Good morning.

Thursday in Whitewater will see showers with a high of sixty-three.  Sunrise is 7:07 AM and sunset 7:00 PM, for 11h 53m 19s of daytime.  The moon is in its first quarter with 50.3% of its visible disk illuminated.

It’s Pi Day:

Pi Day is celebrated on March 14th (3/14) around the world. Pi is the symbol used in mathematics to represent a constant — the ratio of the circumference of a circle to its diameter — which is approximately 3.14159. Pi Day is an annual opportunity for math enthusiasts to recite the infinite digits of Pi, talk to their friends about math, and to eat Pie.

Recommended for reading in full:

Paul Rosenzweig writes Four Lessons From the Manafort Sentencing (“This is bad news for Trump, and good news for the system”):

Last week, many commentators were decrying the perceived lenity of Ellis’s sentence. Today Jackson offered a systemic correction. Given Manafort’s age and the severity of his crimes, seven and a half years seems about right. It’s actually on the high end for similar offenses. And given his age, Manafort may well die in jail, which cannot be a happy prospect for him.

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Second, and more important for the American public, the New York authorities have made clear that they are willing to serve as a pardon insurance policy for America.

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Thus, even were Trump to issue a full and complete pardon to Manafort for all the crimes he has committed, that move would not excuse Manafort from answering the New York State charges.

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Third, the New York indictment is not good news for Trump, personally. The Manhattan prosecutor has brought charges of fraud against Manafort for falsely inflating the value of certain real-estate properties he owned for mortgage purposes.  Those allegations find a strong echo in the recent congressional testimony of the former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, who said the president engaged in the exact same course of conduct in his personal capacity—inflating real-estate values to increase his net worth when it suited him, and then deflating those same values to avoid taxation.

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And finally, as bad as this news is for Trump, it is likely even worse news for the Trump Organization—now also possibly in [Manhattan District Attorney] Vance’s crosshairs for real-estate shenanigans.

The Committee to Investigate Russia writes Manafort Lawyer Lies Outside Courthouse:

Paul Manafort‘s attorney Kevin Downing blatantly lied to the media as he stood at microphones outside the DC federal courthouse and announced, “Judge Jackson conceded that there was absolutely no evidence of Russian collusion in this case. So that makes two courts. Two courts have ruled no evidence of any collusion with any Russians.”

In fact, Judge Berman Jackson, made a point of telling the court the matter of collusion was not even under consideration in Manafort’s case. Her effort to prevent Downing from repeating the lie he told the first time around when he spoke to reporters outside the courthouse after Manafort’s Virginia sentencing hearing apparently failed.

Four Motorcycle Stories:

Good morning.

Wednesday in Whitewater will be rainy with a high of fifty-four.  Sunrise is 7:08 AM and sunset 6:59 PM, for 11h 50m 22s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 39.5% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1781, astronomer William Herschel’s observations of Uranus establish that celestial object as a planet:

Sir William Herschel observed Uranus on 13 March 1781 from the garden of his house at 19 New King Street in Bath, Somerset, England (now the Herschel Museum of Astronomy),^[24] and initially reported it (on 26 April 1781) as a comet.^[25] Herschel “engaged in a series of observations on the parallax of the fixed stars”,^[26] using a telescope of his own design.

Recommended for reading in full:

  Charlie Sykes writes Why the Democrats Chose Milwaukee:

“No city in America has stronger ties to socialism than Milwaukee,” declared the executive director of Wisconsin’s GOP. “And with the rise of Bernie Sanders and the embrace of socialism by its newest leaders, the American left has come full circle. It’s only fitting the Democrats would come to Milwaukee.”

Well, yes. And no. Milwaukee has had three Socialist mayors: Emil Seidel (1910–12), Daniel W. Hoan (1916–40), and Frank Zeidler (1948–60). But Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez they were not. Unglamorous municipal officials, they were stolid, competent, somewhat dour practitioners of what became known around here as “sewer socialism.” By modern standards, their policies were not particularly controversial or divisive. Among Hoan’s most radical innovations were public housing, harbor improvements, and a city bus system.

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One Republican insider told me that a better gauge of the current state of play in Wisconsin was the Senate election in which Baldwin decisively defeated her Republican challenger, who ran on an unabashedly pro-Trump platform. Baldwin won Milwaukee County with 71.5 percent of the vote and Dane County with 77.7 percent. She won statewide by more than 10 points and a margin of more than 288,000 votes. If that race really does reflect the political landscape in Wisconsin (and Democrats seem to think that it does), Trump’s reelection is in deep trouble.

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But perhaps the best point of comparison is, simply, 2016. Hillary Clinton famously neglected to visit Wisconsin, and ended up losing it by just 23,000 votes. Trump won rural, blue-collar counties, some of which had voted twice for Barack Obama, and won the Green Bay area by double digits. The key to that race, however, was Milwaukee County. Clinton got about 39,000 fewer votes there than Obama did four years earlier. She didn’t show up to ask for those votes, and she didn’t get them.

So the DNC’s decision to come to Milwaukee was less about “socialism” than it was about those votes, and a commitment to voters that they will show up this time.

  Opportunity’s last images from Mars:

Good morning.

Tuesday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of forty-eight.  Sunrise is 7:10 AM and sunset 6:58 PM, for 11h 47m 27s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 30% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Public Works Committee meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1933, Pres. Roosevelt gives his first Fireside Chat on the radio:

a series of 30 evening radio addresses given by U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt (known colloquially as “FDR”) between 1933 and 1944. Roosevelt spoke with familiarity to millions of Americans about the promulgation of the Emergency Banking Act in response to the banking crisis, the recession, New Deal initiatives, and the course of World War II.

See also text of Fireside Chat, ‘On the Bank Crisis.’

Recommended for reading in full:

Kate Rabinowitz and Kevin Uhrmacher report What Trump proposed in his 2020 budget:

The Trump administration released its 2020 budget request on Monday, proposing major cuts to federal government spending. While the cuts are unlikely to become reality — Congress has rejected many of Trump’s previous requests — the budget is an important signal of the administration’s priorities and suggests a major funding fight in October.

Proposed changes to funding in Trump’s budget

In the document, Trump calls for large budget increases to defense and border security alongside substantial cuts to government benefits. Trump’s budget proposal for the last fiscal year similarly proposed increased defense spending and cuts to other departments. Congress did not act on many of his recommendations. The budget is likely to face even more of an uphill battle with Democrats now in control of the House.

William Gale contends The tax cuts will make fighting future recessions complicated:

the 2017 tax cuts made several changes that significantly reduce the ability to offset the business cycle. First, the corporate income tax rate was reduced from 35 percent to 21 percent. Corporate income tends to soar in booms and plummet in recessions, so lower rates mean that revenues will not adjust as much to our highs and lows in the economy. The tax cuts also reduced rates for income from wages and pass through businesses. As a result, when income falls in a future recession, taxes will fall by less than they otherwise would have.

Next, the tax cuts limits the use of net operating losses. Under prior law, firms losing money owed no income tax for the current year, and they could obtain cash refunds for taxes paid in the previous two years. Firms used this provision more in recessions than in booms, and it served as an automatic stabilizer. To stimulate the economy after the financial crisis, Congress temporarily expanded the carryback period for net operating losses to five years. The 2017 tax cuts, however, repealed carrybacks of losses for most businesses. As a result, as income turns down in a future recession, firms with losses will no longer be able to claim refunds for previous tax payments and therefore will face tighter cash constraints.

  Flame-Throwing Tractors:

Good morning.

Monday in Whitewater will be partly sunny with a high of thirty-seven.  Sunrise is 7:12 AM and sunset 6:56 PM, for 11h 44m 32s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 20.9% of its visible disk illuminated.

Whitewater’s Planning Commission meets at 6 PM.

On this day in 1941, Pres. Roosevelt signs the Lend-Lease Act:

The Lend-Lease policy, formally titled An Act to Promote the Defense of the United States, (Pub.L. 77–11, H.R. 1776, 55 Stat. 31, enacted March 11, 1941)^[1] was an American program to defeat Germany, Japan and Italy by distributing food, oil, and materiel between 1941 and August 1945. The aid went to the United Kingdom, China, and later the Soviet Union, Free France, and other Allied nations. It included warships and warplanes, along with other weaponry.

Recommended for reading in full:

David Leonhardt writes The Experts Keep Getting the Economy Wrong: 

President Trump likes to brag about the supposedly booming economy. So do other Republican politicians. Some journalists have gotten into the habit too, exaggerating the strength of the economic expansion, because it makes for a good story.

Here’s the truth: There is no boom. The economy has been mired in an extended funk since the financial crisis ended in 2010. G.D.P. growth still has not reached 3 percent in any year, and 3 percent isn’t a very high bar.

Last week, while attending an economics conference in Washington, I discovered one particularly clear sign of the economy’s struggles — namely, that it keeps performing worse than the experts have predicted. I put together this chart to show the trend:

Again and again, Federal Reserve officials have overestimated how quickly the economy would grow. They keep having to revise their forecasts downward, only to discover that they didn’t go far enough down. Economists on Wall Street and other parts of the private sector have made the same mistake.

  Rebecca Shabad reports House passes Democratic ethics and election law overhaul bill:

The 444-page bill was the first priority of the House Democratic agenda, which includes efforts to lower the cost of prescription drugs and craft an infrastructure package.

To make it easier to vote, the new bill proposes a range of reforms such as requiring that states institute automatic voter registration for eligible unregistered citizens and requiring at least 15 days of early voting across the country. It would also prohibit voter roll purges and ensure that people who have completed felony sentences can vote again.

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The Democratic proposal would also expand a conflict of interest law and divestment requirements for public officials. The bill would require presidential candidates and the president to disclose their tax returns, and it would prevent members of Congress from serving on corporate boards, among other things.

The Peasant Who Became an Emperor:

Good morning.

Sunday in Whitewater will be cloudy with a high of thirty-seven.  Sunrise is 7:14 AM and sunset 6:55 PM, for 11h 41m 37s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 14% of its visible disk illuminated.

On this day in 1864, the Red River campaign begins in Louisiana:

The Red River Campaign took place in Louisiana and Texas. At a crucial moment in the campaign, Wisconsin Captain Joseph Bailey (1827-1867) of Wisconsin Dells freed 60 stranded transport ships and their accompanying ironclad gunboats as Confederate troops approached to capture them. The 8th, 14th, 23rd, 29th and 33rd Wisconsin Infantry regiments and the 1st Wisconsin Light Artillery participated in the Red River Campaign. The Red River expedition lasted until May 22.

Recommended for reading in full:

  Ron Brownstein writes Trump Settles on His Reelection Message (“I’ll protect you” is the new “I alone can fix it”):

In his marathon speech to a gathering of conservative activists last weekend, Donald Trump unloaded more than 16,000 words, according to the official White House transcript.

But amid all the meandering and asides, the belittling taunts (“Little Shifty Schiff” for Democratic Representative Adam Schiff) and geysers of grievance, Trump may have synthesized the essence of his reelection strategy in just three words toward the back end of his two-hour harangue: “I’ll protect you.”

With that concise phrase, Trump revealed volumes about his view of the electorate and the coalition that he hopes will carry him to a second term. The comment underscored his determination to convince his followers of a two-stage proposition: First, that they are “under siege,” as he put it, by an array of forces that he presented as either hostile to their interests or contemptuous of their values, and second, that only he can shield them from those threats.

That dark and martial message shows that Trump continues to prioritize energizing his core supporters—blue-collar, older, and nonurban whites uneasy about demographic, cultural, and economic change—even at the price of further alienating voters dismayed or disgusted by his behavior as president.

  Margaret Sullivan contends It’s time — high time — to take Fox News’s destructive role in America seriously:

Given First Amendment protections, Fox News can do pretty much what it wants on the air. It can shrug at Hannity’s excesses. It can allow Tucker Carlson’s misleading rants on immigrants and crime. It can constantly undermine special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Trump.

….

What Fox News has become is destructive. To state the obvious: Democracy, if it’s going to function, needs to be based on a shared set of facts, and the news media’s role is to seek out and deliver those facts.

And, of course, to double down on its mission, described aptly by my colleague Greg Sargent: “Fox News is fundamentally in the business of spreading disinformation, as opposed to conservative reportage.” And that disinformation “is plainly about deceiving millions into believing that core functionings of our government — whether law enforcement or congressional oversight — no longer have any legitimacy.”

Playing Instruments Made From Ice:

Good morning.

Saturday in Whitewater will rainy in the afternoon with a daytime high of thirty-eight.  Sunrise is 6:15 AM and sunset 5:54 PM, for 11h 38m 49s of daytime.  The moon is a waxing crescent with 8.1% of its visible disk illuminated.

There is a scheduled forum for common council candidates at 10 AM, and another for school board candidates at 1 PM, at Whitewater’s city hall.

On this day in 1862, two ironclad warships (each under steam power) fight for the first time:

The major significance of the battle is that it was the first meeting in combat of ironclad warships, i.e., USS Monitor and CSS Virginia. The Confederate fleet consisted of the ironclad ram Virginia (built from the remnants of the under-construction steam frigate USS Merrimack, newest warship for the United States Navy / Union Navy) and several supporting vessels. On the first day of battle, they were opposed by several conventional, wooden-hulled ships of the Union Navy. On that day, Virginia was able to destroy two ships of the federal flotilla, USS Congress and USS Cumberland, and was about to attack a third, USS Minnesota, which had run aground. However, the action was halted by darkness and falling tide

….

During the night, however, the ironclad Monitor had arrived and had taken a position to defend Minnesota. When Virginia approached, Monitor intercepted her. The two ironclads fought for about three hours, with neither being able to inflict significant damage on the other. The duel ended indecisively, Virginia returning to her home at the Gosport Navy Yard for repairs and strengthening, and Monitor to her station defending Minnesota. 

Recommended for reading in full:

  Paul C. Light considers How the House should investigate the Trump administration (“Lessons from the most important House probes since WWII”):

1. Longer investigations had roughly equal levels of moderate to very significant impact as shorter (33 percent and 32 percent respectively), but longer investigations produced a higher count of very significant impact than shorter (three to one).
2. Bipartisan investigations had twice the impact of partisan investigations (50 percent to 26 percent).
3. Broader investigations had more than three times the impact of narrower investigations (67 percent to 18 percent).
4. Thorough investigations had almost six times the impact of narrower investigations (62 percent to 11 percent).
5. Investigations with high freedom had 10 times the impact of investigations with less freedom (60 percent to six percent).
6. Highly visible investigations had twice the impact than of visible investigations (40 percent to 18 percent).
7. Investigations led by experienced chairs had almost twice the impact of investigations with less experienced chairs (50 percent to 28 percent).
8. Serious investigations had more than four times the impact of less serious investigations (53 percent to 12 percent).
9. High- and low-leverage investigations had roughly equal levels of impact (33 percent to 30 percent), but high-leverage produced a higher count of very significant investigations (seven to three).
10. Durable investigations had almost five times the impact of less durable investigations (70 to 15 percent).

  Flying Squirrels: