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Polls, Polls, Polls

In the weeks ahead, we’re sure to hear about dramatic results! or shocking details! from presidential or statewide polls. 

Over at FiveThirtyEight, they’ve 13 Tips For Reading General Election Polls Like A Pro.

All thirteen are instructive, but tips 1 and 2 are especially useful guidelines:

  1. Beware of polls tagged “bombshells” or “stunners.” Any poll described thusly is likely to be an outlier, and outlier polls are usually wrong. Remember those American Research Group polls that had Republican John Kasich climbing rapidly in primary after primary? They were pretty much all wrong; stunners usually are. That said, sometimes they’re right, such as the Des Moines Register poll that projected a large Joni Ernst victory in the 2014 Iowa Senate race, when other polls showed a tighter race. So don’t dismiss outliers, either.
  2. Instead, take an average. I don’t just say this because it’s what we do at FiveThirtyEight. I say it because aggregating polls, especially in general elections, is the method that leads to the most accurate projection of the eventual result most often. Put simply, it’s the best measure of the state of the race….

The full list of tips is well worth heeding. There’s no need to be buffeted about by sketchy surveys and dodgy data; these two months will have their share of both.

Daily Bread for 9.6.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Tuesday in town will be partly cloudy with a high of eighty-nine.  Sunrise is 6:26 AM and sunset is 7:19 PM, for 12h 52m 36s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 22.6% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Alcohol Licensing Committee meets at 6:15 PM, and her Common Council at 6:30 PM.

A century ago, on this day in 1916, Piggly Wiggly opens the first self-service grocery in America:

495px-Piggly-wigglyPiggly Wiggly was the first true self-service grocery store.[3] It was founded on September 6, 1916, at 79 Jefferson Avenue in Memphis, Tennessee, by Clarence Saunders. A replica of the original store has been constructed in the Memphis Pink Palace Museum and Planetarium, a mansion that Saunders built as his private residence, which was later sold to the city.

The origin of the name “Piggly Wiggly” is unknown. When asked why he had chosen it, Saunders said “So people will ask that very question”. Theories include Saunders seeing some pigs struggling to get over a fence, or a reference to the “This Little Piggy” nursery rhyme.[4]

At the time of its founding, grocery stores did not allow their customers to gather their own goods. Instead, a customer would give a list of items to a clerk, who would then go through the store himself, gathering them. Like full-service gas stations, this created a greater cost, therefore higher prices. Piggly Wiggly introduced the innovation of allowing customers to go through the store, gathering their own goods. This cut costs, allowing for lower prices.[5] Others were initially experimenting with this format as well, which initially came to be known as a “grocerteria”, reminding people of cafeterias, another relatively new, self-service idea.[6]

Piggly Wiggly Corporation secured the self-service format and issued franchises to hundreds of grocery retailers for the operation of its stores. The concept of the “self-serving store” was patented[7] by Saunders in 1917. Customers at Piggly Wiggly entered the store through a turnstile and walked through four aisles to view the store’s 605 items sold in packages and organized into departments. The customers selected merchandise as they continued through the maze to the cashier. Instantly, packaging and brand recognition became important to companies and consumers.

JigZone today offers a puzzle of a window:

Daily Bread for 9.5.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Monday in town will be partly cloudy with a high of eighty-six. Sunrise is 6:25 AM and sunset 7:20 PM, for 12h 55m 26s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 15.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1774, the First Continental Congress assembles in Philadelphia:

The First Continental Congress was a meeting of delegates from twelve of the Thirteen Colonies that met on September 5 to October 26, 1774 at Carpenters’ Hall in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, early in the American Revolution. It was called in response to “The passage of the Coercive Acts” (also known as Intolerable Acts by the Colonial Americans) by the British Parliament. The Intolerable Acts had punished Massachusetts for the Boston Tea Party.

The Congress was attended by 56 delegates. The Pennsylvania delegation was appointed by the colonial assembly. Georgia declined to send delegates because they were hoping for British assistance with Native American problems on their frontier and did not want to upset the British.[1]

The Congress met briefly to consider options, including an economic boycott of British trade; rights and grievances; and petitioned King George III for redress of those grievances.

The Congress also called for another Continental Congress in the event that their petition was unsuccessful in halting enforcement of the Intolerable Acts. Their appeal to the Crown had no effect, and so the Second Continental Congresswas convened the following year to organize the defense of the colonies at the onset of the American Revolutionary War. The delegates also urged each colony to set up and train its own militia.

JigZone has a puzzle of a colorful fish for Monday:

A Fishing Trip on Colorado’s Gunnison River

Often, going fishing consists of more talking than actually catching anything. In this short documentary A Fishing Trip on the Gunnison, three members of the conservation organization Trout Unlimited discuss the impacts of irrigation on the beautiful Gunnison River in Colorado. The organization that works with farmers, ranchers, and conservationists to find ways to preserve Colorado waterways.

This film comes to us from the world-traveling web series The Perennial Plate. To learn more about this series, visit its Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter pages.

Via The Atlantic.

Daily Bread for 9.4.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Ted Yoder covers Everybody Wants to Rule the World on a dulcimer. Quite something –

Sunday in town will become increasingly sunny with a high of seventy-nine. Sunrise is 6:24 AM and sunset 7:22 PM, for 12h 58m 15s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 9.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

Friday’s FW poll asked whether readers thought that Vladimir Putin was, in fact, ignorant of the hacking of a major American political party’s servers. Most respondents thought that he was lying (84%), but 16% thought he was ignorant of the hacking’s perpetrators.

On this day in 1884, George Eastman patents the film-roll camera:

George Eastman (July 12, 1854 – March 14, 1932) was an American innovator and entrepreneur who founded the Eastman Kodak Company and popularized the use of roll film, helping to bring photography to the mainstream. Roll film was also the basis for the invention of motion picture film in 1888 by the world’s first film-makers Eadweard Muybridgeand Louis Le Prince, and a few years later by their followers Léon Bouly, William Dickson, Thomas Edison, the Lumière Brothers, and Georges Méliès.

He was a major philanthropist, establishing the Eastman School of Music, and schools of dentistry and medicine at the University of Rochester and in London; contributing to the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and the construction of several buildings at MIT‘s second campus on the Charles River. In addition he made major donations to Tuskegee and Hampton universities, historically black universities in the South. With interests in improving health, he provided funds for clinics in London and other European cities to serve low-income residents….

In 1884, Eastman patented the first film in roll form to prove practicable; he had been tinkering at home to develop it. In 1888, he perfected the Kodak camera, the first camera designed. Eastman was progressive for his era. He promoted Florence McAnaney to be head of the personnel department, one of the first women to hold an executive position in a major U.S. company.

 

 

Daily Bread for 9.3.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Saturday in town will be mostly sunny with a high of seventy-seven. Sunrise is 6:23 AM and sunset is 7:24 PM, for 13h 01m 05s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 4.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1783, representatives of America and Britain sign the Treaty of Paris, formally ending the Revolutionary War:

800px-Treaty_of_Paris_1783_-_last_page_(hi-res)The Treaty of Paris, signed in Paris by representatives of King George III of Great Britain and representatives of theUnited States of America on September 3, 1783, ended the American Revolutionary War. Britain acknowledged the United States to be sovereign and independent. The treaty set the boundaries between the British Empire and the new country, on lines “exceedingly generous” to the United States.[2] Details included fishing rights and restoration of property and prisoners of war.

This treaty, along with the separate peace treaties between Great Britain and the nations that supported the American cause—France, Spain, and the Dutch Republic—are known collectively as the Peace of Paris.[3][4]

….Historians have often commented that the treaty was very generous to the United States in terms of greatly enlarged boundaries. Historians such as Alvord, Harlow, and Ritcheson have emphasized that British generosity was based on a statesmanlike vision of close economic ties between Britain and the United States. The concession of the vast trans-Appalachian region was designed to facilitate the growth of the American population and create lucrative markets for British merchants, without any military or administrative costs to Britain.[14] The point was the United States would become a major trading partner. As the French foreign ministerVergennes later put it, “The English buy peace rather than make it”.[15] Vermont was included within the boundaries because the state of New York insisted that Vermont was a part of New York, although Vermont was then under a government that considered Vermont not to be a part of the United States.[16]

On this day in 1970, Coach Lombardi passes away:

On this date famed Green Bay Packer coach, Vince Lombardi, died at the age of 57. Lombardi played college football at Fordham, where he was one of the legendary “Seven Blocks of Granite.” Lombardi served as coach and general manager for the Green Bay Packers from 1959 to 1967. He directed the team to five NFL championships in seven years (1961-62 and 1965-67). His 1966 and 1967 teams also made history by winning the first two Super Bowls.

Friday Poll – Vladimir Putin: Liar or Ignoramus?

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims he has no idea who hacked the Democratic Party’s email server. (“But I want to tell you again, I don’t know anything about it, and on a state level Russia has never done this.”) Do you believe him?

Is Putin simply ignorant of the matter, or do you think he’s lying?


Embed from Getty Images

Daily Bread for 9.2.16

Good morning, Whitewater.

Friday in town will be partly cloudy with a high of seventy-five. Sunrise is 6:22 AM and sunset is 7:25 PM, for 13h 03m 53s of daytime. The moon is a waxing crescent with 1.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1666, the Great Fire of London began:

The Great Fire of London was a major conflagration that swept through the central parts of the English city of London from Sunday, 2 September to Wednesday, 5 September 1666.[1] The fire gutted the medieval City of London inside the old Roman city wall. It threatened but did not reach the aristocratic district of Westminster, Charles II‘s Palace of Whitehall, and most of the suburban slums.[2] It consumed 13,200 houses, 87 parish churches, St Paul’s Cathedral, and most of the buildings of the City authorities. It is estimated to have destroyed the homes of 70,000 of the City’s 80,000 inhabitants.[3] The death toll is unknown but traditionally thought to have been small, as only six verified deaths were recorded. This reasoning has recently been challenged on the grounds that the deaths of poor and middle-class people were not recorded, while the heat of the fire may have cremated many victims, leaving no recognisable remains. A melted piece of pottery on display at the Museum of London found by archaeologists in Pudding Lane, where the fire started, shows that the temperature reached 1250 °C.[4]

The Great Fire started at the bakery of Thomas Farriner (or Farynor) on Pudding Lane shortly after midnight on Sunday, 2 September and spread rapidly west across the City of London. The major firefighting technique of the time was to create firebreaks by means of demolition; this, however, was critically delayed owing to the indecisiveness of Lord Mayor of London Sir Thomas Bloodworth. By the time that large-scale demolitions were ordered on Sunday night, the wind had already fanned the bakery fire into a firestorm which defeated such measures. The fire pushed north on Monday into the heart of the City. Order in the streets broke down as rumours arose of suspicious foreigners setting fires. The fears of the homeless focused on the French and Dutch, England’s enemies in the ongoing Second Anglo-Dutch War; these substantial immigrant groups became victims of lynchings and street violence. On Tuesday, the fire spread over most of the City, destroying St Paul’s Cathedral and leaping the River Fleet to threaten Charles II’s court at Whitehall, while coordinated firefighting efforts were simultaneously mobilising. The battle to quench the fire is considered to have been won by two factors: the strong east winds died down, and the Tower of London garrison used gunpowder to create effective firebreaks to halt further spread eastward.

The social and economic problems created by the disaster were overwhelming. Evacuation from London and resettlement elsewhere were strongly encouraged by Charles II, who feared a London rebellion amongst the dispossessed refugees. Despite numerous radical proposals, London was reconstructed on essentially the same street plan used before the fire.[5]

JigZone ends the week with a wagon-wheel puzzle: