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Daily Bread for 5.18.20

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be mostly cloudy with scattered showers and a high of sixty.  Sunrise is 5:27 AM and sunset 8:15 PM, for 14h 47m 21s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 16.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

The Whitewater School District’s distinctions committee meets at 2 PM via audiovisual conferencing. 

 On this day in 1863, the Siege of Vicksburg begins (“seventeen different Wisconsin regiments were involved in the assault that began the next day – “8th, 11th, 12th, 14th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 20th, 23rd, 25th, 27th, 29th and 33rd Wisconsin Infantry regiments and the 1st, 6th and 12th Wisconsin Light Artillery batteries as well as the 2nd Wisconsin Cavalry”).

Recommended for reading in full —

Mike Stobbe and Jason Dearden report Officials release edited coronavirus reopening guidance:

The CDC drafted the reopening guidance more than a month ago and it was initially shelved by the administration, the AP reported last week.

The agency also had prepared even more extensive guidance — about 57 pages of it — that has not been posted.

That longer document, which the AP obtained, would give different organizations specifics about how to reopen while still limiting spread of the virus, including by spacing workers or students 6 feet apart and closing break rooms and cafeterias to limit gatherings. Many of the suggestions already appear on federal websites but they haven’t been presented as reopening advice.

Some health experts and politicians have been pushing for the CDC to release as much guidance as possible to help businesses and organizations decide how to proceed.

“They want to be able to tell their own employees the guidance of the federal government,” Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University, said at a congressional hearing Wednesday. “They want to be able to tell their customers, ‘We’ve done everything that’s been asked of us.’”

Evelyn N. Farkas writes Russia is interfering in our elections again. And Trump supporters are emulating Russian tactics:

U.S. national security experts warned years ago that Russia would meddle in our 2020 elections. The reality is worse: President Trump’s supporters are mirroring Russian tactics.

In 2017, I was attacked by the far right as well as Russian actors after speaking publicly as President Obama’s deputy assistant defense secretary for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia; today, the campaign against me appears to be domestic, albeit aided by Russian trolls. The political stakes are higher for all Americans this year, not just me. The tactics behind these attacks reveal a frightening development for American democracy.

In President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, disinformation and intimidation tactics are commonly used to silence domestic opposition. (So is murder.) False allegations, followed by contradictory, also false, narratives are the norm in Russian media and political discourse. Misinformation is so prevalent that many Russians are largely indifferent to what is actually true. In Trump’s America, similar tactics are taking hold. What began as a disconcerting nexus between Russia and the reactionary right in this and other countries has become part of the American right-wing repertoire.

Healthcare workers turn their backs on Belgium’s prime minister:

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Daily Bread for 5.17.20

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of fifty-seven.  Sunrise is 5:28 AM and sunset 8:13 PM, for 14h 45m 25s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 23.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1673, Louis Jolliet, Father Jacques Marquette, and five French voyageurs depart from the mission of St. Ignace, at the head of Lake Michigan, to reconnoiter the Mississippi River.

Recommended for reading in full —

Margaret Sullivan writes Facebook has a huge truth problem. A high-priced ‘oversight board’ won’t fix it:

Facebook last week announced the formation of a 20-member “oversight board.” The panel will rule on difficult content issues, such as whether specific Facebook or Instagram posts constitute hate speech. Some of its rulings will be binding; other will be considered “guidance.”

….

If gold-plated résumés were the answer, we’d be all set. But as one of the top technology critics in the country, Recode co-founder Kara Swisher, put it recently, they’ve been charged with the impossible — “trying to push back the ocean with one hand.”

To this, I’d add some other concerns. Anyone who has ever served on a committee, especially a large one or one populated with big egos, knows that it’s not an ideal way to get things done.

With rare exceptions, the committee format is unwieldy and inefficient, long on lofty discussions, short on definitive action. And certainly not a proven way to cut through a vast amount of information, take on the thorniest of problems and make hugely important decisions on issues that constantly arise in real time.

….

What’s more, the members’ paid participation may actually end up muting their voices at a time when they could be serving as some of Facebook’s most influential critics.

“They are now effectively within the Facebook corporate tent,” Emily Bell, director of Columbia University’s Tow Center for Digital Journalism, told Columbia Journalism Review. That “buys up potential dissent or criticism.”

Greg Sargent writes The 2016 nightmare is already repeating itself:

The latest developments in the Michael Flynn case should prompt us to revisit one of the most glaring failures in political journalism, one that lends credibility to baseless narratives pushed for purely instrumental purposes, perversely rewarding bad-faith actors in the process.

News accounts constantly claim with no basis that new information “boosts” or “lends ammunition” to a particular political attack, or “raises new questions” about its target. These journalistic conventions are so all-pervasive that we barely notice them.

But they’re extremely pernicious, and they need to stop. They both reflect and grotesquely amplify a tendency that badly misleads readers. That happened widely in 2016, to President Trump’s great benefit. It’s now happening again.

….

When critics say Clinton was unfairly placed on an equivalent plane to Trump in this regard, journalists defensively point out that Democrats must be scrutinized, too. But this misses the objection, which centers not on a demand for light scrutiny of Democrats, but on a criticism of presentation and proportionality, and the ways in which getting that lopsidedly wrong misinforms in a larger and more intangible sense.

Building the World’s Largest Open-Air Museum:

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Daily Bread for 5.16.20

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will be partly cloudy with a high of sixty-seven.  Sunrise is 5:29 AM and sunset 8:12 PM, for 14h 43m 27s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 31.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1913, Woody Herman (American jazz clarinetist, saxophonist, singer, and big band leader) is born.

Recommended for reading in full —

Inae Oh writes McConnell Admits He Was Wrong to Say Obama Left Trump Without Pandemic Plan (‘The former administration left behind a 69-page document’):

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday conceded that he had been “wrong” to claim, as he did during an appearance on the Trump campaign’s YouTube channel earlier this week, that the Obama administration had failed to leave guidance on preparing for a pandemic.

“I was wrong,” the top Senate Republican told Fox News. “They did leave behind a plan. So I clearly made a mistake in that regard.”

McConnell, however, refused to make a judgment on whether President Trump had failed to follow the playbook. “I don’t have any observation about that because I don’t know enough about the details of that to comment on it in any detail.”

But McConnell’s claim of ignorance didn’t stop him from making his false allegation on Monday.

Michelle Hackman and Alison Sider report TSA Preparing to Check Passenger Temperatures at Airports Amid Coronavirus Concerns (‘Travelers would have temperatures checked at about a dozen airports under plans that are still under discussion’):

U.S. officials are preparing to begin checking passengers’ temperatures at roughly a dozen airports as soon as next week, as the coronavirus pandemic has heightened anxieties about travel, according to people familiar with the matter.

Details of the plan are still being completed and are subject to change, the people said. It couldn’t be determined which airports will initially have the new scanning procedures. A senior Trump administration official said the initial rollout is expected to cost less than $20 million, and that passengers won’t be charged an additional fee.

Airlines have been pushing for the Transportation Security Administration to start taking passengers’ temperatures as part of a multifaceted effort to keep potentially sick people from boarding planes and to make passengers feel more comfortable taking trips again. Demand for air travel has dropped more than 90% amid transport restrictions and stay-at-home orders.

Woody Herman, Camel Walk:

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Conspiracy Theories’ Intensity & Drug Tolerance

Drug tolerance occurs when a drug user experiences a lesser reaction to a drug after its repeated use. One solution – although a possibly dangerous and self-defeating one – is to take even more of that same drug as its effects decline. The horde that fanatically follows Trump requires ever-more fantastic claims to produce the same emotional response. Trump and his operatives understand this well (even if they understand little else), and so they craft crazier and crazier claims to excite their needy, addicted base.

Jack Shafer writes about this in Why Trump Is Peddling Extra-Strength Conspiracy Theories (‘The president is doubling his dose of outrageous claims because he worries his audience isn’t responding like it used to’):

Has Trump really turned up the heat or have we just been sitting in his saucepan so long it just feels that way? My intuition tells me that both his supporters and critics have grown numb to his previous rhetorical excesses and need for him to cross new boundaries, violate new taboos, and break fresh panes of glass in order remain engaged. Then there’s the matter of his Trump’s recent dip in the polls, reportedly putting him in a “foul mood.” He knows he can’t charm his way back to better numbers, so he’s trying furiously to stay in the public eye by displaying more ferocity. And don’t forget the Biden problem. “Sleepy Joe,” as Trump often taunts him, has been hiding like a possum in his basement where Trump can’t get to him, and that’s got to frustrate him.

So he keeps harping on China as the responsible party for the 80,000-plus coronavirus deaths in the United States. While offering absolutely no proof for the charge, Trump obscures his own neglect of the pandemic and misdirects culpability to a foreign country. These techniques might not work on you, but that doesn’t bother Trump. His hardcore supporters are the target of the tweets, speeches, pressers and conspiracy theories. The more he does to make himself look persecuted and reviled by the “elites” and the press, the more heroic he appears to his base.

Trump’s fanatical band – bund, one might say – needs stronger and longer hits.

Daily Bread for 5.15.20

Good morning.

Friday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of seventy-four.  Sunrise is 5:30 AM and sunset 8:11 PM, for 14h 41m 27s of daytime.  The moon is a waning crescent with 41.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1776, the Fifth Virginia Convention instructs its Continental Congress delegation to propose a resolution of independence from Great Britain.

Recommended for reading in full —

Scott R. Anderson and Margaret Taylor write The House Prepares to Move Forward With Remote Voting:

On May 13, House Rules Committee Chairman Jim McGovern unveiled H. Res. 965, his latest proposal for implementing some form of remote voting in the House of Representatives in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

….

So how would this plan work? Like its predecessor, H. Res. 965 is still centered on the idea of proxy voting, a practice in which one member of Congress casts a vote on behalf of another. Yet it incorporates changes that address various concerns with and criticisms of that approach—including some we previously put forward.

The revised proposal would provide for special procedures during certain “covered periods[,]” as designated by the speaker in consultation with the minority leader (or their designees). The speaker would be able to make such a designation only after being notified by the sergeant-at-arms, in consultation with the attending physician, that “a public health emergency due to a novel coronavirus is in effect[.]” Any designated “covered period” would last only for 45 days, though the speaker would be free to extend it in intervals of up to an additional 45 days through these same basic procedures. If the sergeant-at-arms and attending physician were ever to notify the speaker that the public health emergency is no longer in effect, the speaker would be obligated to terminate the covered period.

During such a period, any member of the House would be able to designate another member of the House as his or her proxy through a signed letter delivered to the clerk of the House, including through electronic means. No one member would be able to serve as proxy for more than 10 other members, and any member would be able to change this designation through the same procedures. The clerk would also be responsible for informing majority and minority leaders of any such designations or changes and for maintaining a list of designated proxies, which would be made available to the public. A designated proxy would, in turn, only be allowed to cast a vote on a matter or record his or her presence pursuant to “exact instruction[s]” from the member whom the proxy is representing, which the proxy would be obligated to announce prior to doing so. Any individuals voting through a proxy would be counted toward the quorum required for the House to conduct business under relevant congressional rules (and the Constitution’s Quorum Clause).

Separately, during a covered period, House committees and subcommittees would also be authorized to pursue a broad range of their functions remotely—including participating in proceedings, holding hearings and business meetings (which would have to be made open to the public), authoring reports, issuing subpoenas, and voting. The only exception would be for closed and executive sessions, which would still only be able to be held in person.

 The Rise of Instacart and Online Grocery Delivery:

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Practical Implications After Wisconsin v. Palm: The Divide over the Novel Coronavirus

On March 24th, I first began a draft of this post. It seemed to probable then – and it is true now – that Trump would effectually abandon a social distancing or stay-at-home approach, and encourage business as usual to resume promptly. The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s ruling in Wisconsin v. Palm has brought that abandonment to Wisconsin (at least to much of the state absent local health restrictions) in both law and practice.

A few remarks —

Tump may describe the novel coronavirus as an ‘invisible enemy,’ but it’s literally an impersonal enemy; people who think of themselves as ‘warriors,’ etc., will not gain added immunity. Human conduct may slow the speed of this pandemic, but people’s feelings about themselves offer no protection against infection. There’s a lot of childish, magical thinking about infection; nature will take its toll regardless of mere feeling.

This pandemic will bring economic loss and hardship even if businesses re-open. Some but not all demand will return. For many establishments and laborers some but not all will mean business failure and joblessness no matter what Trump says. See Consumer Sentiment, The Reopening Debate Will Turn on Consumer Demand, The Finance 202: American consumers aren’t ready to shop again, even as states reopen, and Again – Consumer Sentiment.

Long after businesses re-open, unemployment is likely to remain at Great Recession levels through next year.

Young and Old. It makes sense that younger, healthier people want to go out, to clubs and concerts. The Tavern League has wanted everyone back yesterday. The claim that patrons should do whatever they want in a bar will not satisfy others who will be near those younger people in grocery or big box stores. The legitimate concern is that club-goers will spread infection in places far beyond clubs.  Photographs of bar and club patrons with no masks, packed together celebrating, will only infuriate residents who are older and taking precautions against infection.

Communities that have town-gown conflicts will see an exacerbation of those tensions.

There are also educational decisions that await Wisconsin communities in the fall, that may be the subject negotiations between Wisconsin’s legislative and executive branches.

Universities may re-open in the fall, but one cannot say with confidence that they will stay open for the ’20-’21 academic year.  In Wisconsin, for most System schools (except perhaps UW-Madsion and UW-Milwaukee), decisions about the fall semester are almost certainly going to be made at the System level.  Wisconsin has long since passed the point of significant local university control. What a local chancellor wants will be far less influential than what the Regents will want.

Unlike universities, K12 education is compulsory for children, making decisions about K12 programs the most sensitive of all public policy decisions. People will forgive almost anything before they’ll forgive the injury or loss of a child. It won’t matter that officials – administrators and or school board members – are otherwise fine people. All those warm feelings will wither if there’s injury to minor children. Officials who have handled other controversies will find this responsibility an order of magnitude greater than anything they’ve handled before. Some districts will have leaders who rise to the moment; other districts will (almost certainly) fall short.

There’s no less enviable role than that of officials who will have to exercise authority over others’ children during a pandemic.

Universities and K12 programs opening in the fall will need protective equipment, testing devices, and organizational discipline greater than these programs have ever before needed (as their number of students is so much larger than during any past contagion).

Writing now in May (with a few months yet to go), there does not look to be a single community in Wisconsin prepared for a return of university, K12, and business life in the fall.

Daily Bread for 5.14.20

Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will be cloudy with showers and a high of sixty-nine.  Sunrise is 5:31 AM and sunset 8:10 PM, for 14h 39m 24s of daytime.  The moon is a waning gibbous with 51% of its visible disk illuminated.

 On this day in 1973, Skylab, America’s first space station, is launched.

Recommended for reading in full —

 Laura Hazard Owen reports Americans say there are two main sources of COVID-19 misinformation: social media and Donald Trump:

A majority of U.S. adults think that misinformation about the the COVID-19 pandemic is a problem, according to survey results released Monday by Gallup and the Knight Foundation. And who are its sources?

Asked to identify the two most common sources of misinformation, a combined 68 percent name social media and 54 percent the Trump administration, though more give the Trump administration as their first response (47 percent) than social media (15 percent).

“82% of Democrats, 79% of independents and 73% of Republicans” think coronavirus misinformation is a major problem — but, not surprisingly, Democrats were vastly more likely to identify the Trump administration as a major source of misinformation (85 percent) than Republicans (4 percent). Meanwhile, 75 percent of Republicans identified mainstream news organizations as the main source of false or misleading coronavirus information, compared to just 2 percent of Democrats. So what you’d expect.

Kiera Butler reports What negative interest rates would mean for your wallet:

Up until this point, the Federal Reserve has never brought its benchmark rate into negative territory and, according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the Fed is not considering going to negative interest rates now.

“The committee’s view on negative rates really has not changed,” Powell said Wednesday. “This is not something that we’re looking at.”

Yet, “on some level, negative interest rates are inevitable in the U.S.,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. “It’s just a matter of when.”

President Donald Trump was advocating for negative interest rates well before the coronavirus pandemic brought the economy to a standstill, arguing that erasing borrowing costs would spur economic growth.

“Negative interest rates sound like fun but it’s nothing to wish for,” McBride said.

“It hasn’t even proven to be effective,” he added. “Parts of Europe have had negative interest rates for seven years and it hasn’t done anything — their economies were reeling then, they’re reeling now.”
And even if the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge one another for short-term borrowing, fell below zero, that is not the rate that consumers pay.

The prime rate, which is the rate that banks extend to their most creditworthy customers, is typically 3 percentage points higher than the federal funds rate.

Should Georgia Reopen? These Pastors Say No:

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Wisconsin Supreme Court: Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm

Embedded below is the decision of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm. On a 4-3 decision, Wisconsin’s highest court has ruled that the Safer at Home order is unenforceable.  (Readers have asked me via email me over the last week how the court might rule.  I have replied to each message that this court was almost certain to rule this way; if anything, a 5-2 majority seemed likely after last week’s oral argument.)

Tomorrow: The practical implications of Wisconsin Legislature v. Palm.

Tonight: The majority and dissenting opinions, below.

[embeddoc url=”https://freewhitewater.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/2020AP765-OA-2020-WI-42.pdf” width=”100%” download=”all” viewer=”google”]

3 Views of the Trump Digital Campaign Operation

Trump’s campaign manager, Brad Parscale, is proud of the digital campaign operation he’s created for Trump’s election. He’s even referred to it (absurdly) as a ‘Death Star’ operation.

Views of the Trump digital offering are mixed.

Dave Weigel sees Trump digital platform as interactively engaging for Trump’s fans

Trump 2020 did not let me go so easily. A news feed let me read the latest messaging, just as it would appear to a reporter on the media list, or the campaign’s curated tweets, which prioritized big names like campaign manager Brad Parscale. An “engage” button educated me on ways to “fight with President Trump,” from hosting a “MAGA Meet Up” to joining the campaign finance committee as a high-dollar bundler. Sharing the app with a friend would award me 100 points, while sharing any news item to Twitter or Facebook would give me a single point. A good prize, like expedited entry at any to-be-scheduled rallies, cost 25,000 points.

The “gamified” Trump app has made some Democrats nervous, not least because Biden hasn’t tried to compete with it. Everything that came from the Trump campaign had an act-fast, as-seen-on-TV feeling

Amanda Carpenter thinks Parscale’s effort is less about the 2020 campaign than it is about a 2021 television launch:

When you think about it, the Trump App might be a less of a tool designed to help Trump win, than a hedge against him losing. Because while it isn’t going to convert undecided voters, it sure looks like an effective vehicle for creating an audience for a new media platform.

It would be the smartest thing his campaign has done, actually: Trump has built a massive data operation that could be turned into a viable media property that could become something like TrumpTV come January 20, 2021. And he got his political donors to foot the bill. Talk about a great kickstarter campaign.

Roger Ailes founded Fox with the vision it would become a powerhouse media ecosystem for Republicans. A new media channel pioneered by a former Republican president with a built-in following could easily be the next step. Trump TV would probably eat Fox’s lunch. He has a more significant and devoted following than any Fox star with access to the entire cosmos of Republican politicians eager to court him. And Fox itself is at a crossroads where its corporate leadership no longer even seems to know whether it wants to ride this tiger.

Besides, why would the millions of Americans who love them some Trump be willing to settle for a throne sniffer like Sean Hannity or a knock-off brand like OANN when they could get the real thing?

Jonathan V. Last thinks that while the electoral value of Parscale’s efforts will be hard to discern, it’s plausible to view the digital offering as a con game with Trump as the mark:

A lot has been written about the Trump campaign’s super-sophisticated digital operation. I am . . . not skeptical, exactly. But let me say this:

Brad Parscale has a very keen interest in making sure that his job is portrayed as being a gigantic, all-powerful black box.

In 2016, Trump cycled through campaign managers at a rapid clip. The only job security Parscale has comes from convincing Trump that he has built some magical machine which no one else—and especially not Old Man Trump—can understand. Or operate.

….

If Trump keeps Parscale around even as he lags Biden in the polls, it’s a sign that the president no longer believes that he is enough to get his voters out on his own and that he’s hostage to whatever sales pitch he bought from Parscale.

It’s a good reminder that inside every con man is a mark.