whitewater will be partly sunny, with occasional showers, and a high of seventy-nine.  Sunrise is 6:21 AM and sunset 7:27 PM, for 13h 05m 55s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 13.2% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1945, aboard the United States Navy battleship USS Missouri, officials from the Japanese government sign a formal instrument of surrender.

Recommended for reading in full:

Conservative Michael Gerson writes Don’t try to explain away Trump’s crazy ideas:

This process [of explanation] has a number of steps — the stages of servility. At first, there is stunned silence. (Did he really propose to buy Greenland?) Then the frantic search for hidden wisdom. (Climate change — which the president sometimes views as fake science — will melt Arctic ice, open sea lanes and turn Greenland into the Panama Canal of the north.) Then the determined Googling of historical precedents. (Harry S. Truman, it turns out, also contemplated a Greenland grab.) Then growing defiance. (Greenland has loads of zinc! Doesn’t America deserve zinc?!)

….

But we should not play down the importance of having a president with harebrained notions. We should not explain away the craziness.

Certainly the president should not be allowed to lie away the craziness. In the face of good reporting on Trump’s nuclear idea, his claim of “FAKE NEWS” is entirely unconvincing. We have reached the point where the president’s denial of a charge actually makes it more credible. Recall his suggestion that the “Access Hollywood” tape isn’t real. And the claim that he never said Mexico would pay for the wall. And his claim that he never ordered White House counsel Donald McGahn to fire special counsel Robert S. Mueller III. And his claim that he never said Russia didn’t meddle in the 2016 election. And his claim that he never paid for the silence of a porn star. Self-serving deception by the president is now a justified expectation.

Isis Almeida, Mike Dorning, and Mario Parker report U.S. Farmers Stung by Tariffs Now Face a $3.5 Billion Corn Loss:

American farmers already stung by President Donald Trump’s trade wars now face billions of dollars in potential losses as controversial data from the U.S. government snuffs out a rally in corn.

The Agriculture Department on Monday [8.12.19] said farmers planted a bigger corn area than analysts estimated and pegged crop yields that also exceeded expectations, sparking the biggest rout in futures since 2013. That was a blow to growers who were holding back supplies, hoping a rally that started in May due to delayed sowing would extend through the fall.

The decline represents a potential loss of almost $3.5 billion for U.S. farmers, according to the American Farm Bureau, and is another setback for them after prices fell following the USDA’s previous acreage report, which was widely criticized for containing outdated data.

How To Spot Fake Pokémon Cards:

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be mostly cloudy with a high of seventy-four.  Sunrise is 6:20 AM and sunset 7:28 PM, for 13h 08m 43s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 6.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1972, Bobby Fischer wins the 1972 World Chess Championship: “The first game was played on July 11, 1972. The last game (the 21st) began on August 31, was adjourned after 40 moves, and Spassky resigned the next day without resuming play. Fischer won the match 12½–8½, becoming the eleventh undisputed World Champion.”

Recommended for reading in full:

Craig Gilbert observes Both sides in 2020 election fight are watching farm country for political fallout from Trump tariffs:

Even glimmers of good news come these days with a sobering twist. Milk prices have rebounded a little, but partly because enough farmers have quit that it has reduced milk production, said Matt Lippert, a University of Wisconsin-Extension agricultural agent in Wood County.

Asked to sum up perceptions of tariffs among farmers he talks to, Lippert said:

“Some of them are supportive of the president and say, ‘We just have to be patient. We’ve not been (treated) fair and the president is going to fix it.’ Then some of them are like, ‘We’ve given him enough time already.’ And there are others who are like, ‘No this wasn’t the way ever to do it.’ But they all uniformly think that loss of markets and the tariff thing is hurting them.”

 

(Tariffs are taxes on American consumers and businesses; trade wars bring these taxes. Those who support Trump – a fundamentally ignorant man – delude themselves if they think he offers an economic solution for America, let alone rural America. Those who support him more probably do so for cultural reasons, and yet in this, they are more closely aligned with the worst nativism of our past than a healthy contemporary society.

Note well — even among a supposedly loyal rural demographic, nearly 4 in 10 strongly disapprove of Trump – as many strongly disapprove as strongly approve.)

Elaine Kamarck recounts Trump’s hostility to election security preparedness:

From the very beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump has denied or downplayed Russian interference in the 2016 campaign. He has, at various times, dismissed the whole idea as a hoax, as fake news, or as an excuse by Democrats for why they lost the election. At other times, he has proclaimed his innocence vis-à-vis Russian campaign interference. From the earliest days of his presidency when he fired FBI Director James Comey in an effort to stop the investigation, he has denigrated and dismissed the entire issue. In its place he has insisted that the real problem in 2016 was not Russian interference but rather illegal voting by immigrants. The president’s beliefs have put him at odds with his own government and his own appointees, creating some awkward moments as the machinery of the federal government comes into conflict with the tweets of the chief executive.

Tonight’s Sky for September 2019:

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-two.  Sunrise is 6:19 AM and sunset 7:30 PM, for 13h 11m 30s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.7% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1864, the Battle of Jonesborough, during the Atlanta Campaign, begins as Union troops seize “railroad supply lines into the city. The 1st, 12th, 16th, 17th, 21st, 24th, 25th and 32nd Wisconsin Infantry regiments along with the 5th and 10th Wisconsin Light Artillery batteries fought in this battle.”

Recommended for reading in full:

Patrick Marley and Lee Bergquist report As the fight over Wisconsin’s lame-duck laws rages, the legal tab for taxpayers tops $1 million:

Wisconsin officials from both parties have lawyered up this year at a cost to taxpayers of more than $1 million.

The legal fees will only go up, as was made clear Thursday when Republican lawmakers hired another law firm to assist them in one of several disputes with lawmakers.

It’s the fourth firm they’ve hired since January. Democratic Gov. Tony Evers has hired three firms since then to represent him and other state officials.

The reason for the boost in legal bills: a set of lame-duck laws Republicans approved just before Evers and Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul were sworn in.

Those laws limit the powers of Evers and Kaul and have been the subject of five lawsuits, three of which are ongoing. Those cases have been the main source of the legal bills for taxpayers.

The lame-duck laws also made it easier for legislators to intervene in litigation over state laws. Legislative leaders have tried to insert themselves into four cases since January, helping fuel the rising legal costs.

Steven Elbow reports Labor report chronicles severe decline of unions in Wisconsin:

Republican efforts to eviscerate unions in Wisconsin have been wildly successful, according to a new report that indicates union membership has plunged by more than 50%, more than double the decline nationally.

University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center on Wisconsin Strategy (COWS) released its annual “State of Working Wisconsin” this week, showing that since the passage in 2011 of Act 10 — the law that stripped public unions of bargaining rights — union membership has declined by 53.9%. That’s three times the decrease of 14.9% in neighboring Minnesota. The decrease nationally was 21.2%.

In addition to Act 10, Wisconsin passed a right-to-work law in 2015 that allows union shop workers to decline to pay dues, delivering a blow to the financial position of unions in the private sector as well.

Before Act 10, Wisconsin’s rate of union members was above the national average. That changed in 2012, the year after the law passed.

Last year’s report — which is more detailed on even-numbered years and more a snapshot in odd-numbered years — detailed public-sector union membership rates, which fell from more than 60% since 2010 to 18.9 percent in 2017.

Wildlife center finds foster homes for 400 animals: